421 thoughts on “Trader's Blog Contest For August”

  1. To quote James Garner's standard answer to questions, "Does a pig waller (wallow) in mud?" The answer is, 'of course.' Putting 50% down on my house doesn't seem like such a stupid idea now.
    For five months, investors ignored bad news generally. Now the market is ignoring good news, and that's a sign it is about to make a 'correction.' The foreclosures problem is finally getting the attention it deserves, and the financial sector is about to lead the market down.
    The good news is that in FX we can go short as easily as going long. Until some government Czar proposes foreign exchange controls to roll us back to the 60's, we can cope. I guess I shouldn't have said that, it will only give someone an idea we don't want to think about.
    Consumers are essential to a recovery and they won't start spending like they want to until taxes are reduced. Hold your breath.

  2. I don't see any real improvement economy wise on the horizon. Better than expected earnings are mostly result of cost cutting and the consumer is not spending, more and more people are losing their jobs and foreclosures are still soaring so the larger picture in my opinion is still down. In Europe the picture is even uglier because our economy is mostly export driven and exports are falling constantly and the same goes for China. Who will buy the stuff if consumer is not spending ?

  8. We have seen a parade of false rallies over the past many months. The markets have been artificially stabilized with mostly tax dollars. We print money to reduce debt?! What, are we nuts?! Bullishness has not been supported by earnings, and until it is, and employment numbers rise, it is only a matter of time until a correction occurs. It is inevitable. We should welcome it. The markets need periodic cleansing, our bodies need it, rivers need it. It is natural, and we needn't be fearful of it. The evolution of consciousness is pointing us toward a new era of wholistic thinking and behavior. We must learn to take into account the well-being of the larger whole, lest our individual and collective self-centeredness lead us over the brink. Crisis (from the Greek: "krisis") means "opportunity" not disaster. This is a great time to be alive, and to contribute to the creation of a beautiful world.

  10. The recession is easing if we compare the current world economic outlook and the world economic outlook at the end of the previous administration. It looks like the current economic environment indicates that we are on the right track. However, employment will get much worse before it gets better. Employment numbers only state how many people have lost their jobs recently without considering how many people lost their jobs since the beginning of the year and most of them still unemployed. People will start spending again when they fell comfortable with their employment situation. The current administration has to show the American people that they are public servants and not career politicians.

  11. Not easing. The recession will become a depression

    Markets will go down and break the march lows. Next 5 years will feature high volatility, and several bear rallies each of which will be heralded as the start of a new bull market, but all of which shall fail.

    Deflation for the next couple of years, likely followed by a period of high inflation.

  14. I think it may be easing.The bond yields are rising faster than anybody thought which may be signalling the end of Low interest rates.We may have temporary dip but it will be more of a correction of the upside move rather than the second V of the W shaped recovery

  15. There are many reasons of why the recession is NOT over with the major contributing factor being the rising unemployment because the economy is based on the consumers' spending who supports the entire financial pyramid. The socialistic agenda of wealth redistribution aggressively pushed by the current US government, which absolutely mirrors my former motherland - the USSR, only worsens the situation and prolongs the current recession.

  16. The recession is easing a little but I anticipate a small and short time market correction around the end of September beginning of October. DK

  17. I believe there are several more shoes to drop. This is a temporary up swing. Banks are still holding trillions of dollars of bad debt on their books (Alt-A's, CDO's, Prime and Jumbo mortgages, credit cards, auto loans,student loans etc).Bank failures so large in number that the FDIC will run out funds and will have to borrow billions of dollars so they can continue to function and take over failing banks. Double digit unemployment. The market continuing to head north without fundamental support. Low consumer spending. Rising budget deficits in the trillions of dollars, higher bond interest rates so foreign countries will buy our debt and economic deflation. Political representatives and Market News media talking heads use partisanship[left,right and center] and lies that misrepresent facts. They don't ask or answer the hard questions so the public can understand what are the problems. Instead you have no solutions, no confidence, no trust, a lot of finger pointing, confusion and a stock market that will head south.

  20. RECESSION is not easing and is unlikely to ease until such time the powers be stops funding the non-performers and stops living on borrowed funds. U.S is presently living on 'borrowed time' and would fall like the Romans in the next 5 years.

  21. A rough analysis of the comments thus far shows the vast majority believe in worse days to come...I can't argue that...the US is entering the same state as Japan did in the 80s and into the 90s...as for the market; time for a reversal soon and in a few years we will start down that long lonesome highway of stagflation we experienced in the 70s, only this time the expressway will be 4 lanes instead of 2, the offramps will be much farther apart and there will be bigger potholes to break your axle.

  24. The recesseion / depression is not over.
    Fundamental problems still exists. House prices continue to fall.
    Foreclosures to rise and household deleveraging to continue. Credit conditions are still tightening for consumers. Drivers are missing for
    growth,housing, commercial real estate,loose bank credit,capital
    investment and consumer spending. At the Federal level we have a
    unsustainable fiscal and monetary policy, it will be a long slow
    recovery as we repeat the same programs that failed in Japan.

  25. It is hard to believe in any kind of a longer term recovery as long as there are so many people out of work and unemployment continues to rise?

    What do the millions out of work do when their unemployment runs out? Life support will keep you feed and possibly keep the collection people pasified for a while, but when the crutch is removed, most will have no choice but to fall.

  27. I think the inflation will eventually catch up and send the markets into a nother downturn but I still think it can go either way for the immediate short term. THis week would be a good gauge as to weather to stay the course or start going short

  30. I think a sharp decline when we least expect it!.....so probably won't happen this year or even next year.

  33. Depends on your perspective. If your neighbor is unemployed, it's a ressesion. If you're among the unemployed, it's a depression. We need more time to unwind the past excesses. The market is another story.
    I've been net short this market for a while and taking a beating. Wishing you all success!

  36. With over a 1,000 banks to go bankrupt on the FDIC and the commercial ARMs going bad alongside the housing ARMs quantative easing can only increase. To offset the collapse of the USD which is finally after three months on life support going to break 78 on the basket of currencies the stock market will continue rally as an inflation response. To protect the USD the Fed will get the plunge protection team at 71.5 to short all the markets and drive money back into the "safe haven" of the USD otherwise known as "pump and dump". The IMF has been given the ability to print money aka "Special Drawing Rights" this will phase out or reduce the Fed's ability to continue with undisclosed unregulated massive global currency swap facilities putting quantative easing onto a truely planetary basis. The budgetary over runs are mind boggling with the midyear budget corrections from the White House and the CBO increasing its deficit estimates $2 trillion from the $7 trillion that had been the centerpiece of their economic policy back in January to approximately $9 trillion or 50% of the US economy. All of these items are going to put stress on the USD and to keep interest from smashing the city banks through the carry trade on the interest rate swaps the Fed is going to have to pump up it's own long date debt.

    In short it's going to be a boom for a few weeks followed by the USDX at 71.5 triggering a massive crash to pump up the dollar. Foreign creditors are going to sell into this rally and dollar flight will cause the currency recovery to be short and feeble to be followed by a massive stagflation. To protect there own failling economies creditors will accelerate dollar flight. The IMF will exacerbate this by replacing international dollar debts under the threat of a dollar dumping action with special drawing rights into 65% of the world central bank reserves. The IMF will be instruemental in exporting stagflation to the global monetary system.

    Have a lovely day.

  38. I believe that although the sharpest drop in the recession has past, we will continue to hold in this pattern for a while and most likely double dip (U.S). The real numbers on unemployment, bank assets, and more housing and commercial real estate woes will reflect in the economy for another 1-2 years. The pattern of spending by the U.S. consumer has taken a tether and will probably (and long term hopefully)continue in a more realistic pattern.

    Banks have only been able to re-capitalize through a very well orchestrated accounting game of musical chairs. The government wanted this to help them fund themselves in the hopes that more of them will survive the next series of issues (got to respect the success of the tactics).

    I continue to believe that we will see a double dip recession and hopefully the second dip of the 'W' will be shallower and drawn out. I then hope that we can build a solid and sustainable growth mechanism rather than the bubble and burst capitalistic roller coaster ride that we have had for the last 30 years.

  39. There is still too much toxicity in the system to allow a quick recovery. The economic downturn is unquestionably ending. I believe we are either out of the recession or we will be within the next month. However, the recovery will be slow. I see things turning around for good around mid August, 2010.

  41. The recession is just taking a break. There will be another downturn. The markets are currently being propped up. I'm looking for a downturn short-term, then another rally, then a crash next year, possibly matching or breaking the 666 lows on the s&p.

  42. I think everyone is way too bullish, we're not out of the clear yet but everyone is soooo pollyanish that it only matters what the majority believes, therefore all bad news will only pull down the market a little as it continues to climb for another 2-3 months. I think we should pull back a bit but i don't see it happening.

  45. The depression is easing somewhat, but it will be many, many years before the positive effects of this are felt. Income taxes will have to be increased and possibly less government services offered in order to balance this colossol spending rampage.

  48. I think we will see one more dip but not a big one before we come out of recession. But it will be a slow and painful climb out of the recession. Phase 2 of real estate crisis may start to unravel itself and there will be no respite when the recession is over because the next big blow will be inflation.

    Trikaal

  50. I think there will be another major dip--not as deep as the first--and then we will start to climg out of it. The falling dollar is always a concern.

  51. The worst is over but it will be a very slow growth or staggering economy going forward (next 5 years). For now we will see deflation but a super high inflation should surface in the next 3 to 5 years (2012-2014).

    The global economy will become a local economy where distance will matter due to the coming super high inflation cycle.

  52. It's going to tank. There is no growth for the market to recover. The baby boomers are going to start to die off, straining real estate along with consumer spending. The downward spiral will continue for many years to come...

  56. I believe that we are going to have a weak jobless recovery. Certainly, a stubborn bull, but you can't keep on throwing pile upon pile of money to proof that you're wrong. An inevitable downturn (crash) is very imminent in order to have or show some form of confident in the free market system. It's the only way to finger-point to that faultiness in the system. Certainly, there are skeletons in the closet that needs to come out in order to have or reflect some form of recovery. After the downturn and then we can be a little more confident to invest.

  57. Not easing. The current upswing is a gas cloud. Simply printing more $$ will not strengthen the economy. Is debt America's biggest export?

  58. This is nothing more then a basic retracement. Loads of pain to come. Fed will eventually have to unwind near zero interest policies and until we have major job growth everything else just doesn't matter.

  59. I think the recession will ease until the next wave of real estate foreclosures hits. That will be in commercial RE rather than housing, and should hit for real next year. The additional killers will be if an enormously expensive health care "reform" program is passed and if inflation begins to take hold. The FRB will try to prevent the latter; the American public is trying to prevent the former. Both will probably fail so I expect the second half of 2010 to be bad news for us all.

  60. The recession is not easing yet. There is another one coming in few months. This is due to the commercial building mortgages maturing for pay back to various banks and the debtor companies will have problems meeting these payments and will explode into defaults & bankruptcies. This is definitely worse than the previous residential mortgages defaulting, as the commercila mortgages are too huge to handle.

    So, chartwise, it's going to be a double deep.

  61. Things will get worse before they get better, but it will not be till middle or end of next year before it turns back down.

  62. Not easing at all, Governments are "cooking" the books ,trying to persuade people that the recession is easing.
    As long as the govern. keeps bailling out those "banksters", and printing money, no one will believe the recession is easing.
    So I expect another downturn and it will start with the Dow and the S&P huge drops.

  63. Another leg down. We are at the second leg down in a W pattern. The bottom will not quite get to the last low but the recovery is going to be a long drag spanning a few years. After the stimulus run out... where do we stand? When the markets come to grips with that, can we really start talking about recession in the rear view mirror.

  65. Recession is easing and things will be picking up. Businesses cut too deep and will need to begin hiring. Maybe a couple of down weeks in sept/oct. but steadily getting better.

  66. I believe we are headed for one more huge downturn in the Stock Market -- possibly seeing the S&P around 600 to test the bottom one last time. This will catch most upbeat investors by surprise, resulting in more unfortunate losses for millions of people, lasting well into 2010. After this, I think the worst will be behind us and we can safely buy stocks once again.

  67. Downturn I'm afraid, I'm with EW's Bob Prechter on his impulse 3rd wave down. The biggest and most powerfull wave of EW theory. Hang on tight :-0
    A deflationary swing is about to kick in.

  69. I believe the recession is easing somewhat, but it won't be dramatic, it will be a slow recovery. The collective "we" has done a lot of damage and the steps taken so far to help redirect our course are having some effect, but the public is still very gun-shy of spending. But, optimism prevails and we are moving forward. Step by step, my friend.

  70. The Recession is not over and a downturn will start very soon. The market can not keep going up without a pullback. CNBC cannot keep telling everyone that the worst is behind us. The banks are still in trouble, they still keep failing. Unemployement is rising and that is not going to ease. The Government thinks they can just keep printing money, helping the banks and so on. We will all have to pay for that with higher taxes. The car program was a joke, most people were out buying new cars when everything was peaking, the people that bought a new car now probably have a montly payment that they didn't have, what a joke. The housing market is going up becasue they had the $8000.00 tax credit, what will happen when thats all gone, the same thing that is going to happen when the major car manufactures announce they have a big drop in the numbers since that program is over, and so will the housing market. The markets should start to ease back very soon and then we are going to have a hard drop which we could go lower then the last drop, we shall see. The markets cannot sustain an uptrend without earnings, they tells us there making money if you want to believe that, they change the accounting rules to make it all look good but it's NOT, Time will tell and we will go down.

  71. The recession will go through many more somewhat-major and mini-cycles before easing up.

    Prognosis: another 10 to 12 years of agony, see-the-light, wow-ups, bowwow downs, made-it-lost-it-again-dammits....

    Many puke-it-up traders will come and go....

  73. Another downturn is inevitable before the worst is over. Then, I suspect, there will be even more money printed and thrown at the problem largely for political expediency and to repay favours given. (Never mind the long term consequences of continued squandering).

  75. Until there is significant job growth and spending by the consumer, we will see further decay in earnings and overall consumer sentiment worsening.

    Stimulus money does not change the public perception of how the economy is fairing...in fact it cause anxiety due to perception that the economy is not strong enough to stand on it's own, therefore we need the government to intervene.

    The current cycle will run it's course over the next 5-10 years, causing significant damage to underlying psychological disposition of the public. A change in attitudes about what is important and what people need and want will take place...causing more job losses and curtailing the consumers appetite for "things".

  76. I believe another downturn is in the works. The trend is still down, and we may lose an entire generation of stock buyers in this next downturn. The loss of money in the market is followed by loss of confidence and trust in financial institutions, banks and the government. No amount of prodding or cajoling will convince the average investor to buy stock any more for at least half a generation. This may sound overly pessimistic but it is my perception at this time.

  78. There is no way the "recession" is over. This is developing into the greatest depression in hundreds of years.

  79. the worst is yet to come, how much more money are we going to give out to companys that should go under?
    why don't we all not go to work for a day and let our Goverment know that we are mad ,on how they are running our country in to the ground.

  81. Recession will remain flat or go down a tad.Will not move up untill we get people back to work so they can pay their bills & buy things.etc!You can not spend $ if nothing is coming in & credit is tight.

  86. I believe that we are going to bounce around here for awhile. I believe that this down turn will last at least for a couple of years, then slowly ease. It is terribly difficult to make any logical business decisions when we here that the sky is falling and one hour later you here that the recession is over?

  89. Sideways to Labor Day...then down again.

    This past week false breakouts/downs miffed the bulls with the bears...soon everyone will take their chips off the table.

  90. Another Downturn. For the people, we need another downturn, it will bring us together and more aware.

  93. Another downturn is coming..... though not in sight yet. It will be after 2010, I guess.

  96. Until the government stops infusing large amounts of money into the system we will experience another downturn. The private sector needs to be given back its freedom to prosper otherwise we will stagnate.

  97. Something doesn't add up when you look at the all of the facts.

    I believe that what makes us so inherently different from the rest of the world is what is presently wrong with us. We are optimists, can-do, never-give-up people. We can't take a recession emotionally, so we blur the details and toast each other's successes. Deserved or not, doesn't really matter...

    We believe that if we keep psyched up, we will pull up. We'll screw up, too, but somebody will figure out how to dress it up. Meanwhile, we'll make it look a whole lot better than it really is because we're optimists.

    It's a confusing time.

  98. Not easing! All stimulus is temporary. Housing problem was never fixed. Banks are bankrupt and more are failing every week. Foreclosures are not reported by banks on balance sheets and are on the rise. Interest rates are too low to encourage savings. September and October will set new record lows and they are the most notorious months in the market for panic selling.

  100. I think the recession is easing as we are reaching a bottom.
    Unfortunately that bottom is pretty low and the "recover" will be slow and arduous. The over spending by most administrations, old and new, will come back to haunt us in the not so distant future though so the recover will be short lived. Possibly only 1 or 2 years, then the SHTF
    doomsday scenario of deflation/hyper inflation is possible.

    In conclusion, short shallow recovery followed by long extended stagnation at best, SHTF collapse at worst.

    Not pretty.

    Pete

  101. The economic downfall may have come to a stop but for most Americans the pain is far from over. Real recovery will remain out of reach for many years to come as jobs will be sparse and our standard of living, compared to the rest of the world, will slowly fall.

  103. I am in total agreement with Ken, also the commercial real estate is about to turn over and soon after the credit card and finally the car loans.
    This is just the beginning folks, please don't kid yourselves and stop listening to the F-TV talking heads.
    My prediction, double recession with dollar at .52, gold at $1200+ and inflation gone hyper.

    Abolishing the Federal Reserve will be the best outcome and lessons learned, otherwise deep deep depression is awaiting us all.

    good luck to everyone!

  108. The recession looks like bottoming and at this stage it is very fragile and choppy.Unemployent will get worse before reversing its course as employer is unwilling to hire until the market condition is good

  109. Recession, and possibly Depression is still very much in the cards. Govt. throwing money around is setting up another bubble. When that bursts, with the high lending levels, by the people, business, and the Govt, we will have nowhere to go.

  110. Unemployment continues. The "paper mill" at the Treasury is churning out money 24/7. There will be a significant market downturn this Fall!

  111. The recession is definitely not over and will be re-emerge this Fall due to the commercial real estate taking a major downturn. The Fed cannot just keep printing money to bail everyone out. Sooner or later the bills have to be paid and this Fall seems to be the time when reality will kick in. It's time to get defensive and start looking at real assets because if it gets too bad the dollar will dive against stronger currencies.

  113. How can anyone consider the unabated excesses of this country's citzens, the dishonesty of its financiers, the gutlessness and self-serving posturing of our public officials and believe that the worst is over?

    None of the root causes have been addressed. No one is responsible. No one has been punished - except the taxpayer (present and distant future!) No one has a clue.

    More effort has been expended in papering over open wounds, showering the masses with funny money to buy more cars and homes and politically-motivated fairy tales - than in honest assessment and change.

    The Fed, the Treasury and the entire government has conspired with their Ivy League cronies on Wall St. to simply re-inflate the bubble - at the risk of trashing the US dollar and enslaving future generations with crushing debt.

    Poor decisions keep cascading. No one takes accountability. No one will deliver the bad news and strong medicine required.

    Former heroes like Paul Volcker are no longer possible. They are muzzled and handcuffed - trotted out like dogs and ponies - just for show.

    In the Internet Age, we are constantly dazed and confused by the almost daily rocking of the financial boat. We are in the eye of the Storm, surrounded by circling clouds, running seas and distant thunder, but the media and the government are planning the next picnic.

    The now decades-long succession of bubbles, crises and re-inflation - jumping from one assets class to another but never resolving - can only end in a 500-year Black Swan event. One so devastating that it will leave America changed forever.

    If we take a step back and consider the broader picture of what America has become, I ask anyone "How can this end well for America?".

  114. This supposed recession is much much more and will usher in a quantum shift in how America and Americans spend thier money for decades. God Bless

  116. The Recession is already over by 2nd quarter,base on recent ecconomic indicators, unemployment rate, housing,GDP, things are getting better but slowly.

  119. Too many unsolved problems in economy. Recession is not over. Next leg down is guaranteed. The only question when and from what level.

  120. There may be retracement of 10-20% and then one final leg up.
    There is pressure on the $US dollar and China/Japan will probably dictate its future direction.
    Unless the fed changes its present policy of low interest rates I feel that the markets will suffer.
    The banks must tighten their credit requirements and work with the fed
    to avert a catastrophe.
    Low interest rates and easy credit got us into this mess.

    $US

  121. This is just a small up for the market to be followed by another large down in the New Year, around the time of Jan - Feb 2010.

    1. Totally agree. I'm putting money on it (if I have some left over after credit cards and taxes).

  122. Yes, we are in a deep depression with more 'bad news' in the coming months and years. Those rallies are part of the market waves.

  123. We are in the mid of a recession/depression. The 'basic structure' of this 'game' in the US are broken. It will take a long time to fix. However, there will be occassional rallies, and we are in for some tough time ahead. It part of the market cycle.

  124. We only in the starting phase of the recession/depression. The market will be lower from now on except in October.The depression will be long
    lasting with occasional market rallies.
    There is another downturn in sight and its already started.

  125. Down Down Down

    As long as the economy is tied to a paper base instead of manufacturing, IMO we will continue to decline. Paper base? hmm Over the last 30 years or so .. manufacturing has departed this country and many of those unemployed have turned to the "Paper-Trades" i.e. Real Estate, Mortgage Brokers, Credit Brokers, Sales.
    Why on earth would you put all your eggs into one or two baskets? The housing market is all I heard about during the past 15-20 years. Seems the economic figures were based on housing starts. How many industries are tied to housing? Hey .. How many houses do you need? Generally one per family. And then, Ka-Boom, Conflagration .. we find the paper tigers going up in flames. Go Figure..
    Then there are the "Situational Ethics" spewed forth by the MBA's and Economist elite propogandists.. Screw you, I got (or will get) mine no matter what I have to tell you.. Bah!!!
    Am still wondering why the Government rewards failure, or is this a cover-up for massive swindle and other crimes.

    On a brighter note, learning financials through sites like this is actually fun.

    *Sigh Down down down
    1 Wreck

  126. This market is a fake rally built on manipulation and control since the plunge protection team has been working hard to prop up this economy. I predict that the next couple of months will not only decline but we will see what we did last September-October and maybe worse. Get out your foil cone hats folks we are in for a ride.

  129. Unfortunately, we are going down the same road that Japan has been on for the last decade, doing the same thing the same way. To this day it still has not worked for them. Reminds me of the definition of insanity.
    God Bless America.....CP

  131. Based on history recessions take a few years to start recovering. This recession is no ordinary, it is a global recession and will last well until 2011/2012. The governments are masking the truth so that we remain in a feel good state, which will allow them to carry on with their agenda.

    Going Down Big Time 🙂

  134. The government cannot correct this cycle by printing/pumping in more money. This is a correction that has been brewing for over twenty years through different administrations. It is as natural as gravity, absolutely obeys the rules of economics and is not your garden variety recession. Our economic structure will be very different after this has all been weeded out. However, if there is a V shaped recovery and things go back to what they were, then there will be a downturn of similar proportions, again and soon after the stated end of this recession.

  135. There is most definitely another downturn coming. Bernanke cannot afford to allow the dollar to go in the tank or the US will lose foreign interest. Quantitative easing programs will come to end by fall which will pull liquidity out. Deleveraging is still rampant. Unemployment is very high. Consumer spending is reaching all time lows. Credit is nowhere to be had. The S&P is at an astronomical PE ratio (143.95). The list goes on and on.......

  138. All indicators tends to believe that downturn should be today. But due to fake bulls movement, market is keep going up. Seems to be like that way for few more days and then big big downturn is coming... Beware of going long ....

  139. There is a a lot of optimism in the press about the rally during this recession. I think the up trend will continue to rise and the Dow will level off around 10,000; then we will probably see a major drop similar to what happened in March, 2009. Usually when the herd is going in the same direction, they end up being wrong, and will all run off of the cliff together. I didn't see any warnings being published before March 9 and nobody seemed to predict the 40-50% rally we have seen since. Taxpayer debt for the bailout has caused an underlying feeling of impending doom. Foreign ownership of the national debt has created instability in our economy. We just don't know how strong our financial allies are, and when or if they will pull the rug out from under our feet. I think we should prepare for a major downturn in the not too distant future.

  140. IMHO:
    Definitely going Down, Down, Down and most likely today!
    SPX500 has retraced to the Fib. 38.2% Level 1013.8 = market top [Oct 2007 High to Mar 2009 Low].
    Similar Fib.38.2% retrace Level to 1177.1 [Mar 2000 High to Sep 2001 Low] resulted in a ~35% Sell Off!

  142. I believe the recession is over and economy is building. However, there could be a strong down trend early next year.

  143. This, I feel, is only a temporary rally. Unemployment continues to rise, governments, both in the USA and here in the UK, continue to pump money into their repsective economies. I do wonder if some pundits seem to think that by talking up the current signs of (slight) improvement in some areas we can talk our way comletely out of the recession.

  145. A short easing followed by another downturn. When the government continues to spend money it doesn't have, the dollar will go down. Trouble ahead.

  146. Another downturn sometime in the autumn. Previous recoveries from bear markets have shown a progression upwards with significant pullbacks some months in. The 50% rise in the S&P puts it into overvalued territory both short and long term since the earnings recoveries are not yet in place. Big picture there will be a 2-4 year bull before another flump until finally valuations are in line with reality around 2017.

  147. And how do you define "recession"? If you're talking quarters of negative GNP then yes it's easing. If you're talking about unemployment (I think a better measure) then no it's not. (Bty, unemployment going from 9.5% to 9.4% due to people dropping out of the workforce because they've given up looking for work so they're not now counted as unemployed is not "easing".

    I don't think we'll be out of what feels like a recession until 2011 and things could get worse if rumored problems with the euro banks or China come to fruition. And this ignores any mega global "black swans" not to mention whatever our politicians do to turn a bad situation worse (like protectionism, higher taxes, etc).

  148. good move coming in stock mkt after small correction-too much money wanting in - still too many scared- crude correction now but looks like a breake above 75 coming and will last until march next year - us dollar low coming 2012-look out for silver if manupalition gets away from naked shorts banksters

  150. After so much stimulus (fiscal, monetary, bail outs, market driven valuations...) this recession has stalled (easing sounds cynic as as we still have 150 to 200 K jobs out of the window every month...). What will happen when this stimulus start fading? How do we keep the monster credit bubble (consumer, government) from bursting? When it does, this is not going to look pretty...if it doesn't it's not going to look pretty either as the price to pay will be hyperinflation and the loss of the USD as currency reserve.
    Let's hope financial engineering comes up with something that solves this mess without pain and suffering...

  151. The government "stimulus" is responsible for the temporary upswing, but overspending is what got us into this mess to begin with. Consumers are increasing their savings rate, but the government is offsetting that by spending more than ever in history. Once this stimulus runs out, we'll see another sharp downturn coupled with high inflation from all the printed money. We are in for very tough times...

  152. I think were experiencing another period of irrational exhuberance. As soon as the government stimuluus effect runs out, we'll see another serious downturn. There's nothing substantive going on in the economy that can support the current bull market.

  153. Not easing - the shipping stocks have not really moved, when construction, jobs, real business (not just iPhone sales and injection into banks), and import/export trade picks up, these will. They have been posting bad earnings reports and guidance, and their stock prices haven't followed the rest of the market.

  155. Easing.. Easing but much more slowly in California, which is in a financial mess. We're looking at another stimulus package in the works and lurking around the corner is rampant inflation. The next five years should be extremely difficult with the government trying to stimulate the economy and fighting inflation at the same time and no job growth.

  156. Double recession will happen when the Fed realizes it has to start to raise interest rates to avert the inevitable inflation.

  159. The excesses of the past several years are playing out. I believe the tsunami of economic growth of the past 20+ years is over. In the natural world the tidal swings return to normal ebb end flows. I don't foresee exceptional growth or recession in the nearer future. The major suction of the tsunami's return to the ocean is over. But, there will be another tsunami. I suspect this time the impetus will be nano-technologies.

  161. The mkts have all moved up for the past X days, the herd mentally is in place, but there will be a pull back very soon, I see it happening this coming week, monday could be Black monday.

    The recession is not over, we are approaching Nov / Dec, folks are without jobs , housing mortgage are down.. But watch this Xmas
    there will be all kinds of sales to stimulate the economy, It will struggle to recover from this hard economic times and markets will go back down.

    protect your investments,
    Obama will not be have his Cake, no health prgm.
    Lack of confidence on Obama and his Oduma administration.

    Look for downn markets -

  162. Cyles alone declare the redession is not over. But more to the point is how the politicians that are planning this "recovery" are going to prevent the "inevitable" inflation. That must follow the vast flow of borrowed $. That process will lead to another bubble and another bust.

    For inflation not to occur $ dollars must disappear from circulation and these disappearing dollars must come from peolple that have $ and are silly enough or stupid enough to give them up. The only demographic that qualifies is the american investor. How does it feel to have a target on your back.

  163. Both:the recession IS easing (temporarily) AND another downturn is ahead.

    Anyone who has ever experienced a hurricane and been in the "eye" can testify to the quiet calm that exists when directly in the center of the storm; it is a quiet, calm, spooky bliss.

    Unlike a hurricane, in which the intensity of both sides is usually equal - only the wind direction changes - the next phase of the economic storm is likely to be worse than the first phase because the government's actions to fend off reality while the culprits cover their tracks will only make things worse for the little guy.

    And Bubble Ben will keep saying that no one could have seen it coming.

  164. The economy is going down but it is about to turn into a total disaster if Trillion dollar Cap & Trade passes. It will contribute nothing. China and India will not do it oan others who signed the Kyoto Accord found it was bankrupting their economies so they have abandoned it.

    Now whe are about to get a Trillion dollar Universal health care bill which is not universal. The elitest in Washington will have their own health care bill which will be far better than ours thanks to the Ted Kennedy amendment. Socialist meand the same for all. Ubiversal means the same for all. The Obama plans sound like the socialism in the book Animal Farm where some are more equal than others. Happy nightmares. There are good investnments but not in the USA at this time unless you are short.

  165. The recession is not over. We will probably need another stimulus,
    but can we afford it.

  167. The way the USD is traveling against our AUD, I’d say not easing. You look like having a hard road ahead.

  168. With all the liquidity pouring into the system, recession will be easing at the expense of future inflation or stagflation. We are seeing a temporary relief now, but don't expect to see the Dow back up to 14,000 for a while.

  169. .The US economy is in the tank for the short to medium term and in the long term if this country is to survive there will have to be a mayor pardigm shift which is going to be very painfull financially.The green shoot message that we are hearing in regards to the economy stablizing
    is just the calm before the storm. The US consumer makes up 70 percent of GDP spending, so with the average joe unemployed and under employed, the only thing he will be in is survival mode with no discrecenary spending as evident in the major job losses in the service sector.The rising savings rate , which is at almost 7 percent will also keep the economy on its knees.Washington has their heads in the sand about the coming four horsemen .The first is 1 trillion in credit card debt with a projected 10 percent default rate . Number two, hundreds of billion in
    commercial real estate loans are now behind defaults rising.Number three,tens of billion in arms mortgages are coming due this and next year.Finally the grand daddy,the deficit, which will have to be dealt with by massive program cuts and major tax increases.Oh and l almost forgot a little thing called the housing industry where 300,000 fore closures are coming on the market every month and real estate deflation
    is dropping like a rock which will lead to many more financially straped consumers defaulting.

  170. Cyclical bull market rally within the secular bear market that started in 2000. 15.6% drop in GDP over last several quarters= Depression.
    I hope the American people take back their country by voting the National Socialists out of Washington. Hoping for improvement but fearing an out of control congress.Things cycle around and this "perfect storm" will end.
    "Democracy is 2 wolves and a sheep voting on what to eat for lunch,Liberty is a well armed sheep protesting the vote.
    Ben Franklin

  173. It is my belief that there will be a lot of disappointed people in the second half of the year which will lead to another sharp decline in the stock market. We have not given back any gains garnered since the March low and seems unhealthy and artificial.

    The economy is not improving as dramatically as broadcasted by cheerleaders on TV networks, eg. CNBC. The markets are temporarily improving due to the numerous stimulus packages in the US and around the globe as well as the devalued dollar. Once the stimulus fizzles, people will realize that the fundamentals are far from the 2007 highs. Current government actions are only prolonging the inevitable. There will be huge inflation down our current path.

    Once China rolls over and when the bubble bursts we will find a lot of people with their smiles to turn upside down.

    Wealth creation is not by printing/spending money one doesn't have, or else we would all be rich, so would the country of Zimbabwe.

    1. Thomas, we think alike-- that's the way i see it..CNBC / news followers are all smiles and keep saying that the market has found the bottom and mkts will trend up... herd maentality sunk in.

  174. Most definitely onother down turn.I will be surprised if there is not,markets try to push on news that isnot as bad as expected but really.IT IS

  175. The hype on the end of the recession is a political falacy. Falacy because it will not end for all people at the same time. 16% unemployment in Indiana today is not being calculated the same way it was in 1987, 1957 or 1929, HYPE. The bail out guarantees inflation for those at the end of the food chain while it profits those at the beginning of that same chain. The broad population has always paid for the mistakes and frivolous actions and outright criminality of those in power and, sadly, always will be. While many Privates die in wars very few Generals do. To be blunt, buy the hype, pay the bill.
    Those on fixed incomes may not live to see the end of this recession. Those with low paying jobs will see it last and through the lens of hunger. Construction laborers are used to the seaonality in that field and the younger folk have little or nothing to compare it to.
    Those closer to the beginning of the food cahin will/have felt this most thoroughly because they have become asccustomed to the affluence of a bull market and have come to feel it is their due. For those at the top of the food chain this recession/depression is nothing more than a buying opportunity.
    The "Devil is in the details" is an old concept that is wholely appropriate today and looking for the cause of this mess is not hard to find. Who in the SEC voted to remove the uptic rule and why are these people not equated with Charles Manson? This removal allowed for the human fear reaction to be much more broadly manifested in Price Action of most markets. Why it is not broadly published so that those most effected know who created this is just more hype to benefit those in power. The human condition is an emotional one. Were the truth of this scene to be made broadly known "Common Sense" might just become common again.
    Honesty is the missing ingredient in most, if not all, failures. While a liberal dose of ignorance is always a major ingredient.

  176. I think another downturn is in sight, due to lack of jobs, poor consumer spending and a slide in commodity prices due to speculation limits coming in November.

  177. yes,still another downturn, after this small pullback, which will be more deeper than previous one and also longer in duration. We will not see smooth growth as past 10 years.

  179. Since I think we are in a bear market bounce, I would say we still have a downside.

    On another note - Any chance you might reverse these comments, and put the most recent on top along with this comment section?

    Thanks.

    PS: I love Market Club!!!

  181. Crikey !
    They must think we're all a sandwich short of a picnic. There seem to be a lot of snakes in the grass coming the raw prawn with the green shoot fairy tale. Even the crows are flying backwards to keep the bulldust out of their eyes. It appears that you don't have to be the sharpest knife in the kitchen to feel a tad uneasy, a little queasy even, with the current situation. There's something not quite ridgy didge about the whole setup. Do you get the feeling that someone, somewhere, is not really being fair dinkum. Maybe, even blind Freddy could tell you that they're flogging shares to us in the Sydney Harbour Bridge and when they're finished they'll be out of here quicker than a Bondi Tram. Really, maybe they may think that we're all as silly as two bob watches if we believe everything is hunky dory again. Rings a bell, as in "..she'll be right mate, no worries, the cheques in the mail..". By the time this is over, maybe all we'll be able to afford to eat is a bit of bread and duck under the table. Perhaps we'll all be a bit like Roo's brother Ted, ie: RooTed. Cheers.

  183. You can keep shoving swill into a pig and you can keep piling on the lipstick but one day the lipstick runs out, the swill makes the immaculate journey, nature takes it course and the unmentionable hits the proverbial fan!! That day is fast approaching

  184. No doubt there is an easing in the recession. But the question is how long will it last? First we have to realize that the positive GDP and reported gains in some companies, as seen in the auto industry is just numbers. I mean, for example how can companies post positive reports when they are able to do so because they are still laying off workers.That just doesn't seem positive enough for me.
    I believe the recession will resume with a vengeance; especially since it has not really abated with all aspects of the economy.

  185. I am so confident that this economy is going DOWN, DOWN, DOWN I, unfortunately, would be willing to bet everything that I own on it. Our government is bankrupting us - there is no if's, and's or but's about it. The unemployment rate is at an ALL-TIME HIGH. We need to be creating jobs, but instead this administration is destroying the infrastructure that is necessary for companies to hire and retain employees. Any five-year-old can tell you that it's impossible to get out of debt by spending money. You get out of debt by conserving your money, paying off your debt, and when you must spend, spend wisely - with cash only. In other words - LIVE WITHIN YOUR MEANS. If you can't afford it, don't buy it. If the health care reform bill passes, we are doomed. The writing is on the wall. This government does not believe in free enterprise. It does not believe that we have the common sense to make our own decisions when it comes to spending the money that we work so hard for to support our own families. The only hope this country has is to vote the left-wing liberals out of office as quickly as possible. If we don't, I fear this country will soon be referred to as the United States of China.

  187. The recession is only appearing to be easing because of the massive bailouts. Economic data has not been as bad as expected, but we don't have real growth yet. "Less bad than expected" results have driven the rally, and now we are headed for another spike in the rally due to money managers who missed the first leg feeling that they must get in.

    Bullish sentiment has been rising week on week for several weeks, but it's still not so high that there isn't room for the rally to continue a little longer. Earnings reporting has been "better than expected" in many cases, only because profitability has improved via cost cutting and layoffs, but the top lines are not growing. Next round of earnings we'll see there is no more to be gained by such measures, and we'll see more companies failing completely, and continued lack of top line revenue growth. Then the reality will sink in, and the market with it.

  188. American GDP is 70% consumer spending.
    The consumer is shot dead by a double barrel load of debt and unemployment. These wounds are going to prove long lasting.
    Which is to say that fundamentals will suck for a long time. There's nothing there to support a healthy, long term recovery. So, the market will crash again sometime over the next 12 months. That will wipe out a lot of whatever little money were made over the last market rally...

    The market does usually anticipate a recovery, but the last months were only proof of how greedy people really became. It was no "anticipation" of better times, but a desperate attempt to recover the losses incurred up to March. This is classic gambling behaviour: double-up and hope for a good hand. It always end up in tears...

    It's not only pure behaviourism though. There still is a huge pile of liquidity out there is search for yield. Stocks, commodities, and assets appreciation in general is nothing but a way of masking real inflation. If you wanna see real stock market gain, just compare those numbers against gold, or a foreign currency of choice (AUD, CAD, Euro...)

    The name of the game is STAGFLATION.
    Survivors of the Carter era know all about it... 🙂

  190. I think were in a bear rally near the top and set for a drop.
    We then may be range bound trading in the low to mid 900s; then a slight upswing again before dropping again in Sept/Oct.

  194. Canadian recession is easying & many economists aren't predicting another shoe to drop.

  198. What we're seeing at present is just the storm clouds gathering,the big fall is yet to come ,and the extent of it will surprize even the
    greatest pesimist or optimist,the years 2010--2011 and even 2012 will be years to Remember.

  199. Definately another downturn in sight! With another round of bubbles... inflation, properties, china etc bubbles! Hold on to your seat and ride it out!! Hahaha!!

  200. I believe the American people are making the necessary adjustment to improve the economy, but I don't believe government spending can sustain an economy. In fact, I believe it is doing damage, and the proper thing to do would be to take the short-term pain to build a better long-term foundation.

    There is no doubt that numbers look better these last few weeks, but a lot of that is based on the rally that has come too far too fast. A faltering market could lead another set of bad numbers.

    For our sakes, I hope it doesn't happen, but I believe we have been ignoring many of the fundamental issues that haven't been fixed, and there is a strong possibility of more fallout.

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