Why gold will not make new highs or lows this year

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Gold has had some dramatic moves in the last eighteen months and we expect it will have some equally dramatic moves in the future, but not right now.

While I recognize that gold is one of the few commodity markets that people are really passionate about; the purpose of this article is not to take sides either with the gold bugs or those who reject the argument that gold is forever.  Rather, I want to discuss my interpretation of the markets cycle.

Watch this weeks gold video.

After spot gold made an all-time high against the dollar on December 2 at $1,226.37, gold has been in retreat mode. For the for the past several months gold has been in a broad trading range, seemingly unable to move one way or another. This process has created frustration from bulls and bears alike.

Here is the dirty little secret about the gold market. It can be a horrible investment and here's why:

Gold first started trading in the 80s while I was on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in Chicago as a member of the International Monetary Market, (IMM) which was at that time a division of the CME now the CME Group.  When gold opened up the public clamored to buy into the gold futures market and guess who sold it to them? Thats right it was the pros- the guys who made their living trading. As a result, gold hit an all-time high of around $850 an ounce back then and it took almost 25 years for gold to move over that level, at least in dollar terms. I dont know what your timeline is, but 25 to 30 years is an awful long time to get even again.

So what is really happening in this market?

Everyone is aware of the problems in Europe with Greece, Portugal and a host of yet to be named countries. We all know that the huge amount of money being printed, coupled with the bank failures abroad contribute to the dollars declining value. These events, in conjunction with the American governments actions, also contribute to the devaluation of the dollar. The government claims that this is beneficial to exports, but the bottom line is that the purchasing power of the American dollar continues to erode in world markets.

Based on the declining value of world currency against gold you might ask- why isnt gold trading at $2,000 or even $3,000 an ounce? What is wrong with this market? This is because a great deal of what goes into the gold market is psychological and reacts to cyclic trends driven by both psychological and economic factors.

So what does all this have to do with the price of gold now? It has everything to do with gold and nothing to do with gold.

Here is what I've been able to observe in the last several years in gold and seems to be holding true.  It is something that you should pay attention to if you're interested in the next big move in the gold market.

Before gold can move higher it needs to create what I call an "energy field".  The most recent energy fields in gold were between May 12, 2006 and September 20, 2007. This 17 month energy field saw gold prices oscillate between a broad trading range bound by $730.08 (upside) and $541.80 (downside).  That energy field produced enough power to propel gold to the new high of $1,012.40 on March 17, 2008. This marked the first time gold exceeded, in dollar terms, the highs set in the early 80s mentioned earlier.

Watch this weeks gold video.

The energy fields I have observed for gold are taking somewhere between 17 and 18 months to complete. If the energy field holds, then the December 3rd 2009 high of $1,226.37 should remain in place for quite some time. If the same cycle remains true then the recent lows that we witnessed, at $1,050, should also remain intact as they represent the 15 to 16 month cycle low.

With the lows in place the next question becomes when is the next cyclical high in gold? Based on the existing cycle, we can expect the next major gold high in 2011.

To summarize: I expect gold to be locked in a broad trading range for the next 12 months bounded by the December 09 highs of 1,226.37 and the lows of $1,050.00. If the gold cycle holds true, we expect that gold tops the $1,226.37 marker by April or May of 2011.

On the on the upside we will also be looking for gold to make a nature cyclic high in October or November of 2011. It's impossible to predict the future with any degree of accuracy; however when we look at the cycles in gold this reads as a pretty good bet.

No matter what happens we expect gold will offer some great trading opportunities that investors and traders should be able to take advantage of.

As I always discuss- in trading one should approach gold or any other market with a game plan and proper money management stops. The key to success in this decade will be an investors willingness to move in and out of asset classes such as gold and be well diversified into more than one asset class. That way you wont be left holding the bag for the next 25 years. Our World Commodity Portfolio is a good example of this approach and one I believe will serve investors well in the coming years.

Watch this weeks gold video.

As always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. I would really like to hear back from you in regards to your thoughts on this video. Watch this video.

Your comments are welcome.

All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

84 thoughts on “Why gold will not make new highs or lows this year”

  1. this thread still exists? Adam, do yourself a favor and lay this one to rest. I can't figure why you felt it neccessary to read outside the lines. You designed a technical indicator that gives monthly, weekly and daily buy and sell signals. Let the system do the talking. Analysis beyond the system, such as discussing periods of consolidation that create energy baselines, is problematic. What happens when the pattern changes? The Trade Triangles will pick up on it.

    Somebody here predicted new highs for Gold before the end of May. oh yeah, that was me.

    Feel free to ask me for my opinion anytime.

  2. John,

    Thank you for your feedback.

    In my last post I said that nothing elicits more emotion and passion than the subject of gold. How true that is today.

    I have to go back and look at some of the videos which I've included for you to see to say that I was never long term bearish on gold. I'm not sure where that came from.

    In fact if you look at our Trade Triangle technology in our monthly trade triangles you can clearly see that we've been advocating a long position in gold since February 11, 2009 from $929.50, that's almost $300 ago!!

    Take a look at these videos and you'll see what I was saying and when I was saying it.

    I have been a trader for many years and one thing I do know is that you don't stick with losing positions. So let's move, I want the markets, only by moving Kenny make up a lot of money it's that simple.

    So let's all enjoy the upside movement in gold and may continue.

    Here is a list of all the videos I've made for the past several months.

    Enjoy,

    http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold510/

    http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold420/

    http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold412/

    http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold329/

    http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold313/

    http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold38/

    http://broadcast.ino.com/education/5reasons/

    http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold211/

    http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold1216/

    http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold1118/

    http://broadcast.ino.com/education/spotgold1112/

    http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold1110/

    All the best,
    Adam

  4. Glacier,

    Thanks for your feedback.

    I made an analysis based on the cyclic tendencies of gold and past price patterns in that market.

    Any fundamental information can change the big picture. The key to trading IMHO is to be flexible. When you do that you win which after all is the object of the game.

    All the best,

    Adam

  5. Databoy,

    Thank you for your feedback.

    You are referring to a post that was made almost 6 weeks ago. Now I'm sure you know, as traders you're allowed to change your mind just as the market changes.

    Our trade triangle technology which you may or may not be familiar with is long gold.

    Getting back to the video, we said that if the pattern is similar to the previous two patterns then the market should go sideways and not make a new high for the year. As of May 7 gold has not made a new high for the year and it still remains to be proven if it will make a new high.

    Having said that our trade triangle technology is long gold along with everyone elses.

    Let's see how things turn out shall we.

    All the best,
    Adam

    PS take another look at the video and see exactly what I say and not what you think you may have heard. Thanks.

    1. Adam, first your remark about the trade triangles being long is irrelevant because it's a reacting system. Sooner of later it will always follow the trend.

      You made a prediction based on an assumption, that is that the problems with Greece won't sink in for a while. Do you care to give more details why that was your thinking?
      I assume after the turmoil last week you've changed your mind? I'd suggest you make another video about the importance of the big picture especially now. Greece is just the beginning.

  6. Hey 55mph Do you remember that Captain Crunch commercial with the blue creature that went Waffle waffle waffle in a high pitch voice?

    Reserve you right. Make up you mind this Adam guy speaks plainly and says gold won't go over 1226 this year. Wonder if other defaults due to printing and bad investment(fraud) devices in other countries as well as the US being used will cause the price of Gold to go over 1226.

    IT WILL ABSOLUTELY go over 1226.

    Fraud in the metals market, fraud in the trades, fraud in printing dollars - and Reminbi, Fraud fraud fraud

    Get your Oxygen masks on, there is no air on the Moon.

  7. "I do not think (and I reserve the right to chage my mind as all good traders do) that gold will not move over the 1226 this year."

    shhh, no need to think this out loud. let Trade Triangles do the thinking for you. Trade Traingles is automated. Thinking is over rated.

    the Monthly and weekly still look good?

    i think we'll see new Gold highs before the end of May. this prediction has been confirmed by Oiuja.

    1. 55mph,

      There is nothing wrong with letting the Trade Triangle do your thinking for you. All the triangles are green and go on gold at the moment.

      All the best,
      Adam

  8. SHAME on goldman sachs for spoiling our party upwards in gold ! that put a slight damper on gold drive up BUT thats ok ! what adams charts do not show is the fundamentals driving up gold especially now ! charts deal with past movements to determine future events...charts dont always work when big occurances like DEBT LADEN GREECE GETS READY TO REQUEST A RESCUE PACKAGE FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION......RESCUE PACKAGE REQUEST NEWS LIFTED THE EURO OFF 1 YEAR LOWS,CAUSED GREEK BONDS TO RALLY,VARIOUS STOCK INDICES TO RISE,MADE THE USA DOLLAR RETREAT A BIT !- yesssss hahaha! WHICH CAUSED COMMODITIES TO RALLY ! THIS ADAM IS WHAT YOUR CHARTING AND ENERGY FIELDS DO NOT SHOW - THE FUNDAMENTALS THAT ARE DRIVING UP THIS MARKET especially in gold and silver,commodities ! these fundamentals and more are what will drive up gold to new highs this year and this " concept " you have that points out to you that gold will not make a new high this year will prove to be inaccurate and wrong ..... cheers adam !

    1. Lou,

      All the fundamental facts are well known in the marketplace.

      The fact is gold is up about 5% for the year after almost 4 months of trading. I think there are many more stocks and other markets that have outperformed the gold market during that time.

      Our trade triangle are long gold at this time and have done very well in this market overtime. What the chart can and do help with is timing.

      Cycle wise I believe that we are going to remain in a broad trading range similar to previous patterns we have seen in gold in the past. I do not think (and I reserve the right to chage my mind as all good traders do) that gold will not move over the 1226 this year.

      All the best,
      Adam

  9. like it was mentioned earlier .... the market will release earnings reports as we saw today with intel... with these earning reports the market will and HAS risen higher AND THE GOLD EQUITIES ALONG WITH GOLD WILL ALSO ... get ready for gold to soon break the resistance of 1160 that adam talked about... CHEERS

  10. 6 weeks till the next gold high is ALOT sooner than next year like adam says for the next high ... how are you interpreting the trade triangles so MUCH different than adam 55mgh gl ?

    1. Hi Jay,

      A blog visitor accidentally sent me this message, instead of sending it directly to you. Just wanted to pass it along...

      "jay, i'm not interpreting the Trade Triangles. i am reading the chart differently than Adam's Technical Analysis program. I see a different set up emerging and i don't think Gold will need the same extended periods of basing following a surge, as we've seen over the past two years, to accomplish a new high, north of 1225."

      ~Craig S.

      Thanks,

      Lindsay Bittinger
      INO.com & MarketClub

  11. It is our ascertain gold will reach 1300 by July 31 2010. FX data analysis and consolidation shows clearly that it will do this. We are buying now and will sell then.

    But not the long term holdings. It would be ludacrist to get rid of all your gold in the face of FIAT money hehehehe.

    So we thing your 1226 will be breached - so much so that we are saying your simply wrong - the data does not support your claims.

    Databoy

  12. I was a buyer in quantity at $314. I don't know what gold is going to do next and never have. But there are manifestations which give relatively reliable indications. I am not trying to be offensive, I am just trying to deal in information. One thing that seems to me relatively less reliable than numerous other items of information is when someone bases an opinion about gold's future movements on only one type of understanding. Technical analysis is very important, and often it gives very reliable indications of future action. But in my experience few individuals have been able to employ these accurately and with consistently perceptive ability. Professionals on the Internet and other places are not an exception. I benefit from Adam's work. But no one's work is going to be perfectly reliable all of the time.

  13. Trade Triangles is an automated Technical analysis program. The creator of the program designed the Triangle alerts to analyze trend, differentiating the analysis as daily, weekly and monthly.

    From the creator's perspective, all available information is represented in the daily, weekly and monthly Trade Triangles. Isn't that what pure technical analysis does? TA dispassionately analyzes the trend.

    Manipulation, delivery issues, monetary concepts and price trends are reflected in Trade Triangles trend analysis. That's the nature of TA.

    If you want to debate Gold's fundamentals, that needs to be done on a different forum.

    I analyze the Gold chart a little differently than Adam. I think we'll see New Gold highs within the next 6 weeks. I was a buyer under 1,110 and i'll be a seller over 1,275.

    gl

  14. Adam, please take a look at the big picture. The gold/silver manipulation, the biggest financial scandal in history, has now been picked up by the New York Post. Soon it will be all over the news.
    I'd say there's a very big chance this will attract at least that many buyers that the gold price is going up no matter what technical analysis is being thrown at it.

    I sure hope you're not in denial that the price has been manipulated. The facts are very clear.

  16. Lou,

    It was a quote.

    I am a trader like you and I am not stupid. If the market is going higher I will be long. If it is going down I will be short.

    What I showed in my earlier video are lot's of trading opportunities this year but the big move will be in 2011.

    Markets and events and yes, cycles can and do change. As a trader you must be flexible and change with the market and the trend. Not to do so will certainly shorten a trading career.

    All the best,
    Adam

  17. one day at a time and yet you state FOR THE MANY DAYS THAT ARE LEFT OF THIS YEAR WE WILL NOT SEE GOLD HIT PAST $ 1226.37 ACHIEVING A NEW HIGH THIS YEAR .............

  18. Joe,

    Thanks for your feedback.

    I will leave it like this:

    “The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time.”

    Abraham Lincoln quotes (American 16th US President (1861-65)

    All the best,

    Adam

  19. whoops excuse me wayne ! lol meant to type ralph Deans get over it and join us in making some cash dude ! i agree with you wayne... there is no talk about manipulation or china or india demand or other very relevent topics concerning gold price... just adams energy field and whatever else he posts... but we know he is mistaken concerning gold not making another high this year... i suggest we all remind him of his blunder when it occurs !!

  22. on march 22nd it was noted that the sentiment for gold turned bearish,which should be a set up for a rally soon.. gold bottomed on march 24th and has since rallied and taken out the march and january highs. IT WILL MAKE NEW HIGHS,as it already has in other currencies,but short term it is nearing overbought levels and there is too much bullishness developing

  23. no mention of manipulation, or China or India demand, just what do you suggest we invest in, inflated money supply that the world is trying o give back to us, or stocks in an inflated over priced destined to fall soon stock market manipulated again of course by the US fed.No mention of tungsten bars and the affect that will have on price. No mention about the peak of gold production which occured in the past couple of years. Do you really beleive what youve written here? If you want to get rid of your gold Ill buy it cheap right now, let me know.

  24. first quarter earnings will be released out soon on major companies... this will propel the markets higher.............

  25. gold as good as seashells ? hahahahah look at what is stored in fort knox also what are china india etc buying and storing right now ? GOLD ! NOT SEASHELLS ! LOL !

  26. look for gold,silver,energy,metal and mining stocks to rally along with this market to end of may beginning of june maybe longer

  27. boom... we're over 11000 now ... with the market going up, gold will go up also...watch and see...

  28. and does it really matter if gold doesnt hit a new high this year... well ..... not really .... since most people own gold stocks in their portfolio that trade gold .not the physical metal.... THESE are the kind of equities that will soar to about end of may beginning of june perhaps longer into june ...at least we will see gold stocks and the market soar for at least to end of may... regardless if gold makes a new high or not..as long as we stay over 1000 an ounce ... gold is strong....look for a sell off in gold stocks the end beginning of june,perhaps couple of weeks into june..... and yes i do see the dow going over 11000 and a new rally beginning very short term

  29. basic " cup and handle " chart on gold -that shows near term breakout that is and will continue for gold to about the end of may... pretty basic chart reading if that

  30. gold bugs ultimate goal ? to make money from gold stocks and to sell their gold at a higher price than what they paid for it ! to protect from civilization crash? HARDLY ! WHEN big countries like china and india start buying huge amounts of gold because they know the worlds debt makes their dollars worth less they buy GOLD! just like the gold we in the good old usa have gold in our fort knox ! the ULTIMATE INSURANCE POLICY IN CASE THE DOLLAR DEFAULTS !

  31. hhahahah gold up another 10.20 cents today....and dow breaks 11000 adam will be eating his words before the year is over-- BET !

  32. Adam,

    Ref. Daily chart for XAUUSD and your Trade Triangle Technology

    The title of your piece is "Why gold will not make new highs or lows this year". I do not wish to be impolite but XAU HAS BEEN MAKING NEW HIGHS THIS YEAR ... Have a look at XAUEUR for example.

    Herein is the dilema. XAU, unlike Dow stocks, is traded worldwide and against all currencies. Yes, the USD is considered a reserve currency, but it does not change the fact that XAU is bought and sold world wide. In my view, Gold is woldwide money (unlike Dow stocks). I can convert it to a currency of my choice just about anywhere in the world. Could that be a limitation of the Trade Triangle TA Tool?

    Getting back to XAUUSD ...

    Looking at the "energy field" from Dec. 9 through to today:

    Isn't it possible that we had, once again a reverse H&S field just as the last one, albeit in a shorter time? S @ 12/22/09 ish and 3/25/10 ish with H @ 2/5/10 ish. With the neckline at 1145ish ?

    Is it possible we are in a spring rally that has broken the neckline? It will then trade higher but with a correction to the neckline? Therein the trade?

    Could it be that because Gold is making all time new highs against other currencies that this time, the energy field may not 15-18 months long for the XAUUSD trade?

    I ask myself this ... If I was a European holding EUROS or British Pounds, and I was looking at the PIIGS (sorry, no disrespect) situation, where would I put my money? Doesn't XAUEUR, XAUJPY, XAUHKD have an influence on the TA analysis?

    Just some honest questions.

    1. Andriyko,

      Thank you for your feedback and your detailed comments and questions.

      Perhaps what I should have explained in more detail is that I did not think that gold was going to make new highs this year, meaning over the all-time high that was set in December of $1226 in US dollars.

      At the moment the major trend is positive for gold. The market for the past several years has a history of moving sideways and creating large energy fields. I believe that is what is taking place right now. I expect gold to make new highs only not this year.

      Short-term traders took profits today however that does not mean you should be short this market at this time.

      All the best,
      Adam

  33. was in january 1980 that gold initially breached 800 and any well studied student of history can tell YOu that for 6000 years of monetary history on earth there has only ever been 2 things that have been considered MONEY ... (hint they were neither SEA SHELLS nor PAPER)
    You got it silver and gold! in fact in 53 languages on earth the same word that is used for MONEY is also used for silver 😉 every single FIAT currency that ever rose upon earth and tried to enslave it's Citizens through MIND CONTROL always reached 0 value in the end and in My humble opinion that is where We are now!
    get Yours quick while You still can!
    p.s. Adam ...it would seem the only way You will publish Our comments is if We threaten You to do so by stating the obvious fact as Mell did above....

  34. Adam,I know you follow gold closely with its cycles. When I look at silver I can see it has very similar cycles on weekly 5y chart to gold. It had its peaks in prices around the same time.
    With exception of 2009. If gold has reached its peak already, silver has not gone higher than 2 years ago. Do you think there is still way to go higher for silver soon?

  35. I guess since you won't print my comment that solidifies your position as a mouthpiece for the NWO Bullion Banks Cabal

  36. hahahaha look at gold today ... by the 9 th of april gold will really take off watch and see

    1. Joe,
      Great call. Gold is about to Break out and I mean A MAJOR BREAK OUT!

      Thanks for you advice!

  37. I well remember when gold was going up to 800+ in 1978. I remember because I got caught up in the frenzy myself. The price was climbing faster than at any time since, even in the recent rise to 1226.35. It was limit up day after day. The bugs were saying "this is it... fiat is finished." Everybody knows what happened. By 1982 the price was down to the $300 level. It then rose to $500+ and advocates were again saying this is it, buy gold and double, even quintuple your money because Armageddon is coming. If you did, of course, you had to wait nearly 20 years to break even on the price, not counting the cost of keeping your hoard in a safety deposit box.

    Relying on gold as the ultimate store of value is no different than relying on seashells. Gold bugs say fiat currency has no intrinsic value and they're right, but neither does seashells or gold. Gold is worth exactly what somebody - or a lot of somebodies - are willing to exchange for it. True worth, like beauty, exists only in the eye of the beholder.

    The gold bug's ultimate goal is to protect themselves and their loved ones when civilization collapses. They actually want everything to go smash, so they can be right all along.

    It's a long way from trading the markets for fun and profit.

  38. Adam, with the gold sentiment sinking down to levels of the Jaunuary low and with bullishness and commercials shorts against the dollar at extremes, we now the confluence necessary to squeeze the shorts and make new highs. Believing in gold is like believing in Jesus, it comes by revelation and you either see it or you don't.

    Gold continues to be parabolic after 9 STRAIGHT yearly rises, and yet there is still no inkling of speculation. Americans are still selling their grams to the gold dealers. Talk about an odd-lot indicator.

  39. Adam,

    I wonder whether any other subject sparks such passionate comments as the Gold Market.

    I have been following MarketClub and your videos for some time. I respect your courage and intiative to post these videos. I enjoy watching them. Keep them coming !!

    In the '70s and early '80s Gold seemed to follow Technical tools quite well. I successfully traded PMs at the time based on those tools. In the last number of years however, short term trading Gold has been very challenging. I have been searching for a tool, possibly the trade triangle method. But in the case of XAUUSD I haven't been convinced of any TA method.

    I recollect clearly, a call, based on an inverted H&S "energy field" that the 950-1000ish break out should take the price to 1300-1350. That did not happen. There have been a number of other calls that failed to materialize. Most recently, a call based on the a cyclic analysis for a mini-cycle low (buying opportunity) March 18ish. No such real low transpired with a sufficient spread in the trading range to make it profitable.

    An honest question here: As far as XAU is concerned, maybe Jim Rogers, Jim Sinclair, Marc Farber et al. are right. Put aside the trading, and at this time, accummulate gold on prices at or below 1100 ? For, the "specialists" in the Bullion Banks (who use and see TA signals as well as anyone and have tools probably more sophisticated that I can imagine) will whipsaw the longs and shorts as they please. So maybe we should just buy and hold and wait for the inevitable fundamental "Black Swan" that their TA trading algorithms do not account for. (?)

    Ultimately, isn't it immaterial whether its a 15-17 month energy field or a 1 month energy field? Buy Gold at a price where technical and fundamental tools support the decision and then HOLD with a view to sell at a time when the tools support that decision. I remain unconvinced that any TA tool will out trade the Bullion Banks. For all I know, they may have already set up a scenerio to profit by the 15 month "energy field" expectation !

    I prefer the video's and commentary that stick to the "trade triangle" evidence. I can then be in a better position to evaluate this TA tool for the Gold Market. As cited above, other strategies have demonstated little success.

    Cheers,

    1. Andriko,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      The market is made up of many different personalities and traders. The style we advocate is trading as opposed to buy and hold.

      We cannot please or be right on every single post. The fact is the gold market moved from 1,000 to 1,226 a 22% move based on the energy field we outlined. We also exited this position at $1,175 for a nice profit. The market is now very choppy and I expect that to continue for awhile.

      All the best,
      Adam

    2. Hi Andriyko,

      Thanks for your comments as you make me feel better.

      You are right on; I also came to the same conclusions last year.

      Like you, I have lots of respect for Adam and his courage to keep blogging on Gold. May be he likes steering the pot!??

      His monthly triangles for PM and his cycle analysis are correct as they detect the longer cycles of the manipulation by the bullion banks.

      I was a skeptic until recently; but with the confirmations that came out at the last CFTC meeting on PM metal positions limits (see my earlier post), I understand the game a lot better now.

      This will not change my strategy; in fact the recent developments confirm it. I have now a target of 1/3 of my portfolio in PM bullions which is for the long term and I will keep on accumulating when XAU goes below $1100. I have been long in Canada for a year WITHOUT any stops and only hedged the US dollar. I have been gunned down too many times!

      I will exit the position 7-10 years from now if God allows when the PM bull market runs out.

      Good luck & Take care

      Claude

  40. first started navigating the g & s markets in '79, that was during the last stage3(J Q Public jumping in) of that metal bull... today We are still in the first maybe second inning of an extra inning stage 2(institutions & SOVERIGNS)... will be at least 5-10 yrs b4 We get to the blow off stage3 of this bull and sounds like Mell agrees with Me as most here that get heard are bearish hmm 400% gain in less than 10 yrs for the best performing asset class in the world bar none.. yupWe got a long way to run yet on this bull...
    buy silver now b4 it's too late...

    p.s. Adam deletion of this post will finally confirm 4 Me the absolute collusion that I have long suspected Your organization is in with the CABAL... TY

  41. first started navigating the g & s markets in '79 and they both blew off to an ultimate high but that was when joe and Jane Public climbed on board which was the final act and well into stage 3 of that metal bull market... the one we're in now is still in the first or second inning of stage 2 (when institutions and SOVERIGNS climb on board) what is proving to Me to be an extra inning stage 2 ... We are probably 5-10 years away at least from stage 3 in this bull and the proof of that is the last 2 posters comments Who think gold is a bad investment(up 400%+ over last 10 yrs)...

  42. I'm Sorry are you guys living on a remote Island? Gold not make new highs? Have you read or heard about an organisation by the name of "CFTC"?

    Are you just in need of stopping your Prozac. Your in denial.

    You know its easy throw out your Obama Care "meds".

    I'm gonna come back and Laugh so hard in your face all the way to the Bullion Banks when they collapse from having to buy up the shorts that are gonna have to be bought in th market.!!!

  43. Been riding a gold position (EGO) with covered calls. Who cares if gold is a bad investment? I'm a trader. If gold is range bound then this is a great trading vehicle for covered calls and a whole host of option and swing trading plays.

  44. I laugh when i see someone write the gold market is manipulated.Of course its manipulated,the market makers make money from the punters,speculators,gamblers or the little guy who can still afford to buy gold at 1100,would you be a buyer at 3000,5000,10000,probably less likely.The higher the price of anything the less business you have,and financials like the local grocer wants to keep the prices affordable so the speculators can be fleeced.Who will be buying your gold when it gets to 10000 oz,you will be lined up with every other gold bug,then guess what.NO more 10000 gold.Make your money from trading and not hoping.You should be glad that its affordable.

  45. "Here is the dirty little secret about the gold market. It can be a horrible investment and here's why"

    I get so tired of hearing this argument about gold. This argument can be made about many investments, not just gold. If you invested in the DOW in 1929 it would have taken 25 years before you broke even in nominal terms. If you invested in the Nikkei in 1989, you've been waiting 20 years and counting to break even. If you invested in the NASDAQ in 2000, it's 10 years and counting. If you bought a home in 2006, it might be another 20 years before you recoup the equity you have lost. Etc, etc.

    So, the lesson as always: Don't chase price and by at the peak.

    1. Dan,

      Thanks for showing some great examples.

      Timing in life and the markets is everything.

      All the best,
      Adam

  46. The gold price will explode very soon. Check out the interview with CFTC whistleblower Andrew Maguire and GATA board member Adrian Douglas on King World News's website.

  47. Hello Adam. As the market can change from minute to minute so can GOLD. This video is from Sept 15, 2009 and is really no good to the consumer. But thanks anyway. I prefer current information.

    1. Michelle,

      Thanks for your feedback.

      I believe that the video until proven otherwise will stand the test of time.

      All the best,

      Adam

  48. There was no mention of the cftc hearings this month and the possible extreme implications and probable extreme blow back the result of the testimony of the whistle blowers at the hearings. I think tech analysis is useless when both silver and gold are manipulated, tech analysis is fine when business is being handled honestly but does anyone beleive crimex is honest? That was once and for all disproved in the cftc hearings. Theres no mention of the possible big blow back of the tungsten bar scandal either, this news has disapeared from metals news altogether, so how can one fore cast price without taking manipulation -supply availability for delivery for both metals into consideration? You talk about the psychological part of metals then the psychology of paper owners after reading the cftc hearings having the fear they may not have the metal they think they have all want delivery, multiply this by many many then you get implication of the psychological side of fear of getting cheated out of ones metal and wanting to get while one can get.This in itself could cause panic demand delivery which could be the straw that broke and the price increases would be unbeleivable. The powers that be have demonstrated they are not going to come clean when evidence is openly against them. Price increases will not come gradually but rapidly with fear maybe even panic and like the above says stacks of fiat paper will not buy any metals any where. You left out a lot.

  49. Investors should note that it is said in the Scriptures that there is a time coming when people will "throw their gold and silver into the streets for it will be worthless". So, in that, God is sending a message of great tribulation to hit planet earth (not just America) and the socialist society being built upon each day will have destroyed capitalism as we know it and likely transformed a global economy into a cashless society. This is supported by the "mark of the beast" where all people will be required to take this mark (666) in this body (either under the skin on the right hand or in the forehead; and without that Satanic mark you will not be able to "buy or sell". Sincere Christians understand this, but do you?

  50. I do agree it's the market that appears on our P/L. However we should continue to have open minds to such facts as located here
    https://marketforceanalysis.com/index_assets/CFTC%20HEARING%20ON%20METALS%20MARKETS.pdf

    I tend to agee with Simon on the smaller version inverse head and shoulders pattern or possibly a triangle. I believe the dollars pullback is probably the key needed for positive movement for gold.

    Thanks Adam for your videos and hard work developing the triangles and the two firms. I'll be watching for more....

  51. On a point of clarification: Adam, would you consider that the beginning of the move to a new high actually began in Sept/08 rather than Oct and that the move to 1220 began in July/09?

    Thank you.

    1. Shane I have been following the interviews on Kingworld News and have been fascinated by these and it also goes to prove the huge volitility in the spot market now with $25-$40 moves in a single day now common. And why as soon as I have snoozed i have been smashed. FX gold can only really be traded on a daily basis now as so volitile which is not my style but I am off to the Perth Mint right now to buy physical gold to sit on. There are so many smart people out there bullish gold I think it's time i took action.
      I nearly died when I went to buy a new wedding band (lost the original oop's) for myself the other day, outcome still ringless.
      Great Interview.
      Galvo

  53. If gold is going nowhere for a year and confined to a trading range (and not too big of a one at that), what does this have to say for the Perfect Portfolio? Should something else replace it? Seems like the monthly triangles would be a bit too late in calling tops and bottoms by the time it missed the 10% on either end. Might the same be said for USO?

  54. seems to Me that the reality is that gold has made a new all time high already this year in EUROS, YEN, CHF and late last year in the CAD and US and early last yr in the AUD, suppose it is not significant enough yet for You Adam but imagine how much it will explode upwards when this manipulation finally ends? being up north of 400% over the last 10 years straight(17%/yr) has kept Me certainly happy being I am just like CABALBuster and 100% in physical! in fact I'll take it one step further and say there may come a day when the paper price on the CRIMEX actually goes down while the physical price of bullion flies to the moon! in fact We may already see the beggings of this right now as NY futures are now in backwardization for gold and silver! why would the spot month trade more then a future month? because of course there is underlying doubt in the market that metal will not get delivered...

  55. Adam, I would like to ask you what is the point of your efforts? Is your end game to amass wealth in dollars through trading the trends, and if so, how do you propose to hedge against what many perceive as an inevitable erosion and devaluation of not only the dollar but fiat currency in general?

    At some point there will be a movement toward fundamentals, wherein vital commodities take precedence over paper, and so my interest is in obtaining something of real value with my paper before all the forces of massive debt and international economic instability bring about, if not a collapse, then certainly a period of monetary chaos, that will hasten the already progressing erosion of the dollar and other currencies. Need one mention in support of this scenario the trillions in debt our wise leaders have contrived to foist on us?

    Trading into the currencies of commodity rich nations may be wise, but eventually my guess is that there will be an overwhelming demand for the monetary metals as a safe haven, and there won't be enough to go around. The manipulators will be overwhelmed (JPM, etc.) and the dollar will take a dive against the metals.

    Of course, no one can predict the future, and this may never happen, since one could argue that the idea of the value of precious metals is only given its reality by those who hold and believe this idea, which is also true of nearly anything you can name. My point is, I think we are on a slippery slope if we are trying only to amass wealth in dollars or other fiat currencies, and we need to find a proper store of wealth to build a solid foundation on.

    What, in your opinion, would this foundation be?

  56. Is the reality that gold has made a new all time high in EUROS, CHF, YEN (2010) and US, CAD, AUD (2009) not considered a significant amount Adam? Of course Your right cause when We finally see the CARTEL on THEIR deathbed then We will finally see the significant moves talked about by You I guess... Personally I consider the reality that gold has appreciated 10 years straight well north of 400% (average 17% /yr). ... what other asset class on the planet can match those returns? I wonder how high g & s would have blown up to by now if there was no illegal manipulations going on hmmm..... soon get ready but I don't recomend trading, buy physical and hold on like Your life depends on it cause it's going to iMho ....You'll see....
    :Gare:

  57. Adam, i don't understand. Trade Triangles is essentially an automated system. Why take a stand on 'no new highs for Gold' using a few years worth of observations? Patterns are recognizable until they are not.

    Here's an example of how patterns can and will change. Today the US Dollar index is trading at 81.30. On June 8th 2009 the US dollar index was trading at 81.20. The difference is that Gold is trading at 1105 today and was trading at 946 on June 8th.

    (If you chose to analyze Gold using a 6 year period versus a 3.5 year period, your conclusions would be different.)

    From a marketing perspective, i hesitate when i see you take a stand on NO new highs for Gold this year when it's not necessary to do so.

    Lastly, if you haven't yet, pay attention to the testimony presented before a CFTC commission last Thursday. There is no question that Gold and Silver have been subjected to manipulation. To ignore this aspect to 'Price Discovery' it to ignore the possibility that a CFTC move towards transparency and position limits may change the playing field, altering the time it takes for an energy field to mature.

    gl

  59. David,

    Thank you for your feedback.

    Agree or disagree with Cabalbuster is not the point we are making here. The reality is gold has not gone up a significant amount in other currencies.

    The market is what we trade. Despite all the conspiracy theories which always crop up, it it still the market and that is what appears on a traders P/L statement.

    We can agree to disagree, there is nothing wrong or dishonest about that.

    All the best,
    Adam

    1. Tried to post this comment but it did not work:

      "Hi Adam,

      I did not agree with you the last time, but now I do.

      Your cycles are explained by the fact that the silver and gold markets are manipulated.

      Here is the beginning of the proofs which are coming out since the 25 March CFTC hearing on metal position limits:

      http://www.gata.org/node/8466

      And a most recent interview:

      http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/3/30_Andrew_Maguire_%26_Adrian_Douglass.html

      And finally a la James Bond:

      http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/jpmorgan_chase_story_in_uk_DsMN4PnXFoQG5KdevIsQ7N#ixzz0jZHvERAe

      Unbelievable but true!"

      Take care
      Claude

  60. I have to agree with Cabalbuster's basic point concerning manipulation. It has been going on for a very long time and last weekend's revelations regarding the events of February 3-5 of this year are just the latest glaring example. Any discussion of gold and silver prices without a discussion of what is being deliberately and consistently done by certain large players who have a larger agenda amounts to window-dressing, smoke-and-mirrors, etc, call-it-what-you-will. So please, let's at least have honest and comprehensive discussions and honest reporting whatever your trading or economic philosophy might be.

    1. I have to agree with Cabal also, but my point is that even if we know the game is rigged, the game can still be played for a profit. I get input from several different sources. Their not 100% right all the time, but what is? Point being, Adams information is very good and one of the key pieces to my puzzle. I get a very broad scope or picture and so far the timing has been good. I say manipulate away!!

  61. I became interested in gold during the mid-seventies as an insurance to protect myself against catastrophic events unkown to me. as inflation pushed values higher, I have maintained a percentage of assests in metals and have been content to keep that level in spite of prices. good strategy?? works for me

  63. Silver(s) is the most manipulated market on the planet Eric and is the CABAL'S achilese heal iMho...
    What I want more than anything else is for traders to wake up out of Their MIND CONTROLLED FIAT dream and protect ThemSelves by owning physical silver that only They can put Their finger prints on.... not much time left Me thinks for this entire dreamlike state THEY have most People in... problem is when everyOne wakes up at once no physical silver will be had for any amount of FIAT... do Your Own due diligence the truth is out there if You can find it? Look into last weeks CFTC hearings into metals position limits for starters, listen to what the few Who testified tthat weren't CABAL shills....
    :Gare:

  64. For gold to make a new low it would have to go below zero. So maybe you are right about no new low. But no new high this whole year? You think it will only trade between 1226.37 and 1050.00 all year? Do you really mean this? Are you sure? I am surprised that you perceive $176.37 as being a "broad range."

  65. Adam until you are willing to publicly acknowledge the existance of a gold CARTEL that is suppressing the price, in order to make THEIR FIAT CURRENCY appear to be worth more than the worthless piece of PAPER it is, You are one of THEM helping to suppress the price of g&s and misleading Traders into believing technical analysis is criminal iMho because it does not work in a manipulated market...
    certainly I don't expect You to let this comment remain standing for long and will serve as further proof to Me of the complicancy of all financial comentators into misleading the public...
    all in with physical... liftoff is right around the corner iMho
    THEIR time is up and Our time is now!
    :Gare: ...a silver bug and proud of it 🙂

    1. And silver isn`t manipulated? Get real! I make money when it goes up or down and Adams site helps alot. How much more do you want?

      1. Heck, by now we should all know that the markets are minipulated by politics, corporate decision-makers, foreign pressure (e.g. China, Greece), New World Order, et al. Perhaps what I've learned is not since much at all into long-term holds but view the market daily for the "energy fields" and take advantage to buy at a point were it looks like a specific stock (low price) is making a upward swing then sell when it appears to have reached its start to point down again. This may happen in the same day or in a week... it's all guess work, but you'd think leveraging technology and historicals it would get a bit easier.

  66. I looks to me like a small energy field is forming right now. It is an inverted head and shoulders that looks like a mini version of the one that took gold up to $1226. Adam is probably right in his timing and commentary on this. However I have a niggle that since gold did not reach it's "proper" target of $1300 to $1350 on the last break out a mini break out could see gold reach closer to those targets before falling back or not as the case may be.

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