Not an impressive day in the equity markets

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Not an impressive close in the equity markets today. My gut feeling is this market can have a tumble on Friday.

If the equity markets take out Wednesday's low, look for scramble by the bulls for the exit doors.

No matter what tomorrow is going to produce a big move one way or the other. My guess is going to be on the downside.

All the best,

Adam

23 thoughts on “Not an impressive day in the equity markets”

  1. MY PATTEN PROGRAM SAYS THAT ON TUESDAY JUNE 23 THE MARKET WILL CLOSE

    HIGHER THAN THE CLOSE ON MONDAY JUNE 22.

    I AM GUIDED BY HISTORICAL PRICE-VOLUME PATTERNS, NOT

    SOOTHSAYERS OR GUT FEELERS. THERE MUST BE A ANALYTICAL BACKUP

    FOR PREDICTIONS. I COMPARE PATTERNS GOING BACK 22 YEARS.

    90 % ACCURATE, TRYING TO PERFECT MY PROGRAM TO 100%. GOOD LUCK TO ALL.

    ENJOY GUESSING.

    LADY CHARTES.

  2. there will be big movement up for all curencies and for the USD/JPY it will reach 98.25 the it will go down again to reach around 97.55

    regards

  3. I am sure that USD will raise against the JPY and will reach 98.25 in

    the beginning of next week then it will go down again to close at 97.60

  4. Interesting prediction - seems as if the large speculators agree - they currently have a massive long position (in fact unmatched in recent years) in VIX futures

  5. We are "guessing" what the market is going to do? It looks to me like the market bounced off of the 200 day moving average. What happened to 500 on the S&P? All of your "technicals" indicated down, so who do we follow? Technicals? A guess? Fundamentals? A combination? Or just let the market tell us what to do....

  7. We just have to wait for support to break before going Short.
    Until then, stay Long with tight stops.

  8. I appreciate Adam's original post and all the comments and views above. Obviously there are conflicting reports of new data - housing, employment, resource prices, etc. Nobody can know the fundamentals or even how new facts will be interpreted/received, so let's focus on the technicals.

    Adam:
    - What was "not impressive" about the up movement today - please explain so we can learn to look for what you can see.
    - Do we need to break below 910.71, close below it or... what, to trigger the trade triangle to close long positions or even stronger, to go short?
    - Do we have to wait for a monthly triangle to go short? That would be around 769, 16% down from here.

    Thanks!

    1. Adam, can you address these questions, please? Thanks - we all appreciate your insights.

  9. It is precisely bec every one thinks its going down that it wouldn't - this mkt has been an animal... killing all shorters.

  10. is it "herd mentality"..."manipulation" that has become ingrown..?
    such as the run on banks...
    or the belief that we're on the first steps of the "yellow road"...
    cramer is barking...
    "buy C..at $3. it's a bargain..."
    if i'm looking at a pivot point of $3.11 and C passed that both ways..
    2.75 support/next @ 2.35 then 1.90...where it belongs as it is really broke aside from WH connection...
    resist @ 3.41..next @ 3.71...t ..
    just after diminution of "worth"...
    then look at worth of other banks...the momentary hot spot...zilch..
    it rises... slithers...is "prepped" to sustain...
    constant debate: "correction or major turn?"...spots of "humor"..
    a game...based upon anticipation...self-identity problems/questions/support...territorial imperatives ... need for analytics beyond immediate stage...
    but...adam...you are correct...it will fall...retrace...
    every mountain built in last few years had foundation of imagination/air/and everyone joins the parade after it has passed...wachovia looked like a charm in the "muck" at 75 cents before well fargo came by...and now no one wants to know what will happen when all the accounting is included..
    gee..sorry for the excess of words...we should all know we are playing "the cards that were dealt" by our own hands...
    this all was on the menu...and every movement creates it's own cycle c/o human behavior...
    which give us till july...have fun...

  12. Ya truly nothing can be read into todays market; todays NYSE is volume is about 1B.

    Adam,

    How do you read the low volume very thin trading range markets during last 7-10 trading days that too after huge rally?

    Has something like this happened in the past to your memory?

    Thanks,
    Ravi

  13. the market is a 4x option expiry tomorrow...not likely down imo.
    and then we begin to run into month end/2nd Q end and 1/2 Yr. end....i think the banks et al are going to keep the markets up until early july to make those reports look well....and to make sure the mutual funds don't see too much cash sitting on the sidelines during this rally. that would look bad now would't it?
    clearly the markets are heavily manipulated (banks need to pay back and raise capital etc) so manipulating into quarter end seems only too logical given the time line.
    THEY might allow a correct for 3-4 days next week..wow..even all week!! what a deal.
    is this the only time in market history aht there has been a rally of more then 25% during a deep recession?? we are now at like 40% rally without a break to speak of well 4-5% maybe now.
    the fed and gov't is in a real bind....strong dollar and market goes down...dead green shoots to the most visible marker of the 'end of the recession' (ha). or, allow the inflation talk to continue andweaken dollar and market goes up...hard to have it both ways indeed.

    macro seems to be trumping technicals and cycles these days.

    what do you think about this??

  14. My guess is down. I can't believe that people are buying or holding stocks. The economy will get worse. People are just greedy.

  15. Thanks for posting Adam. And I do agree, we should have some volatility come back into the market on Friday and that just adds to the chance of a bearish slide.

    Thanks for all your help!

  16. Thanks Adam.

    For what it is worth Adam it looks that way to me too.

    I just spent the whole morning trading EURUSD short losing my shirt but it is now in the black and if EURUSD decisively breaks 1.3910 as it appears to be doing it could go to 1.3600.

    Since SPX has been trading in tandem with EURUSD (for reasons unknown) this indicates your gut feeling is likely to be right.

    So we will see how smart (or not) we are tomorrow.

    Of course these things are all probabilities so it is an issue of discipline regardless of trading outcome pr stated more simply it is all about process.

    Thanks for your timely observation.

    Pat.

  17. Interesting you say tomorrow will produce a big move either way. I don't know of any data being released tomorrow, so what information are you using to be so sure its going to be a big move?

  18. Gut Feelings remind me of a Clintism; "Do you feel lucky today?"
    With reference to tomorrow - Triple Witching Hour- i.e. third Friday of June 3-4pm , as a trader ( not a gambler) I agree Adam and will join those that choose to Step Aside.

    Ron

  19. Almost every analyst says we're in for a big correction but it never happens....Why? Nothing goes up forever or does it?

    1. I'm all for a correction at this point - but, perhaps it is because every analyst is saying we're in for a correction that it doesn't happen. Additionaly, just when you think the bad news will finally start coming out, one positive indicator comes to light and every media network in the world covers it like it is the economy's saving grace.

  20. Hei,
    In case there is a big move on the down side and the 50 Day moving Average does not cross the 200 Day Moving Average on the up side and S&P falls below 899 or 877 odd levels, then can we say that your Final Target of 500 on the S&P can be expected (am not saying in a week or two, or in a month or so) But can we still expect that since the market has not sustained about 950 ...??

    Regards,

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