"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."
Thus spoke Franklin D. Roosevelt 75 years ago.
Looking back on Roosevelt's speech in 1933, 4 years after the infamous crash of '29, he was referring to the economic conditions of the time -- better known as The Great Depression. In essence he was saying that if we can't shake our pessimistic economic outlook, it will be tough to turn things around.
The question is... are things different this time?
The answer is yes and no. People are still fearful of what the future holds and they have very little confidence in the economy. The big difference between the crash of '08 and the crash of '29 is that we now have India and China on the world stage. Back in '29, both of these countries were not on the radar. In fact India was under British Rule.
Both India and China's economies will suffer with the turn down here in the US. They are now going to have to generate their own domestic consumption patterns for the goods and services they formerly sold to the US. This is going to be hard to do as so much of their economy is based on exports which are evaporating quickly.
The fact of the matter is that the markets are extraordinarily turbulent. We do not expect, even with the worldwide bailout, for things will be rosy again anytime soon. However, that does not rule out some extraordinary trading opportunities in the markets. This is a time for rational thinking. It is also a time to eliminate fear from trading.
There is no need for fear in one's trading plan if you're running with a diversified program that has proven to
be successful over time. What I mean by over time is not just the last six months, or six years, but over a long period of time I mean as much as 30 years.
When you have a program that puts the odds on your side, you can trade with confidence knowing that you're going to lose some small skirmishes in the market, but overall you will make money based on your own trading decisions.
Many of you know that we trade using MarketClub's "Trade Triangle" technology. This approach has proven successful in all types of markets, including the ones we are in now.
I've put together a short 12 minute video to show you how we have fared in three different markets using this technology.
For a small percentage of you, this video will be an eye-opening experience. For another percentage of you, you are already fearless MarketClub members. There will also be some of you that are successful traders using your own system, and there is probably no need to watch this video.
Trading should be an unemotional experience. If you are trading for the excitement, odds are you're going to lose. If you are trading just to say that you trade, you're probably going to lose. If your trade for any other reason than to make money, you're probably going to lose.
The possibility of successfully trading any market is out there. This video will show you how our unemotional, time tested approach to the stock, future, forex, etf, and mutual fund market will put the odds in your favor that you are on the right side of these extraordinary trading times.
"The only limits to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today."
Franklin D. Roosevelt
Every success,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Dear Adam,
Many thanks for these fantastic lessons & videos, helping us to better undertstand the market.
I have a question for you : in your video about fear, you don't trade crude oil as others (gold & dollar index). Indeed, you don't follow one scale for timing and another one for timing : you trade on the weekly, buying betwwen a green to a red triangle, then selling between ths red triangle to the next green triangle. Doing so, you don't care about the trend on the monthly. Can you explain it to me ?
Thanks in advance & regards from France 😉
Bon Jour Eric,
For gold, the weekly for trend and the daily for timing seems to work out best in the long run. You could of course use the monthly as an additional filter but that takes away from the weekly's ability to spot turns quickly. Hope this helps. Adam