The S&P 500 is turning out to be a conundrum for many professionals and home traders alike. The conflicting information on good earnings, high unemployment, and other factors continue to batter the market. One moment the SP500 is heading for the stars and the next, it's heading to the cellar.
So what's a trader to do?
In my new video, I share with you some steps you can use to help improve your trading in the S&P 500 and other markets. The new video is approximately 3 minutes long and it will show you several key areas and levels that I am looking at.
As always our videos are free to watch and you do not have to register.
I would like to see your feedback on how you see the market, as so many traders are becoming frustrated with the lack of real follow-through in either direction. Please leave your comments on this blog.
Enjoy the video and all the best,
Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder MarketClub
Thank a lot!
Dear Ms Pierrette:
I know how very hard it is to see not only money but your hopes disappear. But when you have a winner, your good feelings will soar.
I'm 67, have done speculation for nearly fifty years, and still make mistakes. But perhaps I can give you some insights that will help. I learned them the hard way, and you won't have to do the same!
1. Do as much research about the company as possible. Many market 'gurus' are bozos who never leave their computer and get their boots on the ground of the firm.
2. Go with big, long trends, such as commodities, silver, and gold. But just as markets never go up steadily, accept there will be pull-backs, which can either be a buying opportunity for you, or a sign to sell and take some profit.
3. Get three opinions about the entity. Perhaps one will sound and feel best to you, or at least seem to be more in touch than the others.
4. Don't be so greedy that you blind yourself to risk, nor stay in a profitable position too long, only to watch those dollars vanish overnight. Take profits! Remember: if you make 10% in a month, that's 120% annualised. Another technique is to sell when the price has declined to what you feel may be support. This could be a percentage or a chart point.
If you need help from an extremely experienced trader at little or very low cost, stick w/Adam. He gives away what many charge thousands for, and they don't do as good a job as he does!
ADAM,
SP500 SEEMS FORM INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDER, IT MIGHT GO UP HERE, THEN FORM A DOULBE TOP.
THANKS
GEORGE
Well, this was a tough Market week indeed.
I think the Plunge Protection Team is hard at work hammering the dollar to keep the market up.
So far, Adam's video's on the SPX are giving me a cautious warning for more downtrend based on the Triangles and Fibonacci Levels.
The patterns are a bit mixed, as I can see an upright Head & Shoulders as well as an inverted Head and Shoulders on the SPX Chart.
Today, Friday 7/30, the SPX 20-ma crossed above the 50-ma, but by the close, SPX could not take out the 200-ma.
This week, I went short on Tuesday based on Elliot Wave Theory, but the talking heads and the rally on Wednesday got me out on a nervous nelly, break even.
I went short today because most of the earnings reports are in, and they didn't give the market much mojo; the treasuries took a nice leap in their up-trend, and most foreign currencies are up-trending (indicating a move to safety).
Also, there was some current news to confirm my bearish take on the market direction:
Goldman's Leading Indicator Plummets To A Seven-Month Low, Predicts An ISM Collapse Next Week:
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldmans-leading-indicator-plummets-to-a-seven-month-low-predicts-an-ism-collapse-2010-7
Trucking Industry Says Economy Is Slowing:
http://www.businessinsider.com/trucking-industry-says-economy-is-slowing-2010-7
Major Breakout In Treasuries And The Yen:
http://www.businessinsider.com/major-breakout-in-treasuries-and-the-yen-2010-7
So I see the 1120.95 and 1131.23 as major resistance for the SPX that the Bulls will have to take out in order to change my bearish view to neutral. The 1099.46 has been pierced twice, so I'm looking for it to be taken out next week with a test of the 1056.88.
Anyway Adam, let's call it a week and have another Foster 😉
Comment by art day Subscribed to comments via email
2010-07-29 22:43:10
What frustrates me are all the rules about day trading. I sold SBUX starbucks short today and had a nice $60 profit but because I am trading in my retirement account. When the dust cleared just about all my profits evaporated on the comeback.
Interactive brokers told me you cannot short in your retirement account
so how can u short in your IRA?
Mary,
It is not possible to short a market in an IRA. What you can do is sometimes use ETFs that allow you to go short in certain markets but no individual stocks.
All the best,
Adam
Adam
thanks for giving the MACD settings
have a nice day
Charalampos
Nil- & all
Also would like input on forex broker. I use thinkorswim for options and stock but forex does not seem like their forte. Tighter spreads can be seen elsewhere I think
Your videos are driving me nuts!
I can NOT run them, free? apparently, but it says I need to download this and that but that is NOT TRUE I watch videos all the time from other sites! SO what is it with your site? Are you trying to get me to download a ""SPECIAL"" bugged version of a player??????
Peter,
We use Camtasia to produce our videos and we have thousands of views everyday. Download the Adobe flash player and you should have no problems. Here is the link http://www.adobe.com/
All the best,
Adam
What frustrates me are all the rules about day trading. I sold SBUX starbucks short today and had a nice $60 profit but because I am trading in my retirement account. When the dust cleared just about all my profits evaporated on the comeback.
Art,
We are not big fans of day trading.
Thanks,
Adam
This market is serving as a reminder that being on the sidelines in cash is also a good position to have at times.
However, the day trading is superb, and tradable volatility is much welcomed. It is also a reminder that learning to trade all timeframes can smooth out profit flow.
For newer traders, times like this are terrible for a number of reasons that include: it is easier to lose money than make money for most traders; and valid trading techniques recently learned can appear to be totally useless - each technique is often dependent on certain market conditions being present. An example of the last reason is a simple buy setup on periodic pullbacks, which is an excellent way to make nice profits when the stock (or other appropriate financial instrument) is in an uptrend. And the means used to define an uptrend should have been explicitly stated when the technique was taught, and verified by the trader that it represented in the current environment (chart, or etc.)
How much does the market contribute to a stocks price movement? Some experts say the number is 75%, others attribute 50% of a stock's move to its particular industry, and so on. Whatsoever, it is a bunch.
Perhaps to be too redundant, if a trader is losing money with whatever they are using to trade, taking a break until the market environment is more trader friendly may be a smart thing to do.
James,
Thank you for taking the time to add to this blog with some very good advice. I'm sure many of the folks who read this blog will find wisdom in your words.
All the best,
Adam
I think you should all hold on from selling all stock particularly if its a big loss to you. Remember the Investment Clock. In the share market what goes down ultimately goes up. Always do your own investigation even after a tip. And know your business you are investing in, be cautious. I invest for dividends and do not trade unless forced to if I pick a dud! I had a dud last year as I followed a tip from a TV broker! I did not investigate was lazy and just dived in. But I still hold the stock as it was in renewable energy a positive for the future and has at last started to recover.
If someone has a copy of the investment cycle clock to post on this blog site please do so. I had one on my computer but lost it in a hard disc crash! So my crashes tend to be computer orientated!
Paul,
Thank you for your feedback.
I totally agree with doing your homework on any kind of trade. Just listening to talking heads on the TV is definitely not the way to get good sound advice. They may tell you when to get in but they tend to forget when to tell you to (A) cut your losses (B) take a profit.
All the best,
Adam
Been short SPY via option spreads sold well above this action. Been hearing "trading range" analysis from a variety of sources for months now and the trade triangles are blaring that message to us all.
This is a good opportunity to learn market neutral trading strategies.
I suspect that many "traders" are overjoyed at the exceptional volatility in this market, particularly the large market-makers having the capacity to trade large blocks of stocks, taking positions both short and long, and exerting tremendous influence on the direction of the market.
Certainly the sellers of Options strategies are having a field day trying to sell their services.
I always laugh when I hear the "talking heads" provide analysis to explain the up and downs based on current day circumstance or situation. Explanations are offered that "the average 'investor' is concerned with this or that current day situation, i.e., Greece, Portugal, Spain, lower Investor Confidence Indexes, etc." In today's market you just have to hope that your good at "guessing" in which direction big boys are going to take the market on any given day.
Adam,
This was posted today, yet the date on the upper left corner of the chart in the video said May 28, 2010.
What up?
John,
Please check the date of the video again. It is up to date, see top right hand corner of chart for date and then look at the bottom of the chart and you can see that the chart is in the July period.
Thanks,
Adam
This market is very frustrating to me and very difficult... I have lost money in July - I know it seems impossible, and its not much but I am negative for this month.. I guess I'll see how Friday goes...
This is a general question.... if these are the rules for the Trade Triangles.
"How "Trade Triangles" work in stocks.
The major "Trade Triangle" to watch in trading stocks is the monthly "Trade Triangle" as this triangle determines the trend. We use the weekly "Trade Triangles" for timing purposes. Let me give you an example, if the last monthly "Trade Triangle" is green this indicates that the major trend is up for that stock. You would then use the initial monthly "Trade Triangle" as an entry point and use the weekly red "Trade Triangle" as a stop out point. You would only reenter a long position if and when a green "Trade Triangle" kicked in. You would then use a weekly red "Trade Triangle" as a stop out point. Providing that a monthly green "Trade Triangle" is in place the trend is positive for the stock. The reverse is true if a red monthly "Trade Triangle" shows that the trend is down. You would then use the weekly "Trade Triangle" for entering and exiting the market."
Then ...exactly... what are the daily triangles for? Just add to your comments how the daily triangles effect decisions to be long, sidelines or short.
Thank you Adam for your help.
John,
Thank you for your feedback. The daily triangles are used to trade futures and Forex. They could also be used to treat equities on a much shorter time frame. Here are the rules you need for the daily trade triangles.
How to use trade triangles in futures and Forex.
In the futures and Forex markets we use the weekly "Trade Triangles" for trend and the daily "Trade Triangles" for timing. Let me give you an example of how that works. If a green weekly "Trade Triangle" is in place it indicates that the trend is positive for that market. Initial entry point would be on the weekly green "Trade Triangle" and then you would use a red daily "Trade Triangle" as a stop. For example if the trend was up on the weekly you would exit a position on a red daily triangle. This is not to go short but only to exit the position and wait for the trend to reestablish itself on the upside. In the event the trend that does not reestablish itself and reverses with a weekly red "Trade Triangle" you would go short on the weekly "Trade Triangle" and use the daily "Trade Triangle"for money management and reentry points.
All the best,
Adam
also remember that the brokers are the big winners, in this rigged game
go to cash in the form of gold and silver bullion this market is toast
Hello Guys,
Do anybody trade thu Dukascopy or Interactive Brokers? I am looking for reliable broker where I can open position from $10/pip up to $500/pip and they will not hunt for stoplosses.
Thank you in advance,
Nik
hi there
thanks for your analisis on the S&P500 Adam. I' m always looking forward to viewing your new videos, they mean a lot for a novice trader like me.
It has been almost a year and a half now that i'm tracking DJ30, S&P500 and the German DAX. Since lately these 3 indexes used to allign to each other but this is not the case anymore. As i have seen in the chart analysis of the DEDOW wich i believe tracks the german DAX, the score is +100 and all the trade triagles are pointing upwards, in opposition to the american indexes that have a score close to +60.
The euro is also showing remarkable strength versus the dollar.
Do you have any thoughts on that?
PS
What are the settings you use on MACD?
Charalampos,
Thank you for your feedback.
Markets have a tendency to get in step with one another and that lasts until it doesn't last anymore. I've seen this happen with countless different markets, where they seem to be in tandem and yet they somehow decouple after a period of time.
Here are the MACD settings I use:
Fast Slow Periods 1-26
Signal Period 9
All the best,
Adam
There are so many positive indicators but none of it matters until we see a close above 1115 for at least 2 days
Dear Mr. Hewison,
I am watching with high interest your analysis & evaluations, for the Euro Vs U.S. Dollar exchange rate and the possibility of the 1:1 parity.
An update of the exchange rate status, will be of importance, just to monitor if parity is still possible or if the strengthening of the Euro or the recovery of the European economies,is faster than the US economy resulting to a reversal and even further weakening of the U.S.Dollar or the US economy.
Or is this reversal "fools gold" due to summertime trading distortion.
Sincerely
hi,
well, for me, I'm a little frustrated about all these site wanting to help us choose stock to buy
Pennystock, for one, all the ones I bought, I'm losing money with...
Mdor...I'm losing with so much....I do not trust anyone anymore, and I think I will sell all my stock,
soon, and forget about Wall street.
The only one who make money are those who send us tips....
Sorry, really.
u have a nice day
Hi Adam,
I still think that most of the good earnings we see are due to cost-cutting. The new jobless claims will be the major macro number today. People and businesses alike are saving cash because of fear. It's more like a staring contest than a tug of war. Whoever blinks today, loses. But tomorrow...
David