The Fall of Egypt and the Future of Gold

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Despite all the turmoil in Egypt and the Arab world, gold has stubbornly refused to rally. This probably causes great concern amongst the gold bugs and the folks who are bullish on gold.

As we have mentioned before many times on this blog, "perception is more powerful than fundamentals."

While the gold bugs argue that the market is being manipulated, I am more of a realist and respect what the market is actually doing. The big question on everyone's mind is: Why are food prices and other commodity markets soaring, while gold is dismally staying down in the $1,330 area?

NEW GOLD VIDEO


MarketClub's Trade Triangles are all Red, meaning that the trend for gold is likely to remain negative or at best move in a sideways fashion.

My best estimation at this point in time is that we are going to see more sideways action and probably some recovery from current levels. However, I would like to see some concrete evidence that the market has actually put in a low and that we will see a recovery in this yellow metal in the future.

One thing I can say, historically our monthly RED Trade Triangles have not been successful in gold. You would have been more successful fading the RED monthly Trade Triangle signal and going long gold.

Before getting, "gung ho" on this approach, you will be better off waiting for a green weekly trade triangle to kick in which would indicate that the market has probably made a low.

That is the main reason why, we recommend using the weekly Trade Triangles for trend, and daily Trade Triangle's for timing.

In this short video, I explained what I mean and show you concrete examples of how you can use this strategy to make money.

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no registration requirements. Our only request is that you tell your friends, Tweet and Facebook about this blog posting. We would also enjoy hearing from you, so please feel free to comment on this blog about this video.

Enjoy,

All the best,
Adam Hewison
President of INO.com and co-founder of MarketClub

P.S. If you’re not already a MarketClub member, you should seriously look into our “Trade Triangle” technology. It will help get you into the markets at the right time and out before everything starts to slide.

You can learn more about MarketClub by clicking here, or you can sign up for a 30 day risk free trial right here.

28 thoughts on “The Fall of Egypt and the Future of Gold”

  3. one thing i can say for sure.
    some systems works for some index/stocks/commodities.
    no system works for all index/stocks/commodities.

    obviously this triangle signaling sell would have been a great buy opportunity.

  4. Hi Adam,

    I have enjoyed your videos on gold and hope you will continue to post new videos.

    I do have a question. I noticed the daily triangle is still red, yet a couple of days ago gold closed above the sell signal of 1352. I would have thought that the daily triangle would have turned green based on gold closing above the sell signal.

    I guess I am missing something. Can we expect more downside next week based on the triangles?

    Thank you

    James Rangel

    1. James,

      This may help you.

      How to use trade triangles in Gold.
      In the gold market we use the weekly "Trade Triangles" for trend and the daily "Trade Triangles" for timing. Let me give you an example of how that works. If a green weekly "Trade Triangle" is in place it indicates that the trend is positive for that market. Initial entry point would be on the weekly green "Trade Triangle" and then you would use a red daily "Trade Triangle" as a stop. For example if the trend was up on the weekly you would exit a position on a red daily triangle. This is not to go short but only to exit the position and wait for the trend to reestablish itself on the upside. In the event the trend that does not reestablish itself and reverses with a weekly red "Trade Triangle" you would go short on the weekly "Trade Triangle" and use the daily "Trade Triangle"for money management and reentry points.

      All the best,

      Adam

  5. Hi Adam,

    I have enjoyed your videos on gold and hope you will keep posting in the near future.

    I do have a question. I noticed the daily triangle is still flashing red, yet gold has traded above the sell signal of 1352 a couple of days ago. My question would be how come the daily triangle is still red? Does the daily triangle expect more downside on gold?

    Again thank you for your excellent videos on gold

    James Rangel

  6. adam,
    how do you translate the gold spot that you routinely track to stock/options trading? do you use the GLD, GDX or Other ETF to play the gold market?
    what are your thoughts on this?

    mike

    1. Mike,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      I like to use the ETF GLD as it is the biggest and most liquid ETF for gold right now.

      For the most part this ETF tracks pretty closely spot gold. We trade spot gold a little bit differently than we trade the ETF GLD. In spot gold we use the weekly trade triangles for trend and daily trade triangles for timing entry and exit points. In the ETF GLD we use our monthly and weekly trade triangles for trend and entry exit points. You can also use just the monthly trade triangles for long term trading in gold and in the ETF GLD. It all depends on your trading personality.

      I hope this helps that every success in the future.

      Adam

  7. Sir,
    While I'm not a member of Market Club I have watched your presentations almost 2 years. I'm impressed with your firm and your personal responses here.

    One quick observation from here in the Philippines, silver is so tight one cannot buy it even from Philippine Central Bank. Gold while poising another downward leg has a long term bull established. With that many more firms are here looking and testing. Expect to see more Philippine mine opportunities in the near future. Some past like Philex, and most recent Philippine Metals Inc are such opportunities. Wish I owned either...

    Thank you for the ongoing lessons and as I get back to work expect a membership forthcoming.

  9. Im a market club member. I use a iPad.can you write the link to Youtube videos and flash.
    Thans in advance

  10. I am not a trader but have invested in gold, silver and platinum producing companies very successfully starting about 2 years ago...more luck than skill I'm afraid, but I intend to hold for the relative long term. While the past month does show a distinct downtrend from the $1422 top, a look at the long term trends in the price of gold seems to indicate a multi-year long support level around $1250-$1300. Looking even further back, this recent run on gold looks a lot like the mid-point of the 1970-80's run up to $800 before the Fed jacked up interest rates to 20% to stop inflation in its tracks (and drop gold's price like brick). Talk of QE+ is not even in the same ball park as the approach taken 30 years ago! While that is keeping the US economy on life support it is killing fragile economies around the world with inflation...it is only a matter of time before that approach comes home to roost and lay a real egg on helicopter Ben...the dirty Thirty's revisited. Short term, I'm afraid any sale could too easily end up whip-saw'd.

  13. You can't eat Gold. People have to have food though. I'm not wise in investing, just stating the obvious.

  14. So Adam, with gold looking not so great should we ignore strong buy signals on the trading triangles for individual mining stocks? For example, I believe minera andes just registered a weekly buy signal and has a 100% score.Thanks.

    1. Renny,

      The short answer would be no you take the signals. There are stocks and there are commodities and sometimes they move in different directions because the sentiment.

      Every success,
      Adam

  15. Seems like a perfect time to buy here and hold for a year or more. Long-term trend is still up. The bubble has not popped yet and the momentum favors more upside.

  16. I've been following the monthly triangles and losing money. So...we may as well throw darts...

    'One thing I can say, historically our monthly RED Trade Triangles have not been successful in gold. You would have been more successful fading the RED monthly Trade Triangle signal and going long gold.'

    Got to be a better way.

    1. Jack,

      It's sort of strange that you say you been following the monthly trade triangles and losing money. As you are not a MarketClub member nor can I find anything in our system saying that you were a member. To make a judgment on our trade triangle technology and not having full access to it , is not the way to make a judgment on anything without first hand knowledge.

      There may be a better way than trade triangles but I have not found it in over three decades of trading. Thousands of MarketClub members in over 60 countries have found our approach to be successful for them.

      I invite you to try MarketClub risk-free for 30 days.

      Here is the link you need.
      https://secure.ino.com/products/marketclub/

      All the best,
      Adam

  17. I totally agree but I would like to bring back to mind 2 additional arguments for trading gold technically in a cold-blooded manner and not fundamentally. First of all gold does not pay dividends. Secondly gold is not backed by a steadily rising industrial demand like silver, platinum etc. This lack of "cushions" in the case of short-term draw-backs makes Gold a critical buy-and-hold asset - at least from the perspective of an risk-averse asset manager, who has to show a steady performance on a yearly basis.

    I. Janssen

  18. Two comments; First, simply recognizing that gold and silver had a very energetic run to current +$1300 from August and a pause to re-base is due. The notion that the $1300 is "dismal" at this point seems a bit anxious.

    Secondly, macro inflationary influences of monetary oversupply imbalance markets unevenly and manifest in prices or rates of exchange unevenly over time. Technical analysis is useful in measuring historic trends, but is limited to probabilities in reliably predicting what necessarily follows in price movement in a given short, intermediate, or long term window. The accuracy of expectation always requires a clear understanding in the fundamental drivers of a trend.

    Price manipulations are a fact of all markets, and now are influenced by trading technology affordable to and utilized by only elite trading entities. Their profitable work is in exploiting shorter term excesses. Longer term, not so much. The long and short of it is in distinguishing macro from micro and whether you're trading, hedging or investing.

    I must say that Adam most genially provides a reliable technical guide to marry with fundamentally based expectation and capital protection strategies. All necessary things required to survive this emerging valuation Armageddon.

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