Earlier this week I posted about the crude market and the best indicators (in addition to our "Trade Triangles") for conquering this sideways, but slowly rising, market. Could crude oil eventually head toward or beyond the highs seen in 2008?
Loading ...As always instead of just giving my views on the markets, I like to hear our Trader's Blog readers' opinions as well. So after you vote, tell me what you think in our comments section.
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If the dollar goes down, the price of oil goes up, however, the value is staying equal to our dollar. You are not making money on the price of oil going up, it is just reflecting the weakness of our dollar. This government seems to be committed to destroying the value of our dollar so that we lose our reserve currency status! If this happens, our country will really go down. People need to stand up and fight for a stronger dollar &, thereby, a stronger nation. This is of supreme importance to all of our families and lives.
MrCoal,
My guess is that government regulations will depress the supply of coal while demand continues to rise causing the price of coal to move higher. Gold price appreciation will slow down or move lower as it appears the world economies are strengthening and risk of significant currency devaluation receding. 2012 could be a reversal for gold, however. What are your thoughts?
2011 will be the year COAL will glitter more than GOLD.
Anyone here wonder why?!
"Drill baby drill". Nuf said, from a true blue American. The spill was sad and unfortuate. However, the risk to the planet has been very mild considering the benefit to the economy of having the supply of oil from the Gulf of Mexico. When the economy suffers, more people will get hurt than will get hurt from another spill, which over time happens rarely in anything like the magnitude of this one......
YOU DONT NEED A DRILL STE; a scoop will do just fine. I have a place in Clearwater (is that a oxymoron?). Locations is 5 miles to the beach, for scooping, and a mile to K-mart to collect my old records. It don't get no better. life is good, free oil for profit with a cheap scoop. and plenty of time to hang out at K-mart (24-7) see ya'll at the beach in the Am scooping, we can have lunch @ k-mart and shop for oldies! "Thank you very much" ELVIS PS: how can the price of oil go up when you can scoop it up for free?
There was the tiny, inconvenient matter of the biggest spill in history just last year. I live in St. Petersburg FL. By your reasoning, we should drill right off the pier if we think there might be a buck in it. Are you even an American?
TO TEMO: YOU CANT PROVE YOUR STATEMENT. Obozo will not show his record of birth, SS no. or draft card. He enrolled in college as a foreign student. THE WORLD and KENYA know that, we all know that. THINK MAN: IF YO MOMMA is american and YO daddy (who has wives all ready) is from africa.............. YOU CAN NEVER BE A NAURAL BORN CITIZEN. PERIOD. NO DOCTOR OR NURSE IN HAWII has claimed him as born there. Kenya has a doctor and nurses that delivered him, the Kenya government has his birth certificate. His AFRICAN grandmother and older siblings claimed they witnessed his birth there. You have been duped, and brainwashed, Your ignorance is showing.
Almost everybody is looking for a bubble in the commodity market and it is true that something is coming. On a technical point of vue, let's have a sharp look on Q2: we could have a big big surprise. Until then...
Interesting question. Obviously, no one really knows whether the price of crude oil will trend up or down or sideways. The price will be manipulated only to the extent that large speculators can take advantage of herd mentality on the part of smaller speculators, I would guess. If, however, price is driven by supply/demand, and not having all the facts before me, I would guess the price will continue to rise as the world economies improve and demand rises. That assumes supply will continue to go down or remain about the same, which in the short term, is probably a pretty good guess. One thing I'm just beginning to become aware of though are some new drilling technologies that might do for crude oil supplies what they've done recently for natural gas supplies. That is, significantly increase them. Horizontal drilling and petro-fracing technologies appear to have the potential of opening up reserves which have previously been too expensive to get from known existing sources. If this is the case, we might see crude oil prices drop again to very low levels within a few years. Wouldn't that be an interesting development for crude oil speculators, not to mention the world economy, and world politics? I'd love to see it happen.
The market is driven by the price of the dollar vs. others. The political impact of having this fraud as president will determine the direction of all markets. He is a total joke. He intends to destroy this economy and business. The market indexes are manipulated by his government and it is doom to failure, its just a matter of time. There will be no investors, at any price. Commodities, the general market indexs, bonds, gold and silver will all crash. there is no place to hide, the king has no clothes. Europe is on the ropes, and bernake has been pumping them as well. Our banks hold half thier investment in Europe, the banks will not lend. their holdings in treasury bonds is at great risk. The bond market will crash as us debt will be downgraded to junk. We are in a depression, and have been since year 2000. Short all of the above or go to cash, there are no buyers except bernank. "Thank you very much!" elvis
I've found some of the comments on this thread interesting. I conclude that, at the end of the day, it really doesn't matter if the World is awash with oil when everyone thinks it isn't, or if speculators are building another bubble. All we need is our own, or a proprietary system, that lets us trade the trend long, and short, if we are so inclined. If you are using the trade triangles, pick your poison (monthly, weekly or daily) and backtest your plan.
As I generally mostly trade ETFs, I model inverse ETFs on red monthly or weekly trade triangles. This approach seems to work better with some tickers than it does others where the incremental revenue sometimes doesn't offset the added risk. Whipsaw sideways markets can be hard on the inverse or leveraged ETF holder, so model it out and try to find other money management tools to add.
Which gives me the opportunity to bend Jeremy's ear again about adding what I think would be a killer ap for Marketclub. If the stock databases work how I *think* they do, I don't see the coding to filter on 1. a time period, 2. monthly, weekly or daily TTs yielding open and close pricing AND the ability to export in csv format as that hard. And boy, would that be useful.............
After the multi-portfolio upgrade that is. Still waiting, Adam and Jeremy 🙂
Anthony,
The multi-page porfolio manager is coming. Look for it anyday now.
As for your other comment they are spot on.
All the best,
Adam
You are an idiot John. Whatever your politics,ANY reasoning individual KNOWS the POTUS was born in Hawaii(that's part of the US.) and your willingness to throw your little insinuation out there into the debate only shows your ignorance. Or your willingness to propagate a piece of Tea Party b.s (long since discredited Either way, you should know better.
Our beloved president Obama is the single most reason why prices are going up. He shut off drilling in most off shores and is so damn anti-drilling. It appears to me that he would want drilling only in Muslim countries his place of birth. Then you have the speculators who want to profit from our failure to drill because of Obama's regulations, jump on the band wagon. People we have to rise to stop the idiot in our WHITE HOUSE!
The world is totally awash in oil and it´s in a stupendous technological cycle and the supply of cheap labor seems endless. It´s a world that is drowning in overcapacity. Still, traders with too much money on their hands blow up impossible bubbles in things that do not get shipped around. So, it´s actually imaginary stuff on non-existent money that they´re passing around between themselves. It isn´t moving in the real world because it´s way out of buyers. The Baltic Dry Index is in the dumps.
The International Energy Agency (?) now states that 2007 was peak oil. Of course natural gas liquids and unconventional oil will ease the crunch. But tar sands bitumen and very deep sea oil and other unconventional sources are all more costly than conventional light sweet crude. SO the long term price is surely up, up, etc.
The Gulf of Mexico government moratorium caused a number of drill ships to head for Egypt, Nigeria, Brazil, etc. They won't be back. It takes about 5 years to build a new one--after you get off the waiting list. Some drill ships/rigs are at a reduced rate in standby. Waiting for the government to write new regulations and hire new people to enforce 'em. Figure 10 years for things to get back to normal. The Gulf was expected to produce 7% more in 2011. Now they are calling for 11% reduction. A difference of about 250,000 barrels a day. Thanks BP for starting this mess. Thanks gov't for extending it.
If the world economy really gets into bad enough shape that prices come down we will really be in a sorry mess. Of course short and medium term there will be pretty big fluctuations.
The dollar is in the tank since the US is bankrupt according to Geithner the latest Wall St. Sec. of the Treasury. If Uncle Sam doesn´t borrow additional grillions from him to extend earlier loans it will default. If this wisdom is supposed to work macro how about micro with you and your bank.
Oil has been trading against the dollar. The weaker the dollar the stronger the price of oil. The dollar is fgoing lower, hence oil is going higher.I remember all to well the "windfall profits tax" in the 70's. It almost killed the domestic oil industry.
I trade oil through the ETF DBO using the generic Marketclub buy/sell strategy using monthly and weekly TTs. Hence I am long DBO presently.
I recall when oil was $35 a barrel -- which is is when I was re-entering a position in DBO before I joined Marketclub -- telling myself that, well, I might not see $100 a barrel oil but I would sure as heck see $70 a barrel. That was a while ago. Have there been times in 2010 when the market churned us with little or no profit per transaction? Sure. (If I don't like that I should go back to trading on the monthlies) But I find it inconceivable that in the longer term, oil prices will not rise. I base that conclusion on a continuing increase in the demand for oil in the emerging markets, which is not going to met by an increase in supply.
Of course oil will have its ups and downs reflecting supply, demand and confidence but the in the long run it will rise. In part this is due to the decline in confidence in the US dollar.
The Baltic Dry Index is in the tank.
Shouldn´t it be rocking if all those overpriced commodities really were being shipped?
Isn´t it true that the grillions in bailout monies to save impossible bubbles have gone into new bubbles that when they collapse have to be bailed out and so on?
OUR CHINESE FRIENDS WILL PEDAL BIKES NO MORE. AFTER ALL IT IS UNSEAMLY FOR THE MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE NOT TO HAVE FOUR WHEEL DRIVE.
Crude oil up you bet. Vacation time just around the corner. Get it?
With the demand for oil growing rapidly in India and China and the likely growth in the US economy in 2011 the chances are that oil prices will reach 125$. One cannot forget the need in OPEC countries to have oil greater than 100$.
Dear all,
crude oil is very closely correlated to the S&P 500. If the S&P weakens so will oil. Unfortunately the oil price shows a lot of stochastic chaos (e.g. a lot of expanding triangles), which makes nearly every technical indicator fail. I suppose that oil can only be traded fundamentaly on the basis of long-term swings (holding-periods > 1 year). From that perspective oil is still a buy but with a lot of painful volatility in between. For that reason I kicked oil out of my short and mid-term trading portfolio and focused the money on the S&P 500. The diversification advantage of oil to the S&P 500 is anyway near to zero.
I. Janssen from Germany
92.58 just might be it for the near future. We have been calling for a pull back around January 15th. Is this it?
I live and work in the Oilfield in the Permian Basin in Texas.Drilling is very active right now and all the service companies are covered up with work. Hard to find a company with a frac unit available. I live in Gardendale, Texas (George HW & George W. both lived here at one time) and they are drilling next door to our houses. It is killing property values but it indicates how hard they are going after domestic oil. If you don't own the mineral rights, they will drill on your land whether you like it or not.
The oil price will decline sooner or later. Possibly because it chokes the economy or as a result of the next downturn which is already in progress.
Look for 'Consumer Metrics Institute: The Growth Index Continues to Slide Back'
all markets are manipulated but oil is manipulated huge! experts I follow say oil will go back to the old and and even higher. there will be blood in the streets as a result.