13 thoughts on “The Bear is Back!!”

  1. This market is very unpredictable, even with technical analyses. It does its own thing and at times doesn't seem to care about technical rules. This market no doubt gets bullied and played by the big banksters and you have to stay one step ahead of them. The best recent trade on this market would have been to short it with puts when it was unable to break 1125 for a whole week.

  2. It's summer and if the FED is going to do anything it won't be until September or October (I'm referring to Quantitative Easing). Until then, the market could test the FED with a BEAR rally to force a decision or it could rally BULLISHY in anticipation of a Fed easing policy in the Fall.

    Looking at the major indeces' moving averages, the choppy but slightly bullish RSI and the MACD's positive divergence, it looks to me like short term traders will see action with resistance and support tests, but long term traders may want to wait for this consolidation type behavior to settle down into a real trend.

    PATIENCE is a virtue.

  3. How can you say the bear is back? We have not taken out the previous lows. We will not know the bear is back until after the fact. I follow your work very closely and you triangle technlogy is great, but not infallible. You were wrong the last time you called a potential decline, and may be wrong this time. Thats fine we all get it wrong sometimes. But it seems to be me you have bias to the short side right now Adam. Sentiment does not indicate a major decline and all those head and shoulders, traditional chart patterns blah blah blah that you talk about just do not work in the real world - with a failure rate of 50% or so.

    Love your work, but I think you are pumping the downside right now. I am not saying we will have a rip roaring bull more of a sidweays grind.

  7. I would be very careful here before declaring this a bear market. One, you have lots and lots of company. Way too much talk about deflation, death cross and now the deadly Hindenburg Omen. Two, the sentiment indicators are nowhere near where precious bear markets have begun. The Investors Intelligence is at a level that is more normally correlated to a bottom, not a top. Three, the stock market has now gapped down 5 straight days, a very occurrence and has been down three straight Fridays, another abnormal number. Last, unlike the 2008 drop, the HUI has been trending up. Back then, it fell sharply two month before the market dropped badly.

    I think you are about to be whipsawed here. Keep your eyes on silver. If it goes up, we are not in a scary deflationary selloff.

  8. Are there intra-week 'stop loss' levels where today's weekly triangle changes would be negated, or is it by definition only reviewed again next Monday?

    1. JackD,

      Thank you for your feed back. The stop out point will be a new weekly green triangle which is determined by market action.

      All the best,
      Adam

  9. Ok, so, I think you just answered my first question on prior post

    What about the how- MA or agorithm?

  10. Excellent!! This type of near-real-time alert is crucial with the current volatility. Thanx Adam

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