Let's Take Another Look at Crude Oil

Posted on by The INO.com Team

I've had a number of requests from MarketClub members to produce another video on crude oil. Part of that may have come from the crude oil alert that we put on our blog on October 12.

What is interesting about crude oil is the fact that seasonally, it should be going down. However, the market appears to be doing just the opposite. We have written about this before and when something is supposed to happen and the opposite occurs, it's time to pay attention.

What was also interesting in crude oil is the fact that all of our "Trade Triangles" are all green giving a perfect 100% Chart Analysis score. This indicates that there are some strong trends in place and the odds are that the market should go higher. However, this is not a guarantee and all trades should be managed with stops.

In my new short video, I show some levels that crude oil could potentially go to. I also indicate a key level that many professional traders are watching and if this level is broken, it will certainly be a game changer.

This video is free to view and there are no registration requirements. The one request we have is that you comment on our blog about your thoughts on crude oil.

All the best,

Adam Hewison

President of INO.com

Co-creator of MarketClub.com

16 thoughts on “Let's Take Another Look at Crude Oil”

  1. Richard,

    When the monthly triangles go red you simply short the ETF. You do this by borrowing shares from your broker. I recommend that you check with your broker to see if they make this service available.

    I know that it is available at Charles Schwab & Co.

    Good luck and ensure your success was in the year.

    Adam

  2. Hi Adam,
    I saw the perfect portfolio video and would like to set up a perfect portfolio. According to the perfect portfolio video, I should allocate my funds into (25%) oil (USO), (25%) gold (GLD), and (25%) Euro (FXE) and (25%) SPY. When the monthly triangles are green, I go long and when red go short.

    Before I can setup my perfect portfolio, I have a question. When the monthly triangles go red, how do I short USO, GLD, FXE and SPY? Are there inverse ETFs for these stocks? I am new to shorting stocks and have only shorted the Dow via inverse ETF (DXD) or do I need to open a margin account, so that I can short the stock directly?

    Thanks,
    Richard

  3. Key to trading is consistency. If you're consistently wrong, just trade the opposite direction of what you want to trade...lol. Seriously though, once you find your "edge"...trade it consistently...with consistent money management. If you do not have an "edge", then yes Ross, you are gambling.

  4. Market club service has been great. Adam try to educate traders about its opinion where the market is heading, and how the trade triangle performing. Venting online looks not to be a good bet…my 2 cents

  5. Hi Adam,

    I saw the perfect portfolio video and would like to set up a perfect portfolio. According to the perfect portfolio video, I should allocate my funds into (25%) oil (USO), (25%) gold (GLD), and (25%) Euro (FXE) and (25%) SPY. When the monthly triangles are green, I go long and when red go short.

    Before I can setup my perfect portfolio, I have a question. When the monthly triangles go red, how do I short USO, GLD, FXE and SPY? Are there inverse ETFs for these stocks? I am new to shorting stocks and have only shorted the Dow via inverse ETF (DXD) or do I need to open a margin account, so that I can short the stock directly?

    Thanks,
    Richard

    1. Richard,

      Thanks for your comment and feedback.

      According to Schwab all of these ETFs can be shorted. You may wish to check with your broker as a safety measure.

      All the best,
      Adam

  6. Ross:
    I want to acknowledge you for the honesty, insight and experience-sharing you offered in your post. However, I also note the sarcasm, criticism and bitterness in your writing. My question to you is “Why vent online?” Your writing says far more about you than it does about trading. And this forum is supposed to be about trading.

    The reality of it is that small-timers like you and me and the majority of the readers here are struggling with fairly impossible odds while we are trying to attain some success. But that is the reality for mankind. Few attain high success in any area of endeavor -but we try anyway. Our adventures are hard, discouraging and often financially and emotionally painful. And the large majority of us will never attain anything of significance. So why throw gasoline on the fire? We know how difficult it all is but we want to keep pursuing success anyway.

    What I do is work hard, learn as much as I can and remain very quiet about any of the struggle other than sharing what might help others. And this kind of thinking keeps me going.

    Lane Anderson

  7. Please read with humor, not trying to be nasty. I'll be brief as possible: Got into commodities and lost my skin - was ignorant, lazy, stupid, greedy and gullible. No longer believe in any "buzzwords" like "gurus", "experts", "candlesticks", "triangles", "retrenchment",- all bs to me. I don't think you can see anything in a chart. If it goes up, it goes up, if it goes down, it goes down, period! It should be called "commodities GAMBLING", stock "GAMBLING" and "options GAMBLING". I look at the psychology behind everything now: Vegas - no windows, clocks, no money. You get hypnotized into thinking you're playing fun games by using plastic chips, not real money.
    Your opening statements prove me right. You wrote:

    "What is interesting about crude oil is the fact that seasonally, it should be going down. However, the market appears to be doing just the opposite. We have written about this before and when something is supposed to happen and the opposite occurs, it’s time to pay attention.
    (isn't it time to always pay attention?)
    What was also interesting in crude oil is the fact that all of our “Trade Triangles” are all green giving a perfect 100% Chart Analysis score."

    ..."a perfect 100% Chart Analysis Score?" So, even a "seasoned gambler" like you got fooled, eh? lol.

    I love doing research, and before I "invest/gamble/trade" again, I will be doing a lot more of it, by correlating whatever interests me to one or two other things, like maybe what the item did historically when it was in this position versus gold, silver, corn, peanut butter, astrology, or whatever I can tie it to, so that there might be some sort of certainty.
    Wouldn't you just loved to have said: "I'm Adam Hewison and even though crude oil should be going down, I'm telling you it's going up."
    Years ago, I came up with this little ditty: "If you're so smart, how come you're not rich? It's because you're not smart enough to realize just how dumb you really are."
    Thanks. LOL I only write to amuse myself. Hope I haven't offended anyone.

  8. ADAM, THANKS FOR ALL THE GREAT ALERTS AND VIDEO'S. I REALLY ENJOY AND PROFIT FROM USING MARKETCLUB! THANKS AGAIN TO YOU AND ALL THE GREAT STAFF AT MARKETCLUB. HAPPY TRADING, RD SPENCER

  12. What ETF do you recommend to match the oil market Adam? USO? Looks like that needs to get above $38.75 to break out.

    Where are you from in England? I'm from Sussex but now in Texas!

    Keith

  13. Hi Adam,
    I liked the Perfect Portfolio using SAR. I have a couple of questions....why FXE and Not FXA or FXC?

    When I short SPY, do I have to pay the dividend out twice? ONe to the owner and one to the brokerage house?

    Thanks
    Jake

  14. Hi Adam: I just finished watching the "Perfect Portfolio" video. Great suggestion. The diversification tools seem sound and the Monthly TT is effective assuming it is possible to short the ETFs. However, since I trade with my IRA and shorting is not permitted are there any reverse ETFs for USO, FXE and GLD similar to the reverse of SPY which is SH? I realize the SPY/SH is not a perfect correlation but it beats not being in the market.
    Regards,
    Vince

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