Is this a bear market rally or is it a true upside reversal?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Check out my new video where you will find precise turning points on the major indices. You will also see and hear where we expect the major indices to head in the next six to twelve months.

Click here to watch.

Let me know what you think. You can leave your comments right here on this blog.

Enjoy the video.

Adam Hewison

President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

How to tell or refer a friend (short video)

23 thoughts on “Is this a bear market rally or is it a true upside reversal?”

  4. nice of him to take a look at your comments. i have also been waiting for a response to that question, yet none

  5. Hi I'm trading HSI Futures and as it today HSI has gone pass 61.8% of re tracement. Does it mean that HSI is turning to be Bullish

    Thanks
    Rohan

  6. Hi Adam,
    Nice video. Do you follow Elliott wave charts and try to use those in your tech. analysis as well?
    Thanks

    1. Inq,

      Thank you for your feedback. I first learned about the Elliott wave theory about 30 some years ago and quite frankly I was astounded at its simplicity.

      I believe if you look at Elliott Wave in a very straightforward simple way you can do well. Having said that most people get tied up in the ABC counts and all the other intricacies of the sub waves, and the sub sub waves.

      I am a bigger fan of the Fibonacci rules and how they apply to markets.

      All the best,
      Adam

  7. Great analysis, Adam, and many Elliot wavers agree with your assessment. I'm new to this Fibonacci retracement stuff although I have learned a few things by osmosis. I noticed you considered the February high as the point to calculate your Fib retracements from, rather than the January highs, or even the early November highs. My question is: How do you determine which high and which low to use when calculating the Fib retracements?

    Also, I read elsewhere that the Fib retracements are not very useful unless used in conjunction with Elliot wave analysis or some other indicators. Their contention is that relying on Fib retracements alone is not very effective for making trading decisions. Your thoughts?

    1. Brian,

      Thank you for your feedback. There are several different ways in which to use Fibonacci. The way I use Fibonacci is as follows, I take the most significant high and low I can find and measure from those points. This is particularly true when I can see a previous retracement level that has taken place.

      To answer your question in regards to the fib retracement's versus the Elliott wave analysis and other indicators. I think the Fibonacci retracement levels are incredibly powerful when you use them in conjunction with our Trade Triangle technology. You can also use the fib retracement's with other indicators such as the MACD or Welles Wilder's SAR indicator.

      Hope this helps.

      Adam

  8. Very clear & concise info. Well done Adam. Which reminds me, as an Aussie, when are you going to expand your services to cover the S&P ASX 200 ???

    1. Peter,

      Thank you for your compliment I appreciated it. We have the Aussie markets in our sights, however, we have been very busy creating a new charting program that quite frankly is going to blow your socks off.

      We expect to debut the charting program this week on the MarketClub.com

      All the best to you.

      Adam

  9. Agree, excellent overview and wrap-up of the key features of the market and a good framework for me to meet the market start up. Pedagogically very powerful to use "live" visuals... I am new to this side and have not followed things way back - but would be great to see a variety of different technical indicators (apart from trend lines, support-resistance and fibonacci) being presented and tested showing their particular value to hourly/daily/weekely chart analysis.... thx Sorensen

  11. Your analysis is extremely valuable, especially since the major news outlets are so consistently wrong.

  12. I agree with Adam that its just a temp pullback,
    to be more precise its operators driven rally.
    I know there are no logics in the game of stock market
    but see the fact that citi has posted profit in the first
    month n we havent seen the rally then and suddenly in the second month
    market is moving like anything in 3 consecutive days. Did u buy this argument that a sub $1 stock is moving global indices. I mean citi should not be even standing in DJIA.
    Adam sir, I would appreciate your comments on this.
    Regards
    Ashu

  13. Much appreciate the clear and concise analysis and your conclusion. It sure doesn't look good - at best, the bear bottoming process may be continuing as opposed to another leg down - but that is more my hope than analysis.

    Would appreciate knowing why you choose Fib ratios ( a bias based on proven experience?)for your analysis. As you know 50% is not a fib ratio - are you giving it more weight because of the strength of this bear, rather than the 62% area which is a true Fib ratio?

    Thanks again for your timely presentation. Ron

    1. Ron,

      Thank you for your feedback. I learned how to use the Fibonacci ratios/retracements on the floor of the exchange in Chicago where I was a member.

      I have found them to be as reliable as any other indicator in the marketplace. I'm still astounded after all this time that they continue to work very well. Everyone has seen the levels that I'm looking at based on my blog posting.

      We will have to see how this works out. I think somewhere between the 50 and 62% area is going to be thin air for these markets.

      All the best.
      Adam

  14. Adam,
    I am new to market club. Regarding your Fibonacci Analysis I have a question. Why did you choose the high the way you have chosen it. I have been of the opinion that you use the highest high of the period. Can you explain? Thanks

    1. Peter,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      I chose the high based on my experience in the marketplace and also because it was a rally from a previous low. When you say you have always been of the opinion to use the highest high. My question to you is what period are you looking at?

      Fibonacci ratios can be used in intra-day, daily, weekly and monthly charts. It is all relative to the your own timeframe of trading.

      I hope this helps.

      All the best,
      Adam

  17. Terrific presentation. Of course it is: you agree with me. I see a whole new direction and political and economic "ethic" for this country. Our political leadership is turning us into England prior to the arrival of Margaret Thatcher. They are doing it, in part, under the guise of the economic hardships we are facing. But make no mistake about it: the left wing of the Democratic party is running this country and may be doing so for many years to come. The net result will be a long term bear market. A 500 S&P? You bet. Thanks for your help in the investing world.

    What is your position on the uptick rule?

  18. Hi Adam,

    Great video, totally convincing!

    Lets not forget, this is another government intervened rally.

    thanks,
    Ravi

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