50 thoughts on “Will the euro bailout work?

  1. The problem is simple. Not enough money is moving to allow taxes on spending to repay debt. The reason not enough money is moving is simple.
    The terrorist banks that caused this problem are still around. Liquidation of these banks would allow the good ones to get back to basics, liquidate the forclosures at fair current market prices and let the lower middle class, the only class with credit now, buy homes, purchase items to fix them up, get money moving again and get us out of this hole so we can repay debt. Citi Corp & Bank of America have to go!
    There will be no recover in the US, the World or anywhere until they're liquidated!!!

  2. As I have said for 2 years. The economic recovery will never happen until several large banks such as Citi Corp and Bank of America are liquidated PERIOD!!! We didn't reward the terrorists that blew up the trade towers and now we are rewarding companies made up of the worst thieves on the planet for causing 10x more damage and deaths by suicide than died in 911. Are we insane? Money will never get moving again to any degree until the foreclosures are cleaned up. The banks don't lend and they don't want to sell their foreclosures cheap. Liquidation will punish the thieves letting the other banks know we mean business. Then the lower middle class, the only class with any credit left, will have the opportunity to buy houses cheap, clean up the forclosures, get money moving again by purchasing products to fix up their new homes and stabilize housing prices once and for all. We are dreaming if we think we can get out of this by letting crooks do it for us. My rear end is sore. Time to punish those that caused this horrible crime. Why should workers have to take pay cuts so the banks can live high on the hog? Take those bastards out!!! We exterminated the terrorists that caused 911 and we need to exterminate the banks that caused these problems. They don't care and never will. They are like kids reaching into the cookie jar. No matter how many times you tell them not to go there they just don't listen. Time to permanently close the cookie jar, slam it down on their hands and take them off if necessary.
    The banks have ended middle American life as we knew it when we grew up and it will never come back until these lying cheating thieving no good
    SCUM are EXTERMINATED from the market.

  3. Will the Euro Bailout Work?
    Answer:
    The Euro bailout is the same as putting lipstick on the PIIGS.
    It will make the PIIGS temporarily look more attractive but won't solve the long term problem of deficit spending. Bigger loans and more credit only encourages more reckless spending unless austerity measures are forced upon the borrowers (primarily in this case the governments). That means cutting off the future allowances to the big debtor governments. The problem is twofold: whose feet will be held to the fire and when can they possibly unwind future borrowing? In order to unwind future borrowing there has to be both a unspent surplus that exceeds the cost of debt service and payments that reduce the debt service. In other words the debt has to be self-liquidating just like a mortgage or any other loan that has a final payment due date. But few governments have had any success in either acquiring surplus accounts (via either taxation or reduced spending or both) or accomplishing the even harder part of paying down the debt to zero. Once governments get the habit of producing and increasing debt, it is like an addiction that can't be stopped. So that leaves only one way to control the debt and that is by repudiation through devaluation. This is precisely what the U.S.A. has been doing since 1913 with the fiat dollar devalued from a purchasing power of one twentieth of an ounce of gold to one twelve-hundredth of an ounce of gold (a loss of over 98% of gold's equivalent purchasing power).

  4. Bail outs work if endogenous parameters are optimized. An exogenous injection is temporary stabilizer. It tends to cool down the economic temperatures in the short run. Therefore the EU should attach serious expectations from members in terms of structural adjustments and policy mechanism.

    The fall of the EU and the Euro will send a serious signal to other infant regional integrations i.e the East African Community(EAC) which is in critical stage in ratifying some agreements that are to graduate the community to common market in anticipation to later maturity to forming a union.

  5. Forget Carroll Quigley

    George Orwell: 1984 + 30 years. Let's hope not.

    As far as the prediction that Gold will be in a trading range for the rest of 2010: Traders know that circumstances change and you had better prepared to dance ... be nimble and go with the flow. Fact is, the triangles (market club's algorithms) are sound and so is the underlying philosophy: go with the trend, diversify, trade with stops. Take losses quickly, let the profits ride. KISS.

    Bravo Adam.

  6. SO MANY NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON THIS REPORT. WOW
    MANY PEOPLE REVEL IN BEING NEGATIVE ON EVERYTHING.
    OF COURSE THIS RESCUE PACKAGE TO STABILIZE THE DEBT
    CRISIS IS AN ABSOLUTE REQUIREMENT AND NECESSARY NOW.
    THE FINANCIAL EXPERTS OF EUROPE ARE SMARTER THAN
    MOST PEOPLE WHO DISLIKE EVERY WISE BOLD ACTION
    AND COMMENT ON THIS PAGE TO SHOW HOW HATEFUL THEY ARE

    1. Hey Rudy...Hateful? Does your argumentum ad hominem display the weakness of your position, while setting aside or ignoring a mountain of both hard and circumstantial evidence that this financial and economic quagmire is part of something larger and well planned for several decades?

      Does anyone now feel the hot breath of Carroll Quigley's New World Order (Tradegy and Hope, 1966)on their back?

      Just asking...

  7. The Greek debt thing is rediculous over hyped
    nonsense being pushed by the media for distraction purposes.The debt of JP Morgan is greater than Portugal,Italy,Ireland,Greece and spain's total combined debt, and thats just one of many deeply in dept American company's.
    The Euro was very high and due a fall, just as the USA dollar is now high and due to fall.

    In defence of Adam no one could have anticipated the fear generated by the media causing the new high in gold and in my opinion gold is overpriced at the moment and due a heavy fall.

  8. Greece should be put back on the Dracma until they get their act together and stop spending more than they earn. Gee what a concept! The pampered rioters should be arrested for destroying public property and made to work for the firt time in their lives. This is what happens when you deal with spoiled children. They have a hissy fit when you tell them they have to face reality.

    Europe needs to become more capitalistic and end the welfare state. We will be stupid to follow in Europe's footsteps. We need to stop the march to socialism here, take responsibility, cut expenses and entitlements, and cut taxes which have stimulated the economy every time they did it.

    Some will say Bush lowered taxes and look at what happened. What happened, happened in spite of lower taxes, not because of them. Congress allowed unqualified people to get mortgages they couldn't afford on stated income and with interest only loans. Ridiculous! It was the house of cards that the Democrates built that crashed the economy with the media bad mouthing the economy all the way until Obama's election. Bush was an idiot, but he didn't cause the mess.

    Anyway, hopefully Europe will see this as a wakeup call and should change their ways. But I don't think they will.

    1. Get your head out of the sand.

      Taxes on average are the lowest they have been in 50 years! Where has it gotten us? Supply side economics are a failure... The Bush tax cuts were nothing more than a loan, a gimmick to buy votes...

      This country has been through worse than today! Look at the depression did we not recover? The safety nets set up during this era, probably stopped this situation from getting worse. The Law of the Jungle, belongs in the Jungle. This is Civilization, a Union... Without which we would have nothing but chaos.

      Funny, How did we reach the pinnacle of the world with ALL THOSE "ENTITLEMENTS"?

      Our problem is more of a demographic one, the population is aging. The Boomers are past their peak spending years. They are starting to save for retirement or retiring... We CANNOT escape this. The last time we faced the same demographic situation was in 1928 when another large generation had already peaked in spending. Japan has already experienced this in the 1990's.

      Anything else is a just a Red Herring...

      Further more the crisis during the Carter administration was due to the Boomers Hitting the Job Market in the 70's.

      We are facing the end of 5 cycles almost simultaneously, a Spending cycle, a Technology cycle, a Commodity cycle, a Housing and a demographic one. We'll survive, and in the end there will be more entitlements not less, and we will see deflation not inflation. Taxes will go up. Weak companies will die. Assets will depreciate and debts will just disappear... In the end the general population will once again be able to afford to live on what they make... That's what happens. There is no other way. You can fight it or accept it and make money by understanding it...

      The Echo Boomers, the children of the Baby Boomers will soon pick up the slack around 2017, though they are a smaller generation...

      And in closing: Demark has a surplus and they are rated the Happiest country by polls in the west... We don't seem so happy and our taxes and entitlements are much, much lower.

      "Happy Days" like the 50's will return? After some pain?

  9. Let's face it. Like it or not, the world have to help Greece, otherwise greater consequences like the Euro will weakend further, billions or trillions of the euro stock market will be wipe off within months.
    On the other hand Greece had to take the bitter medicine just like USA face the same problem. Look at USA now, they have recover very fast and the stock market now is much healthier than China stocks.

  10. This bale out will do little to help short term, and it will just add fuel to the disaster that is ahead for the EU, and the US. The various nations will have difficulty instituting the budgetary restraints necessary and all of this will lead (eventually) to severe (hyper?)inflation. Buy gold.

  11. The bernanki bailout sure worked a treat. Why shouldn't this one. More money chasing assets equals higher prices...that is until the piper insists on being paid. But he's quite a patent chap.

  12. WE ALL KNOW WHAT HAPPENS TO GOLD WHEN THE USA DOLLAR IS STRONG RIGHT ? IT HITS A NEW HIGH LIKE IT DID TODAY AND MADE ADAM WRONG ABOUT GOLD NOT BEING ABLE TO HIT A NEW HIGH THIS YEAR ! HAHAHAHAHAHA LOL

    1. Josie,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      In my last post I said that nothing elicits more emotion and passion than the subject of gold. How true that is today.

      I have to go back and look at some of the videos which I've included for you to see to say that I was never long term bearish on gold. I'm not sure where that came from.

      In fact if you look at our Trade Triangle technology in our monthly trade triangles you can clearly see that we've been advocating a long position in gold since February 11, 2009 from $929.50, that's almost $300 ago!!

      Take a look at these videos and you'll see what I was saying and when I was saying it.

      I have been a trader for many years and one thing I do know is that you don't stick with losing positions. So let's move on. I want the markets to have big moves thats when you make a lot of money it's that simple.

      So let's all enjoy the upside movement in gold and may continue.

      Here is a list of all the videos I've made for the past several months.

      Enjoy,

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold510/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold420/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold412/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold329/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold313/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold38/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/5reasons/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold211/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold1216/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold1118/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/spotgold1112/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold1110/

      All the best,
      Adam

  13. The change needed is fundamental to a philosophy of sacrifice and hard work as necessary. Not looking at the E.C. as a cash cow to easy street. That annoys the hell out of the Germans who keep there two feet on the ground and that is why they stay the nucleus of the market. Somtimes mistaken as bullies, not that they won't.

  14. THE IDEA ON PAPER LOOKS OK ,REALITY IS A DIFFERENT THING ,SPAIN AND OTHER COUNTRIES ARE WAITING IN THE WINGS TO CLAIM THEIRS.GB DID WELL TO STAY OUT OF THE EURO .SO EUROPE IS OUT OF IT WITH BRITON ,I THOUGHT THAT THE PEOPLE IN CHARGE OF THINKING EURO FOR ALL, ARE JUST A POOR EXCUSE FOR ACADEMICS .IN FACT THESE PEOPLE ARE ON BIG PAY FOR MAKING MISTAKES .THE ONLY WAY FORWARD WHEN POORER NATIONS JOIN EUROPE IS TO HAVE A SPECIAL EURO CURRENCY FOR THEIR OWN COUNTRY THAT CAN HAVE A VALUATION ON LINE WITH THEIR PRESENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ,IE, TWO EURO`S TO THE MAIN EURO AND HAVE THIS CURRENCY REVALUED ON A ANNUAL BASIS UNTIL THE ECONMIC CONDITIONS IN THEIR COUNTRY WARRENTS EQUAL STATUS THEN THEN COULD DISCARD THE THEIR EURO AND TAKE UP THE MAIN EURO .ON A EQUAL TERMS . IS THIS A WISH LIST MAYBE ,

  15. Does anyone have a suggestion as to what the first move for tomorrow should be? I'm thinking of selling all my Akamai shares. Good or bad move?? What do you think the market outlook for tomorrow is??

  16. This bailout plan is a joke, there are no quick fixes and America has its own problems without exacerbating the problem.
    That money will get used on the stock market in the same way they used 2009 bailout money to prop up Wall St, and then expect the hard working tax payer to pay more.

  17. The US FED gave $67B to the slush fund. Does anyone think tat there will be any funds available for the top 8 defaulting CANI NANO states when they face bankruptcy? Ca, Az, Nv, Il, NY, Ak, NJ Or

  18. I'm from the old school,, I am one of the few people in the World that,
    Doesn't have A debt...You have to pay your bills....You can-not Borrow your self rich.....

  19. You don't fix overspoending with more debt. The bears will eat them alive...probably sooner than down the road.

  20. Hi Adam,

    Today gold reached the previous high and mooved higher!- which is different then your prediction were in one of your videos. Your prediction was gold will go down a bit to the previous month's bottom and then go up.I know by triangles we still have trend up, but WHY YOU NEVER POST VIDEO SAYING OOPS, MY PREDICTION WAS WRONG, SORRY!!! AH?

    1. Oksy,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      In my last post I said that nothing elicits more emotion and passion than the subject of gold. How true that is today.

      I have to go back and look at some of the videos which I've included for you to see to say that I was never long term bearish on gold. I'm not sure where that came from.

      In fact if you look at our Trade Triangle technology in our monthly trade triangles you can clearly see that we've been advocating a long position in gold since February 11, 2009 from $929.50, that's almost $300 ago!!

      Take a look at these videos and you'll see what I was saying and when I was saying it.

      I have been a trader for many years and one thing I do know is that you don't stick with losing positions.

      So let's all enjoy the upside movement in gold and may continue.

      Here is a list of all the videos I've made for the past several months.

      Enjoy,

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold510/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold420/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold412/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold329/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold313/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold38/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/5reasons/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold211/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold1216/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold1118/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/spotgold1112/

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold1110/

      All the best,
      Adam

  21. Have you noticed how the amount of "bailout" went from ~$40 billion two weeks ago to ~$150 billion Tuesday of last week and ended up being close to a trillion dollars ($955 billion) over the wekend? This is just plain reckless - and unfortuantely a part of it is our taxpayer dollars through the IMF, where we are the largest single contributor.

  22. I used to race cars. Improvements came from all the teams because they were trying to get faster. Imagine if a "superior" power decided the order of finish. Innovations would cease; the race would be fixed (essentially becoming a non-race) and the need to excel would be gone.
    Competition is built into our genes and healthy competition improves the breed.
    Shame on us if we allow some bastard to fix our race.

  23. So let me understand.The answer,globally, is to issue more IOU's to those who can't pay their own IOU's..Great solution..Bottom line the world can't generate enough revenues to service the amount of debt accumulated over the decades.In the beginning,we bailed out private companies, now we're bailing out countries.The crisis will continue unfortunately.

  24. With so much negative opinion on the euro, I think that it is almost time to go long the Euro for the next few months.
    Don't you people remember Nov 2009 when everybody was talking about the end of the US Dollar????

  25. What, Greece; other Europeans countries and also the USA go deep in debt by borrowing money, then get much more deeper in debt by borrowing tons of more money!! The ole' Ponzi scam lives on!!

  26. I've read everyone interesting comments and theories of why this is such a doom crisis. However, I don't look at it that way. I see there is 13 investors who have pulled there money out of the euro because of their beliefs. Plus, if you add the author of the article. That's 14 investors who have dumped their euro's. Creating a huge cheap supply. I think I like that ratio of 14 to 1. Me being the one who will take a small nibble at that supply. I may be wrong and the supply may grow, but I don't see a collapse. The euro economies are too intertwined for that.

    What I do see is that weaknesses in the currency have been brought to light and more importantly. The leaders are working to resolve them. They have shown the extent that they will go. Even post great amount of money to keep it together.

    I believe this cooperation is what should be the focused. I do not believe this will be the last communications. Hence, I do not foresee a collapse. Rather an opportunity to tip my toes in this sweet cheap supply. Keep an eye for any signs of refusal to cooperate by any country.

    1. I completely agree - the Euro is in decline due to the bad investments of the many - however the bailout and the confidence of the market will rule. The fall of the Euro will be short lived to return like a giant and will avenge itself in a short time.
      More to the strategy of what will happen with the USA greenback - and at what point will the Euro become the common currency--??

  27. Well it depends on your time line. It seems to me the better question would have been... when do you think the euro will be in parity with the dollar?? Ha Ha Yes the bail out worked... for a while... the question is how long?

  28. I do not believe all the negative BS-information spread around about the decline and end of the euro. Problems, sure they are there but so is the case with the US$ to a worst extend. How many trillions was the defecit again ... of the USA ...!? Does the defecit of Europe come anywhere close to the defecit of the USA ..... No ! Where did the problem start that tumbled the whole worlwide economy it sure was not Europe.
    Has the defecit problem in the USA been resolved or has it..... disappeared, the only correct answer is .... No ! Far from it !
    How many banks and other financial institutions actually went bankrupt in Europe compared to the USA....You all know the answer..... !!!
    After all of todays turmoil is over I am sure the Euro will stabelize and recover, it may take a while. Who is running the show anyway ...!
    Not Europe at this point in time but it certainly is'nt the USA either

  29. I see countries as enterprises that need to make a profit for their populace to survive and prosper. However, if they have negative trade balances and become fat and spoilt with socialist systems, then poverty creeps on in the still of the night. The West has become just this and allowed labour union demands to inctrease the labour input resulting in the uncompetitively priced manufactured goods. This has encouraged industries to resite where labour is cheaper and more productive. So now we have Walmart as the biggest employer in USA with 60% of its shelves stocked with American inspired goods made in China and paid for in pieces of paper with green ink on called USD. But the trade balance has beeen negative for years and the debt increases and increases whilst more and more pieces of green paper find their way around the world and become less and less a medium of exchange. The US and British auto industries are a typical example.
    Unless Greece, Spain, Portugal, Britain and the USA turn their economies around and start making a profit, they will decline as Rome did. They will never recover by throwing more debt on the fire. Thats like paying off your overdraft with your credit card and achieves nought.

  30. The difficulty with some conspiracy theories is they are not theories, so fasten your seatbelts.

    I can feel the hot breath of the New World Order and the bastards behind it on my back.

    In this case bastard is a charitable term it not being neccessary to name their father in whose service they clearly are...

  31. Goodness, it's the apocalypse! The sky is falling after lunch!

    My observation is that this crisis could sink the European Common Market, and that's a shame. Many factors came into play in the creation of the Market, but at it's heart it was an idealistic attempt to create a paradigm of cooperation, rather than competition, in relations between the member states. If the experiment fails, Europe may once again fracture into squabbling nation states, each trying to beggar the rest in order to secure its own perceived best interests, which provided the socio-economic and political backdrop for two world wars. Too bad. I wish the union well but I fear there are dark days ahead.

  32. The Greek and other nations (eastern Europe?) are in many ways still ill adapted to a modern industrial society. They, were bound to have difficulties once they were permitted to suck the European cornucopia. Obviously, Germany, where public opinion was against the Euro, made a serious error in their quest for leadership in Europe by not insisting on centralized economic and financial policies to accompanying the introduction of a common currency.

    But, as put, the question was incomplete. Of considerably greater interest is to enquire whether the dollar will reestablish itself. When we at present see the dollar gaining against many currencies in spite of enormous financial, social and even economic problems in the United States, we should look for the reasons. It isn't the dollar which is gaining, but the euro which is weakening. There was a reason for the dollar to decline from better than parity with the Euro to 1.50:1. Typically, Washington has been seriously discussing returning to its traditional protectionist policies in international trade.

  33. This is about changing the times and the laws. The working classes are being delivered via an incrementalism of policy change that maintains the status quo for the powers and principality of powers that be.

    "Give me control over a nations currency, and I care not who makes its laws.” Baron M.A. Rothschild

    There is no solution, for these crisis are their solution. The inevitable collapse that will crush sovereign nations and umbrella the sheeple into one centrally controlled authority is the endgame.

    Nick Rockefeller told Aaron Russo about the plan to microchip the population, ... which Rockefeller related to the filmmaker so frankly during their private conversations. ... how they want to ultimately microchip and control the entire population so as to control the money as well as their ability to participate in the economics of buying and selling so that if anyone gets in their way all they have to do is turn their chip off.

    And I saw thrones, and they sat upon them, and judgment was given unto them: and I saw the souls of them that were beheaded for the witness of Jesus, and for the word of God, and which had not worshipped the beast, neither his image, neither had received his mark upon their foreheads, or in their hands; and they lived and reigned with Christ a thousand years. Revelation 20:4

    We were told ahead of time what to expect. Nothing has changed except the inevitable is getting closer.

    1. This is absolutely true. Joe Biden said on an interview on a talk show a few months ago "Socilaism is for the rich, capitalism is for the poor". We must nationalize the Federal Reserve even at the cost of civil war and restore the rule of law to the constitution as its final say. We must embark on a deglobalization of the worlds economies as it destroys the sovereignity of nations, destroys pure capitalism and enslaves its peoples. This includes cleaning up our markets and the illegal or should be action of "frontlining" of institutions holding smaller players hostage. We have a lot of work ahead of us.

  34. As long as populist politicians run the show all fiat currencies are doomed, without exception. They should be viewed as a medium of exchange, not a store of value or savings. Right now the Euro is in trouble but I would not get complacent about the US$. Gold, "The barbarous relic” is the only money that has survived in the past and will survive in the future.

    1. I agree any tangible assets are better than paper. I hold physical gold and silver. Last week I went to the credit union and got $200.00 worth of nickles. They weighed 40 or 50 pounds, so I'm not sure how far I'll go on this, but they were worth more than $200.00 worth of paper when I bought them. They can't do anything but go up, and if you'll look, they are the only U.S. coin that hasn't been debased. They are talking about adding zinc to nickles like they did pennies, as we speak. Then people will immediately start hoarding them, myself included.

  35. this has already been done in japan in the 80s and look how far they have come. bailouts don't help matter is like put a band aid on a cancer patient.

  36. Eurozone is facing the same problem that the US has faced in the last several years. It is true all things must come to an end and with that said it is coming to an end and it must be faced ,fixed, challenged and critizied is all areas of past decesions that were made. The market will face difficulty challanges but will survive and get stronger aganinst the usd. TIME WILL TELL .

  37. Eurozone debt has become very publically scrutinized by traders and the world's media. The core issue here is the see-saw between the Euro and the Dollar, as contenders for global status of reserve currency. On the other side of the see-saw is the vast quantity of US Federal debt hidden deep within the budget reports under the category "householders". By comparison the Greeks are a country of only 10 million souls and their national debt is chump-change. The market may well continue to trend against the Euro on all the hype, but sooner or later both currencies will be seen to have structural problems of similar magnitude. My bet is we're roughly at the extreme of the pendulum swing and markets will turn against the dollar soon.

  38. I'm smelling 1 trillion of blood in the water coming from the wounded Euro fish and I think the currency sharks won't wait to eat. This is a currency crisis and the EU has just sealed their fate with this stupid solvency ploy. I heard nothing about currency intervention or funds to support that. Nothing in their package stops currency specs from running the currency market down hard on them.The bailout package super glues the living, the dead, and dying to the Euro. Euro was actually stronger so long as there was a chance that Greece and the other PIIGS might be expelled from the fold.

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