Bill Poulos didn't get the response from everyone that he expected so he asked if he could come back and "really teach people what I know". So this time around he's talking about Fundamental versus Technical Analysis in the Forex markets. I also wanted him to give away some more free stuff so he's agreed to give away the chance to win a free copy of his soon to be released Forex Income Engine 2.0 course, enter here for free!
So please try to win a free copy of his course, and give him a warm welcome with the comments!!
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Forex traders have today a wealth of information from which to evaluate and select potential trades (some would argue too much information). These markets are moved by two primary forces: Fundamental forces (balance of trade data, money supply, interest rates, economic and financial reports, etc.) and Technical forces.
While many traders advocate fundamental analysis-based trading, it should be argued that this style of trading is very difficult especially for people who have little time to trade (less than an hour a day), or who are new to trading Forex.
Fundamental analysis traders tend to be 'always on' -- or, day trading because it requires PRECISE timing to move with the markets. If you can't get to your trading platform the minute a 'surprise' report hits the newswire, you'll be too far behind the action to respond to it.
That's because the markets are always taking in new financial and economic information from around the globe -- and they are continuously reacting to it to the minute.
Trading on Fundamental Analysis means understanding that the underlying data is NOT important -- what is important is the market's reaction to that data. Remember that most fundamental data is 'projected' - the actual release of fundamental news only acts to confirm or change those projections. Thus the 'timing' of fundamental analysis if of greater importance and leads to shorter term profits or loss due to the swing in market reaction.
Trading on Technical Analysis, however, gives you maneuverability in the markets. Technical Analysis is designed to reflect fundamental analysis in the current market price -- in other words, the market is doing the fundamental work for you. What you are doing is riding a trend based on the trend meeting certain criteria (known as conditions).
Technical Analysis will allow you to identify, confirm and enter a trend with enough time in the trend to generate profit potential. Technical Analysis will also identify, confirm and help you exit a trend that has run its course. In both cases, the action of the price in the Forex markets will dictate what moves you will make.
Thus, using a good trading method based on technical analysis is a less demanding way to trade Forex with far greater odds of success.Using Technical Indicators to trade Forex
But did you know there are currently more than 100 technical indicators that you can use when trading Forex? Most charting software programs and packages available will provide all of these indicators to you -- but the most confusing question is always: which ones should I use?
There is no magic in technical indicators in and of themselves as they each can tell you something about the market's behaviour at any given point in time. Nor is it true that any one indicator is better than another.
What is key to using technical indicators successfully is to select only a few that complement one another and use them in an uncommon manner along with powerful trading tactics.
Most trading methods share the technical indicators they utilize for identifying potential trades -- the key to being successful with these indicators is to understand their application and their impact on the selection of trade.
The tendency for many amateur traders, however, is to over-complicate this process. They want to use too many indicators or patterns, and they think that success is dependent upon something being highly complex. Nothing could be further from the truth -- in fact, simple is better:
1. Using too many or the wrong indicators is counterproductive, as the information that those indicators provide is often counter intuitive and just plain misleading.
2. Using a few simple indicators in a uniquely powerful way can provide the
right information necessary to make good trading decisions.
3. With the right indicators and patterns, you will be far more likely to trade with discipline because you will be able to understand an objective set of rules that the right indicators and patterns can provide.
In short, you are best off keeping it simple and applying a smaller set of indicators to identify the strongest possible trades -- and avoid making 'complexity' a qualifier for determining whether a method will work or not. You'll likely find that the simpler the method, the more successful you'll be with it.
Bill Poulos
Please try to win one of my Forex Income Engine 2.0 course, here for free!
I like what i have just read. It is straight to the point and simple.
It seems to me that traders, especially those learning the ropes, should concentrate on both Fundamental and Technical analysis. The information required to trade the former seems to be more generally available and easy to track though whipsaw can make the risks involved greater. Every trader can position themselves at the generally known time to seek the available opportunities.
The knowledge required and the sources of information required to adopt the technical style are much more extensive. It requires some time to determine suitable indicators. However it seems that whoever that aspires to be a proficient trader must strive to master Technical analysis but with some knowledge of Fundamental analysis, not necessarily to exploit the usual spikes that follow the news release, but to determine the trend thereafter.
Please keep educating us. we appreciate you.
I think there is no better among those two strategies. Fundamental and technical analysis has still some pros and cons. The best way to trade forex is to use both of them.
Under present conditions, fundamental analysis is totally worthless as it is based on deliberate malinformation from news sources. Secondly;technical analysis is at the mercy of sudden whip saws from the same prime sources. Top that Bill, Doc!!
Glad you came back, Bill! Excellent article!
I've heard and read a great deal of discussion on which is most important. Fundamental or Technical. While it is a matter of opinion with many traders, I would agree with you and, in fact, look more to the Technical indicators to help me decide which trades to make.
There is much for me to learn. However, whenever I can receive the guidance from someone who is willing to help others by offering advice and important information, then I'm going to pay attention.
Alex Boone
This is a good commentary and agrees with what Barbara Rockefeller says in her book Technical Analysis for Dummies. I think she too is a Forex trader.
Jim Teichroeb! HP, NRC?
look me up, I'm still in Ottawa
Peter B