421 thoughts on “Trader's Blog Contest For August”

  2. At a glance with the S&P and Dow it looks like a typical Elliot wave pattern completing its downtrend 5th wave and starting a new cycle apparently in reverse to the downtrend.

    So recession appears to be over and recovery has commenced, and yes it will take time as you have to allow for the usual cycle of shares recovering thus business recovering then property recovering then we relive the euphoria thinking we're in great times, then when do we start the panic process again?

  3. I think we're in store for another downturn. The Center for Study of Cycles (which I "think" is a favorite of Mr. Hewison) also seems to project another cycle downturn as well.

  4. Since congress is on recess the market will play at will since we don't have some stupid legislation being passed. When they get back the Obama market downturn will continue. This market is indirectionly proportional to what Obama wants.

  5. deflationary spiral and a climax giving way to depression excerbated by weather failure, such as, drought with increased disease due to undernourishment.

  8. I think are seeing positive results from very negative projections thus the dead cat bounce. Once we start to realize that is the case look out below!!!

  9. not easing I think it still has a way to go on the downslide before it grabs its boot straps and pulls its self back up the hill

  12. Not easing - no jobs, consumer tapped out, real estate ATM closed, GDP fall still accellerating (excluding government spending), commercial real estate pending collapse, all problems papered over as much as possible, government statistics a joke, green shoots are all weeds.

    Cheers!

  13. Is the Recession Easing? That depends on what measure you use to make your determination, GDP, Jobs, Stock Market Indices...
    Personally, I feel the overall recession has been easing in many peoples view but another downturn is likely coming before year end. It's hard to take a look at the jobs report each release and feel comfortable saying everything is getting better. I have a feeling many people who have been collecting unemployment have exhausted their benefits and are no longer showing up in the statistics.

  16. Well

    Every body is blind!. USA show more un unployment, increase that thing every month. i think: What about less consumers because an unloyment.

    The banks still without money supply!

    Al fundamentals are down and the market is up, It´s no sense and we have to wair a tremendal reversal.

    Prepare for the worst down turn in the DJ and SP, worst in Nasdaq!!

    Thanks and congratulation for the site.

  18. Yep another downturn looming,gonna get a lot worse but we all need to keep positve and focused

  19. I think that this one is for real. becuase a few weeks ago everybody was talking about that the market is forming a head & shoulders and it looks like it broke that neckline on the daily chart but on the monthly chart it still has to brake one level

  21. I think it will be a double dip ressession, with the final bottom comming in 2012.

  31. Superficially the recession is (for the moment) apparently easing, but I think a) that's likely temporary and b) another downturn is likely in short-medium term. (Too much bad news waiting to get out. Alt-A/Prime mortgage defaults, credit card debt write-downs, etc. etc. etc...)

  32. Recession is not easing. The government's meddling in financial markets is masking the true pain of the American people. This healthcare nonsense will result in a tax hike, and then bears will return.

  33. It would be nice to go with the notion that our economy is on the mend, and to a degree it is. Unfortunately the mending is more a reversion from the overdone affects of the credit crunch of 2008. Meaningful recovery will require employment numbers to significantly improve, and that does not look to be happening. Other items that are/will likely weigh down our economy, with possible further detrimental affects:

    *continuted rising umemployment; some say 11%-15% nationally
    *these above numbers lag the economy,yes, but the affects to the economy of someone loosing their job also lags
    *negative demographic changes that will continue with reduced spending by the consumer-especially the Boomer/78 million segment-which has already begun; this will last for 10+/- years
    *prime mortgage payment problems are just beginning to surface
    *credit and car loan payment problems are just beginning to surface
    *commercial property vacancies and cash-flow problems are just beginning to surface
    *the media reports happy news, but: 10 mil car sales vs. 20 mil normal; 300K+ home sales vs. 500K normal; if not one home is built, apparently there is still 18 years of inventory based on population figures (adjusted for legal immigration)!

    Our government cannot continue to stimulate-and has there really been any of consequence despite the billions being spent-a trillion+ economy year after year, as it is the consumer who is reponsible for some 70% of our economy, and if the consumer is not spending at the levels they used to (demographics) or they cannot (debt, unemployment), then our economy cannot perform or significantly repair.

    Time will tell, and I am certainly not smart enough to know the answer as to how this all turns out, but if the above facts are considered, and we really listen to the woefull stories around us from fellow commuters, friends, and family, caution would be the optimisic word of the day.

    Good health!

  35. The stockmarket and the real economy specially the US are not aligned. There needs to be an alignment either the stockmarket falls to align with the US economy or vice versa, obviously it's going to take some time, but in my opinion it's extremely diverging. Fundamentally, the US economy is really dire. Looking what is coming next such as the commercial real estate and the rising unemployment to name a few the stockmarket is the likely candidate to fall, it's a major head fake. I'm bearish and there is a high probablity for a major downward swing till the next stimulus package is implemented.

  37. Not easing. Too many shoes to drop yet... commercial real estate, US government debt, banks still have not dealt with toxic assets, defaults of prime and option ARM mortgages have hardly begun. Also a general malaise toward the US which is seen internationally as causing the global recession, and a mistrust of US banks. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

  38. Look at the small print in the GDP -backward revisions - again and again - this time from -5.5% to -6.4%. The GDP decline is now the largest since World War II. The IMF expects global GDP to shrink by 1.4% this year, with rich countries’ economies contracting by around 3.8%.

    This market is PUMPED thanks to Goldman and their cronies at the FED!

  39. It's not over yet..when it starts to go down this next time, it will have a hard time finding the bottom. Our money will be worth almost nothing and the Government will recall all the gold.

  40. The recession is easing. The effects of "free money" are finally being reflected in corporate earnings. The housing market is also benefiting as the credit is becoming more available. The wild card that can (an will) upset the applecart will be the inevitable rise in interest rates at some time in the (distant) future.

  41. After the DJI bottomed at around $200 in 1929, the DJI sucker-rallied almost exactly 50% of the total crash. If we are going to rally similarly, then the S&P500 should peak at around $1,121 (50%) or $1,228 (61.8%). However, given the simple fact that everybody is expecting the market to fall again at any moment, we will probably keep going much higher. The market cannot fall until everybody gets sold on the green shoot idea and goes long. Once everyone jumps in they will get slaughtered.

    You might as well go long and enjoy the ride up with a finger on the exit button. The sky is the limit with Mr. Market completely insane.

    1. Not easing
      Unemployment continues to rise, personal income continues to fall.
      Sales continue declining,Production declines.
      We have a negative feedback loop at work.

  42. Simple, We start down in the market Monday Aug 2 2009. Gold may fall with it which will shock alot of people. The economy may get a false bump but it will eat itself unless this administration changes its way and quick. Tax and destroy will force more business over seas. Health care reform as it is called will be the last nail needed. A wet carpet on what embers that are orange now = smoke but no cigar for the economic recovery. Read what a mess the 30's results were. It took a war to rebuild our economy.

  43. This upswing could last until Spring 2010, but a correction will follow...

  44. next down-leg of the market should start by september 1st, and this time we are going to re-test the lows.

  45. I believe that we will be having another downturn beginning in the next month or so. The current market rise has been on low volume and the current rise has been propped up with smoke and mirrors.

  46. I think things are not getting worse. We are just at the begining of getting out of the recession but we are not out yet. Market is showing that we no longer getting any worse we will have another downside correction but it will be a small 5-7 % down swing then we move ahead to a bull mkt.

  48. Have been (or have had the appearance of) easing the last few months, if only perhaps in people's minds. However I also believe another downturn is around the corner, e.g. when credit crunch 2.0 (tm) hits in a month or 2, as a result of Alt-A, Prime et al. mortgages and credit card defaults etc. (ISTM there is a *lot* of undisclosed potential banking woes around the corner, I reckon perhaps Sept/Oct time the next round of banking bad news will start with attendant downturn to follow.)

  51. heh....

    there is going to be another downturn of course. according to some experts, we are already in depression and dow takes out the 6500 low and stops if we are lucky somewhere between 3800-4000.

    housing goes down another 15-20%.

    they are doing everything opposite of what they should be doing, and I think on purpose which is just evil.

    the people who caused the stock market crash of 1929 sold at the top and bought at the bottom ARE the same "blood lines" doing it now.

    every 100 or so years this happens by design.

    very interesting, this engineered "crisis" happened right as the baby boomers are beginning to retire so no wonder they pulled the plug now.

  53. Better GDP numbers not withstanding, we are in trouble for the long haul. The next nail in our coffin will be hyper-inflation. You cannot pump $12 trillion dollars oout of thin air into the economy and not have the result be inflation. The Fed policies might mitigate the effect for a while, but the result is inevitible. The Obama administration is the most Wall Street connected presidency in history. It's primary concern is to furhter stratify the wealth in this country. The banks, people, are not your friends.

  54. Unemployment is not 10% Total unemployment which is true number is 16% thats a fact by June 2010 that total unemployment will be 19%. Real estate in total (Resident and comm) will be dead in the water do not buy realestate untill 2013 we have 25% to go bottom fishing. 2010 wil be reality check for the whole world..Bulls will give up Bears will give up the world markets will be on life support with no pulse and huge WAR will be on. Not too many investors will be concerned abouth the markets most everyone will be busy trying to survive the worst population decline in the history of the planet. Five billion people must be eliminated according to the Master Planners. The truth hurts and thats a fact... OH by the way I have been looking for the decline of the markets since Clinton , Bush kept the lie going for eight years they were not ready to pull the plug untill DEC 13 2008. Sorry we have been left on our own no help will come. Semper fi

  55. Easing. May become a bull market with a bottom in September. Lots of
    problems for the bulls yet though-unemployment,huge deficit,etc. Further bank failures could help the bears get control. Caution is the word now be ready for either scenerio. Consumers have to start spending and banks have to start lending. We aren't out of the woods yet although the yield curve looks pretty good and it was inverted.

  58. Some improvement until next credit crisis, then more recession. Maybe followed by big-time inflation. The government can always start printing up million dollar bills to fit your wallet so you do not need a wheel barrow for money to go grocery shopping.

  59. Easing. I think that the march bottom is THE bottom. Granted there will be a correction of this up trend but it should be contained by Fib 38.2 level.

  61. Another downturn insight!
    People have to be realistic about the recent upswing of the market. The better than expected earning came from the extreme measure of cost cuts, not from the growth of the business. Once the next earning season start, and if companies can not show good better business results because they already running out of cost cut options, the market will turn down and may drop even harder than last October. Don't be fooled by the media!

  62. I think it is still to early to tell.we have been luckey enough to see a relay over the last few weeks to the upside, but the signals are indicting we may not be out of the woods just yet

  64. hello, i'll tell you right now, economy is definitely picking up, for me anyway..(thanks to this website also 🙂 but with the latest news that hackers can possibly be a middle man with websites we trust? wow, are you scared yet?..i see the experts solving that problem leaving the hackers a step behind.. and economy will continue to go up through the obama years.

  65. We are still in a recession - no question.
    1. Record high unemployment
    2. Companies still cutting FTEs and other expenses to beef up earnings
    3. Commercial real estate bomb coming
    4. Record high people on food stamps
    5. Municipal bonds defaulting (eg California)
    6. Debt level (individuals and government) still close to record high
    7. National education level rank low among rest of the world, which will undermine future competitiveness.
    8. Unnecessary bailouts, further increasing govt. debt level -> highly inflationary, with little jog creation.
    9. etc.....

    However INO is about stock trading, and the stock market is separate from the economy. In terms of stock market, we are probably into an intermediate (cyclical) bull market.

    I am using a broad brush here, looking at the DJIA index. Early July was the first time since late December 2007 this index moved above the 200 day MA. The RSI is relatively strong since end of June this year too.

    This lead me to think that we are in a primary bull market trend. Now the real work begins to pick winning sectors, and within these sectors, winning stocks.

  66. With real unemployment (U6) somewhere around 20%, the economy isn't going to recover by saving the anointed few in banking and Wall St. Trying to fix the results of a credit bubble with more credit is the exact wrong solution. You can't have a recovery without an expanding jobs market and we're going the opposite way. You can't spend your way to prosperity; you have to produce first. Devaluation and default is only a matter of time. Prepare yourself for a deflationary depression, the worst kind of depression and it will be the worst depression ever seen in this country.

    Easing? The "green shoots" are imaginary.

  67. Definitely not easing. All the numbers are not showing a recovery, but a temporary easing in the rate of decline. More tough time ahead, and a long long time...

    However, seeing so many people here still pretty bearish, I guess this rally can carry on for a little bit longer. What may happen is a wild range bounding market for the next few years, but eventually will go much lower than March '09. It is at that time, we can say recovery is underway...

  68. I've been saying a "dead cat bounce" for the last 3 months ... consider commercial RE problems, mortgage resets, credit card writedowns and increasing job losses (with no really new job creation) and what do you have ... another leg down a spiral. I don't care what President Obama does or says ... we are in deep trouble and this rally is a "fools" rally ... in my opinion.

  72. The market is at a major cross-road. Fundamentally, the market is not out of the wood but the bullish sentiments are prevailig. Thus, respect Mr Market no matter where the direction goes.

  73. Japanese Government tried to spend its way out of their recession after the Nikkei fell from over 40,000 to under 10,000, and now the Japanese people call it the "Lost Decade". We are in for the same.
    To compound our problem, we are close to falling into what the economists call a " Debt Trap" where the interest due on the accumulated Treasury debt exceeds the current year's Deficit. At that point the Government has no alternative but to either default or hyper-inflate.

  77. There has been a temporary easing, nothing goes straight down or up. The new housing starts is touted as recovery but those first time home buyers who can buy are doing so for the $8,000 credit. They can buy for the same price as rent but the bottom is not in. Foreclosures are backing up from the moritorium by the fed and some states like Calif. People are living there for free, not recovering and paying back. More loss to the banks. Subprime may have mostly passed, but a huge wave of adjustable mtg and interest only are coming up within the next 18 months. The dollar has more in circulation than at any other time in history, current white house admin is more than doubling the national debt in one year, and they have to buy their own debt. Govt is growing so fast and regulations so tough that many companies are relocating (even more than they already have)over seas. So many people are looking for handouts from the govt that the lazy selfishness is keeping this problem alive and well. Are we out of the recession? NO, there's at least a few more years! Nothing - absolutely nothing has changed to stop the derailment of our economy. In fact, the steps taken are only serving to make it worse and prolong any recovery. My take as a realtor watching and evaluating as much as I can.

  78. The current abrupt upward movement of stock market is unprecedented and unjustified for the very reason that people have no jobs, have no money or resources to pay the mortgage for their dwelling units, jobless claims are going up, and government says the recession is over. Who are they befooling? The so called bulls who are creating another uncalled for bullish situation and trapping the public into buying stocks at such high prices will derail their left over resources and throw them into ditch once again for their selfish motives. Only ten months back these very people brought down the stock market from levels of almost 1500 to 663 (S&P500) and then relentlessly hiked it up to 957 level and in no time threw it down to 865 level only four weeks back and now again unscrouplously have taken it up to 994 level with the aim to cause another ruination to the individuals. It is really a sad state of affairs. How could people be so self centered?
    Recession is much deeper than what the picture is being painted for. Only word I can say is BE AWARE OF SELFISH BULLS.

  79. There is definitely a down turn coming around or before 1000. Lots of bad news still out there.

  80. The recession will keep going. There are too many negative factors going on to have any kind of lasting recovery. High and rising unemployment, people losing their homes, Alt-A and Option Arm loans will be resetting for years, and trillions of dollars of debt are some of the problems that will keep us in a long drawn out recession.

  81. It is nice to know many of the corporations are becoming profitable again. So will the unemployed (and there lots of them) become entrepreneurial and create new employment?

    The next excuse, after the economy doesn't rebound, and in all probability tanks, will be a recognition of a structural problem. Does China have all the jobs? Pour more green on those flames!

  82. This recession is ending. However there will be another one, as recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle, the problem is not the recessions but that the government and Fed intervene in them. This creates bigger and bigger boom to bust cycles, with each cycle getting worse than the last.

    Think of a rubber band. You can stretch it out and it will snap back. Stretch the rubber band a little farther out each time and each time it will snap back faster, until it breaks.

    Also, the end of a recession does not mean the markets will go up. If the recession is ending then interest rates will have to rise and that may not be favorable for stocks.

  84. Yes

    Meager corporate earnings and government support of banks cannot overcome record unemployment. Without jobs isn't spending headed downward? What are states and cities supposed to do that can't balance their budgets?

  85. green shoots does not make a recovery - like trading- patience is required but I am guessing another downturn

  90. not easing

    Well here it goes:
    - there are trillions of dollars put in to the economy (a lot of debt,..)
    - Bric countries are talking about a new world currency because they do not believe anymore in the dollar
    - the dollar is around 78, next stop 76, so this will decline further
    - unemployment is for some states 10 to 15% and will go to 20% if it goes on like this
    - the uptrend is because companies kicked a part of there workforce out, a bit more efficiency, selling of buildings and so on. And did a lot of accounting tricks just to make everything look good. So quarter 2 looks good, but this can not be repeated in quarter 3.
    - the uptrend is only there because the crooks make the prices go up by there stories they tell so they can sell there worthless stocks for high prices to people who still believe in all the lies about the economy.

  91. As long as the unemployment rate continues to rise,the economy is not getting better.The only ones doing good are the "fat cats" in Washington that are putting money in their pockets from all the lobbyists.

    Just a comment on the proposed health care plan working its way thru congress.....if the plan is so good,let the congress adopt the plan for themselves and their families.

  92. No I do not believe the recession is easing.
    I believe it will get alot worse, before it will get better.

  95. No way, we are in the beginning of recession and we havent seen yet real problems. FED will not win this crisis by printing money. I think we could even see a shift in political power in US somewhere around 2012.

  96. It's a bear market temporary rally based on cost cutting earnings, $4trillion of nervous cash and panic fund manager buying.

  97. easing for now, later not easing.....stocks will keep going up longer than we think, because there are too many thinking that it is coming back down this year.....it will come back down to retest the lows of March, but that may not happen until next year or even the year after that!

  98. More inane projects like Cash for Clunkers will create small bubbles which will delay our real exit from the recession. I think we will enter a long period of stagflation next year.

  100. Recession is easing before it barley got going. If I was an American, I would be a lot more concerned about "Medical Reform" otherwise known around the world as Central Planning or Socialism.

  101. Passage of strong health care bill and more results from the stimulus the will spur optimism in the economy in 2010. Failure, or a weak bill will hurt the administration and give the right wingers licence to spread more gloom and doom.

    1. Sir,

      I can assure you that based on 40 years experience with Obama type medical reform , you will find right and left joining hands as you wait months or never get your state run medical services. And buy the way, if you happen to be a taxpayer, you can look forward to all your favourite programs being brutally slashed in a futile attempt to pay for those services you aren't getting.

      And what evolves after 40 years of this rot? You get to pay sky high taxes for medicare, pay again for many of the "available" services directly out of your pocket and then you gat to wait and wait and wait and die waiting.

      With respect, you really want to look into the subject further.

      Neither Right or Left. Just would prefer that all able- bodied persons pay their way.

      Ron.

  102. Recession is easing no doubt; we are on process of recovery slowly and steadily, it is hard to believe after a long haul.

  103. Not easing. It just seems so because the government, wall street and the media are doing everything possible to change social psychology including lying, falsifying data and removing from the media spot light
    anyone who is vehemently critical of the adminsitration or Congress and questions the BS we are all being feed about economy.

    The only place where you can get a contray point of view is on Fox.

    CNBC is the worst. For example, where is Dylan Ratigan and Jeff Macke?

  104. The market going up, is just a psychological stunt engineered by the big boys to encourage and entice the masses to spend and consume (buying cars, houses,...). The masses don't spend and consume if market psychology is negative.
    The housing residential/commercial sectors will probably fall further and unemployment will increase much more. We are in heavy deflationary environment and we will remain there, probably till mid/end 2010.
    We shall see, if and how bad it's going to be....

  106. Not easing.
    Looks Temporary correction May last till end of August or first week of September.
    This bear market rally is fueled by tarp or govt money coming to the market.
    S&P 's estimate that S & P earnings for the 3rd qtr will be negative it self says that this rally is fake.
    When this GOVT fuel is burned off (which can not last forever)
    and when companies own balance sheets will not support the growth prospects this market will come down sharply beyond imagenation.
    Commercial real estate for banks will be the main culprit for next down leg

  110. Not easing. The plunge Protection Team, george Soros, and the media are keeping things afloat. When we run out of other people's money it will crash.

  111. If a health care initiative which, effectively forces everyone onto a politically controlled plan is enacted, any chance of continued recovery will be gone. Even if the health care initiative were to be soundly defeated, cap and trade tax increases downroad will likely turn things south again. Bah - Humbug!

  112. The losses in the economy have slowed down but we are not getting better. Unemployment is 9.5% and in 15 states it is at 10% or more and they are saying buy the end of the year the national average will be 10% or more. Companies that reported earnings that were up most of them not all but a lot made money buy cuting expencives and stream lining their business, the sales were down. I think the markets will go up slowley just like this pasted week which will give everyone hope but we are still in a bear market. Until employment comes down, companies start increasing sales and making profits the US in for a long hard fight so, at this time we are in a temporary upswing.

  113. I expect a decline from mid-August through September. With thousands facing expiring unemployment benefits, there will be further declines in consumer spending.

  114. Unfortunately the recession is not over. Wish it were though!

    Unemployment is still an issue and at some point we will need to address that as well as our federal deficit. These problems will not go away on their own. Higher taxes and exorbitant spending will NOT solve the problem.... Washington will only spend more.

  115. I believe that this is just a wall street bear market sucker rally which ia drawing in as many people as possible. The recession is not over and we will see a reversal in the stock market back to 6500 in early 2010.

  116. First, recession describes the economy, not the markets. I predict that the markets will suffer another decline into this fall before they experience any sustained strength, the only question is will the March lows be breached or respected.

    As for the economies of the world, the artificial stimulants will soon be exhausted & consumer appetite has been permanently revised to a sustainable level which should ensure that we reach a new equilibrium by next spring. I suppose one could characterise the interim as a period of easing, yet employment will still decline into this fall & thus consumer confidence may have a litle further to fall before reaching stasis, so this period might still feel dangerous even though the pace is slowing.

    China is nearing completion of its current effort to accumulate materials while prices are low (very shrewd, yet only possible in a centrally controlled economy!), which has propped up oil, for instance. Now there must be a period of decline while China completes its known programme of building extra storage facilities. Materials will rally again once China begins to fill the new facilities. Time will tell whether China is able to consume all of these materials or whether it is amassing a white elephant.

  117. Markets are moving up (down or sideways) based on sentiment, which is nothing more than crowd perception (be it rational or not), including institutional crowd.
    Economic fundamentals are still bad and actually getting worse, but unfortunately wearing a lot of coverage "make up".
    The Recession is worsening, I'd dare say we are headed for a Depression style scenario...

  118. This is most likely a bear market rally approximately equal to a 50% retracement at about S&P=1050. Then, expect to re-test the lows.
    Why??? The fundamental problems have not been allowed to fully correct, due to enormous amouts of dollars being thrown at it as well as simply not enough time----depressions like this require much more time to wash out required changes.

  119. Easing temporarily. Massive numbers of foreclosures still coming, unemployment to get worse, consumer debt to deal with, massive amount of bad debts at banks not marked to market, etc. But euphoria will reign for 6 months at least.

  122. Temporary upswing due the better than expected earnings results. Guidance from previous quarters EA were very low so that companies will look a lot better in future quarters. Still there are foreclosures, layoffs, and a glutt of empty homes for sale. Even though weekly claims are decreasing, 10% unemployment is very high. No one is spending money because they are either unemployed and have no discretionary spending money or worried that they will lose their job and thus saving their income for that rainy day. The next shoe to drop will probably be the commercial real estate market. Commercial loans are 7 years with a balloon at the end. It will be a lot harder to refinance since their rent rolls will not support the loan requirements due to a lot of retailers going out of business causing the vacancies. The CARS thing is a sham. Once all the people buy their cars with this program, there will be no one left to buy. It is the same thing with housing. Once the federal $8,000 tax credit for home purchase ends, there will be no one left to buy. All that wanted to buy have bought. The new Obama taxes will hurt even more since most small business have income over the $250,000 rich threshold. They will re-think about hiring more people in light of higher taxes. Also Obama is letting the Bush tax reductions expire. Does this mean higher LT term capital gains and higher dividend taxes??? If so, investors no longer have a reason to buy and hold dividend paying stock and thus the selling of these stocks may drive the market lower and hurt people's financial portfolio. This would result in lower asset value and less future money to be spent. The stimulus package is a big joke. Once all these infrastructure jobs are completed, then what will all these infrastructure professionals being doing besides collecting unemployment along with the high tech, retail, finance unemployed.

  124. Temporary upswing. Earnings and profits are beating expectations due to cost cutting, not increased revenues. New car sales are up because the automobile manufacturers matched the Government incentives. People bought cars this quarter that they were going to buy anyway next quarter. Next quarter sales will be down again. Another large down swing will happen in the Fall.

  125. There is lot of uncertainty in the market, but I think the market has come to its bottom. May be it was not be a bull market yet since people do not have confidence in the market but this might be the end of recession and a new beginning. Though market may not swing up, but now we will see market bottoming and once companies and economic data starts giving positive data then that would be the time for bull market. But in my opinion market is easing and hope this is the bottom.

  127. The GNP figures will be adjusted later, and should indicate a worse number. Combine that with continued unemployment, nothing being done to give an incentive to business to hire, consumers not spending, all because of this administration and it's socialized actions. Too many Americans remain silent, some not knowing what to do or to say, or who to say it to. We as a country must become outraged and demand that Congress and the President do what we want, not what they want. Until then, we can expect more of the same. So start educating your family, friends, neighbors, associates etc. and ask them to contact their congressmen and senators to express strong displeasure.

  128. The slipage in the housing economy will last for at least two-three years

  129. NOT easing!!!!! Many years left of going sideways to continued weakness. Similar to Japan. Started in 1989-stock market than at 40,000, now around 10,000. D0WN 75%!!!! in 20 years. As the person that won the Nobel Prize for his comments on the economy stated a few weeks ago--should last for 15 years, but the pain should ease in 8 years for by than most of the butchering people will have felt should have begun to subside. In the interm, we will continue with the ups and downs but with limited strenght and more weakness. As one football player stated--now involved owning an investment firm {Joe Tiesman} "IT'S THE BIGGEST CRAP GAME IN TOWN>". Hope all have great investment days ahead. The SUN will continue to rise every morning.

  130. Easing a little, but there will be a slight turn down. The economy will get solid foundation in 2010 and start to grow again in 2011.

  131. I think the recession is easing. The stimulus is kicking in and will slowly create jobs. Housing has turned around in some places, while other places will take much longer. The federal government is finally tackling some of the tough problems that have been ignored for decades. The results may not be easy or perfect, but it's a big step in the right direction.

    1. Not easing
      2009-08-01 19:54
      You talk about things getting better, you wait till Obama gets his health care bill passed and you`ll see which way the market goes. And jobs, where do you see any progress or jobs created under this stimulus package that was forced down our throats under fault pretense that the economy would collapse if not passed right now. Very little of the money has been spent on anything that has created and amount of jobs. And the federal government is h*ll bent on bankrupting this country in a time when we have the highest unemployment since the great depression.

  134. Hi ,I love this economy the dollar is buying more the interest is very low,Im making alot of money. What scares me is when the banks and large corporation start to make a profit,the stock market starts to go up,so will the interest rates and efflation will take hold .the dollar will be worthless .Thats not a recovery that will be death to the middle class.The government will take care off the wellfare people and the supper rich will become richer.Pray that this state of the ecconomy stays as longe as possible.The so call recovery will be the end.God bless Mike Kozak 8-1-2009

  135. I think that the economy is showing signs of improving, but there is a significant risk of a turn back down if the US consumer does not step back up to his/her profligate spending ways.

  137. The upswing leg in the market is definitely temporary.
    The GDP numbers released on Friday do not make sense whatsoever. How can companies declare better earnings and consumption is declining?!
    Or how can consumption increase while unemployment is increasing?!
    GDP is phony and the green shoots are a mere mirage.

  139. with such an unprecedented crisis, requires unprecedented measures to counter, and with such limited information on hand to make such conclusive forecast is just being ignorant.

    There is a reason for economist to be slow in changing their views, as enough information is gathered and tested before judged.

    Better to play along trading plans that limit losses while delivering gains, stick to the trade triangles mate!!!!

  140. Yes, The recession is easing,as of another downturn,not as much as we had already.This is not the end of the world folks,just another challenge,so hang in there,"we will come out of it".

  142. Downturn, mid-August to October. Hundreds of thousands begin to exhaust extended unemployment benefits will further limit consumer spending!

  143. We are still in a long protracted depression.
    Unemployment will be over 10%+ for 5 or more years.
    Look for a new NORMAL.
    We will never go back to what we did or had.
    Going back would be like having a normal root canal without novccaine.

  144. Yes i think the economy is getting better and i am suprised ,
    i'm canadian , and what i see the people don't suffer from much the recession here around myself

    I believe that we are in front of a monetary challenge with the different currency(change) because of the déficite of various country

  145. you can't keep borrowing to get out of debt,the crunch will come for the pay back.

  146. I think that things will get a lot worse. We are at the beginning of a depression and the markets will get a lot worse. More people will lose their homes and more and more people will lose their jobs.

  148. Yes, recession is easing.
    For economy to get better it take time.
    The goverment put so much effort to stimulate the economy.

  150. I believe the upswing will last throughout August and part September and then we drop hard for a month before the xmas rally.
    I think 2010 will be the start of the worst drop in History

    Ang

  151. Most indicators are signaling that we have reached the worst of the recession. We will have a slow recovery.

  152. Minus unprecedented global stimulus, we are heading deeper. Unprecedented debt to GDP ratios worldwide doom this strategy. Consider the 3 percent conundrum. Three percent of world population resides in the U.S., using one quarter of global energy resources; three percent of Chinese have cars, growing rapidly. The momentary glut of oil will disappear in a flash if there is any upturn in global consumption, leading to a deeper downturn. Repeat till spin-down is complete.

  153. Given the amount of quanitative easing of the money supply by the Government and the Federal Reserve, a short term positive effect on the economy and the stock market can be observed. But, ultimately, the misguided efforts towards proping up zombie banks at the expense of middle class mortgage holders and consumers can only-in the mid to long term--cause hyper inflation and increased unemployment and a serious depression.

  154. I beleive we've bottomed out and we are now slowly and (I mean very slowly) beginning our ascent from this (thanks to wall street) recession that were current in.

  155. The economy is only recovering if you believe the fuzzy stats that are biased (like home sales data from the National Association of Realtors) or messaged (like GDP and unemployment figures) or any of the stats based on surveys. If you look at hard data, like sales and income tax data, y-o-y corporate revenues, and shippers volume, it becomes obvious that the “seasonally adjusted, imputed, and self-serving” stats are not lining up with reality. Moreover, any one of the following shoes could drop between now and the end of the year and crush the green shoots:
    1) if Congress passes the Cap & Trade legislation (i.e. a huge tax on energy)
    2) if Congress passes the $trillion+ health-care legislation
    3) another banking crisis will be brought on by Alt-A and Option ARM mortgage resets that ramp up between now and 2012
    4) As Ben Bernanke testified to Congress 2 weeks ago, the default rate on commercial loans is climbing and will soon put a whole new class of banks in deep trouble as evidenced by CIT nearly going under.
    5) if Congress allows the Bush tax cuts to expire at the end of this year, it creates a huge tax increase.
    6) if China and the rest of the world decide to stop buying U.S. Treasury notes and cancels the government’s credit card.
    No, we’re not out of the woods yet… you can’t even see a clearing in any direction!

  156. I think we are not there yet.
    The USA is in fact bankrupt.The people donot spent anymore so the government has to come up with all the money to have the GDP growing.
    The next thing is, they will be forced by the Chinese to offer Treasury bills or bonds in YUAN.The dollar will collapse.
    How is it possible that the USA is put out of bizz by the banks like Goldman and J.P Morgan they run the money press and with their markets manipulation they have ruined the free trade and so the free USA.

    It happened with the UK and EUROPE in the past(Golden Age Holland) and now it is happening to the USA.

    The winner will be CHINA so there is a rising wealth and GDP but not in the West but in the East.

  157. Dream on...

    as long as the monetary system is controlled by the Fed nothin will ease in the long run. The value of the dollar will decline and subsequently the economic of the USA.

    Other industries & nations such as the Oil Industry and China will switch to the Euro which will be the final blow to the dollar.

    So, you may see the odd one uptrend of the dollar but the unresponsible, uncontrolled and unaudited Federal Reserve has already initiated the downfall of the us economy since Woodrow Wilson.

    All I can say is "Hope for the best, cause I believe the worst is still to come"

  158. Appears to be easing, between bear market rally and selective upswing in earnings based on expense cutting(job losses) as opposed to growing revenue generation. On a deeper level, while the rate of job losses may diminish, the rehiring (into inflation adjusted lower paying jobs) will be longer and slower than in almost any past downturn. This will inhibit economic growth for years to come.
    Conclusion: I'm skeptical of claims of economic recovery, and expect reality will begin to sink in this coming september-october-november timeframe.

  161. Recession? It is primarily a media event that affects many more than it should. It will be over when key opinion leaders and mass media programming managers and editors find it more appealing to promote the alternative and use their significant influence to build public opinion and momentum to that effect. It may never have occurred without them, but our world would be an entirely different place ...perhaps more like a third world place!

  164. Not easing - it is what is called a "dead cat bounce".
    Housing still has a way to go. As the unemployment gets worse later in the year everything will start going down again.

  165. I think we are in for a very bumpy ride. Too many people are discounting all the debt that this country is stacking up like so much cordwood. I think that there is a very good chance that this downturn could last another 10-15 years.It really depends on whether we can get rid of this corrupt power grabbing congress and undo some of the damage that has been done over the last couple of years.

  166. I think the market will be choppy the rest of 2009 and into 1st half of 2010. Present write-off practices of the financial will then come into play and from there on out the market will fall deeply.

  168. If this bloated, arrogant, and inept government would get out of the way, we would be out of recession by the first of the year. Unfortunately, they're trying to reach their tentacles into every crevice(both public and private) we have. I'm bullish on Americans, but Bearish on the idiots in Washington!

  169. The recession is easing and there will be a short time in which some will feel pretty good, unfortunately with the way the government is spending and borrowing it will inevitably lead us into a DEPRESSION far worse than the 30's. The government has not learned that one can't borrow their way out of debt, and that this is our problem from the start. It appears that the power that be want no more than to remove our republic and bring us into socialism if we don’t do something about it.

  171. I believe we are floating along the bottom and will remain here for a couple of years. A couple pops up and down but no defined direction until we head towards 2020.

  172. I think the markets will correct again. Too many rose coloured glasses out there!!! The US economy is NOT in good shape. I think that the US gov't and Wall Street are doing their best to get investment money to buy into the thinking that the economy is improving. Personally, I'm long, but looking for any signs of weakness to exit.

  173. recession easing but still here. Diminished consumer spending will drag on economy. Real sustained economic growth will not come from government stimulus whether here or china.
    Market in bear rally, will correct to downside.
    Long term concern is whether there will be enough economic growth or will government spending/debt bubble implode?

  175. During the great depression there was a major up turn that did not last. The worse was yet to come. The worse is yet to come this time.

  176. I think that the recession is temporarily easing,while the economy appears to be bottoming I still think that not all shoes have dropped and what the catalysts will be to push everythng down again.

    The crisis in confidence is almost over and the worst seems behind us but it will
    take ys years to dig out of this.

    There was no raniny day fund to solve any of these problmes during the good years
    and now that the bad years are here there is nothing leftover but to print money
    increasew the money supply and cause inflation although now it seems tamed but
    will continue to raise i6ts ugly head in the form of a rise in oil prices,commodites,metals and gold

    Only companies with little or no debt will be able to increase their market share

    The decline in GDP and the increase in the money supply of 16-18%
    per year cannot continue in which something will have to give or be crushed
    whether it be small business owners,manufacutruers,or any one that uses credit to money off their goods and even retailers and banks.

    Market can do a head fake at any time with the right catalyts as it has risen
    since March with little or no participation by the general public becxuase they have become shell shocked by the actions of the stock markets.

    g,h.

  177. We are in a depression! This is nothing more than a bear market rally. Even the CNBC newscasters are beginning to think that the Government is fudging the numbers such as: housing sales, GDP, CPI, Unemployment, etc.. We are in the worst BUBBLE of all... a credit bubble. Remember what Ludwig Von Mises said in 1949 "There is no avoiding the crises that is the result of a boom caused by credit expansion. It is only whether we choose to suffer the crises sooner by avoiding further credit expansion, or we suffer the final catastrophe that usually destroys the currency system involved." By the way, L. W. Mises is an economist who became famous because he predicted the 1929 depression.

    1. Hi Mark:

      I agree with your comments completely.

      I am working on a book for the general public about the lessons NOT learned from the 1929 Crash and other financial crises.

      Government Deficits result in inflation...Increasing Deficits will result in increasing inflation, in the coming years. The Fed is building another credit bubble.

      Would you have any interest in talking with me about becoming a co-author?

      Thanks.

      Steve Schoen
      ***Please contact Lindsay at

      li*****@in*.com











       to obtain my contact information***

  178. I believe we are in a big rally now just as we were before the Great Depression. Now is the time to save and prepare for the times ahead.

  179. The recession is over, but the recovery will be slow and painful. It will take ten years to reverse decades of over-leveraging and that plus demographics will lead to a miserable decade.

  180. The recession has already turned into a sharp recovery based on 1) inventory rebuilds from the credit crisis 2) incredible fiscal policy and 3) astonishing monetary policy including a) zero rates and b)quantitative easy. Unfortunately three decades of debt build up has not been rectified and the recovery is unsustainable with an inflationary-currency crisis double dip recession coming. Timing the crack up boom well will be important for investment success.

  182. waiting to see a "double dip" in the stock market...will need to see credit given to consumers before we get a good recovery imo...

  184. Everybody is right and Nobody is wrong. The cycle of life may be both up and down at the same time... It all depends on your specific situation... Are you buying or selling... Are you working or unemployed...Do you have a new 5% fixed rate mortgage or is the bank foreclosing on you... I wish you happiness and prosperity in the future.

  187. I believe this is a temporary upswing. Most companies are reporting earnings as better than lower expectations based on cost cutting and layoffs. Having one of the largest unemployment rate in history, consumers are adjusting to this economy in the same way - cutting back and saving.

    Unless the job market changes putting alot of Americans back to work, I think subsequent quarters will paint very ugly pictures resulting in a downward side of the market again.

    Regards,
    John

  188. Take a look at The Velocity of money; Its taking a dive.
    Take a look at unemployment: It's on the rise
    Whilst employment is falling and money isn't really moving the rally is a temporary swing/correction, call it what you will but tread carefully as a sudden fall can occur at any time and probably will in the next 2-3 months. IMHO

  190. We have been in a permanent recession ever since the dollar debasement began with the severing of the link to Gold! All the talk of recession is really not very helpful. With a fascist type government in place in the USA (private "ownership" with government regulation) it will only make things worse. There will be ups and downs in the business cycle as always and those who will do best are those who invest in their own businesses and jobs, pay down debt, save and invest spare funds wisely and who maintain their health. Unfortunately, with the large amount of people on "entitlement" programs (welfare of all kinds) the risk is in the direction of more problems down the road. Plan on it and plan FOR it!

  191. The bull was beaten up pretty bad. It is the third round and he has now risen to his knees. The future holds for a dazed and uncertain bull for a couple of rounds. And then he will finally arise with strength and endurance.

  192. Dream on...

    as long as the monetary system is controlled by the fed nothing will ease in the long run.
    The value of the dollar will decline und subsequently the economic power of the usa.

    Other nations will switch to the euro which will be the final blow to the us dollar.

    So, you may see the odd one uptrend of the dollar but the unresponsible, uncontrolled and
    unaudited printing of us dollars by the fed reserve has already initiated the downfall of the us economy.

    All I can say is "Hope for the best"

  193. alt+a,resets,and commercial property loans unable to get refinancing,credit card delinquencies increasing,consumer drowning in debt and the Mayan calandar ending in 2012.so what is that you were saying about green shoots? Next leg down comming soon.

  194. yes I think the economy is getting better,but we are a long way from being over and for some folks it will be even longer,the economy affects different people in some many different ways.

  195. Easing as housing starts are getting better, latest GDP not as bad as expected. Still a long road to prosperity but getting in the right direction.

  196. 140 million Americans are working, saving more, paying higher taxes and consuming less. The standard of living for many has fallen significantly. The GDP has likely posted the worst quarters for this cycle. By official measures, the recession is still here but is easing. It remains to be seen if the treasury can continue to borrow 150-200 billion dollars every two weeks ad infinitum.

    We've worked our way out of every other recession. This one is going to be especially tough, carrying the largest most inept government in history.

    1. Listen up all of you! A nation that produces more than it consumes will enjoy an ever increasing standard of living,but a country that consumes more than it produces is doomed to an ever decreasing standard of living. Our inept government has let most of this countrys manufacturing jobs slip away. Without a strong manu- facturing capability we as a world power are HISTORY! Just watch China and India over the next 20 years. Now, as a start in rectifying this problem, we as voters have the strongest tool in our
      possesion,and that is we must demand TERM LIMITS for all of congress.
      Why not? We have it for the president. With the internet and todays technology it must be possible to get the ball rolling to accomplish
      this.I don't know how,maybe someone out there does.

      2. I totally agree with Ken. I love America. Our greatest renewable commodity is opportunity. But we as a nation need to make some major changes in our life styles by consuming less, recycling, producing less trash and wasting less. Because Nothing Lasts Forever. We need to respect mother nature as native Americans did. I have seen that some people have realized this fact but for the rest who have not, perhaps we need to hit bottom in order to get them come along. Everything happens for a reason. So it is not over till the FAT Lady sings. I don't know which one since there are a lot of FAT Ladies in America...

  198. The Federal Reserve has won the battle between recession and growth in the economy

    Bill

  199. Temporary upswing. We have seen larger rallies in previous bear markets throughout history. Time will tell, right !!

    Regards,

    Loic

    1. Recession is being masked by huge govt. spending and removal of mark to market rules for financial institutions. Govt. can not politically get out of this mode because unemployment will continue at very high rate for another year to 2 years. (otherwise, remember what happened to carter). During that period, the toxic assets will remain as toxic - no one took a hit for that lost value. We will muddle along like we are now in a recession/depression mode. If another shock were to hit the system in the mean time, like pull back in demand from india, china and brazil, we will have depression. American consumer will not be back - he has too big a hole to backfill prior to spending can begin. Life will revert to life in the early 1900s - work hard and less pay while few people will still be stinking rich.

    5. easing- but i don't think it will last; this does not mean the stock market won't go up

    6. The recession is not easing and cannot end until the consumer consumes. There is insufficient pent up demand to entice the consumer into spending and insufficient excess earnings to support spending. This is due to a continued credit squeeze on the consumer and the perception of a contracting economy due to unemployment. Government meddling in the economy via enlarging deficits and new entitlements like healthcare are not perceived favorably by the top ten percent of earners/spenders either. With state and local governments joining the federal government in declining tax revenues a classic bear market trap is developing which could easily lead to a sharp reversal in September/October.

    7. The recession is OVER. Clean house at the SEC! Stop Shadow banks and all regulations should be enforced. No new regulations. NO more bailouts. No more debt. All new programs must be revenue neutral. Make all health insurance premiums tax deductible and give each person 100000.00 dollars as a life-time health insurance credit. Let them use that money to buy health care and when it is out... they have to get their own money to buy health care either out of pocket or by insurance. This allows all US citizens to have 100K coverage plus what ever they get on their own. This actually solves the health care problem of giving coverage to all without breaking the bank. It would insure all children until they are 18 years of age then 100K till death and most people would not spend it until they had to.

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