The potential turmoil that our economy is facing has made many people question whether or not there will be another market crash in the near future (1-5 years).
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[2] of you i have got personal with, and i hope you look up what i suggested. the fed /wall street are/is lying to all of us. the online speculators; US/we/they/them/ any one with a computer is making this situation at this point GREED has taken over and it is time to SHORT the market and knock these people down into rational practice. before big moms spreads her butt and squashes us all.yours in Christ/GOD bless America and keep free the internet for all of us. do not let the liberals/abomination shut us out?!!
go to the federal reserve bank of
ny*@fr*.org
; i think that is the website,anyway read how the fed is going to make a mirical?? yours in Christ/god bless america. all the fed guys/worman are lieing to us all.
how much have you made at this site, since you joined? i have "0" dollar from this site, but then there is nothing to be made from listening to npr?! so if you know/share with the rest of us. this president/administration is meaningless?!
Chuck,
I see you are not a member of MarketClub. I find it is hard to be critical of a service you are not a member of therefore you do not know the facts.
Adam
You can make anything happen if you try, and when it fails get back up and try again in a different way, but do not give up. Life is good and is not going to end because we all have needs that have to be filled to which keeps the world turning. Chears
In June of this year there are more ARM resets than the year that triggered this depression. Since a high proportion have baloons that they thought they'd be able to refi because of an increase in property value and the resets will up monthly payments, we can expect a higher proportion of defaults. This is going to kill the banks unless the Fed picks up all this worthless paper, if they do it will greatly increase ultimate inflation (probably 1-3 yr. lag in hyperinflation) and further drive down long term Treasury bond prices. Since the Japanese have there own earthquake-tsunami-nuclear expenses their purchase of our bonds will greatly decrease. The Chinese have already decreased their purchases. European bond buyers have their own governmental default bond problems and will probably decrease their purchases. All this will result in the Fed having to buy our bonds with created money which will further increase the probability of hyperinflation. Fasten the seatbelts but hold onto your hats as your body will be dropping really fast.
The market crash will happen when the dollar is revalued
down 50 percent from it's present level and
we lose worlds reserve currency status.
If you read the question, you would have seen the time frame of 1-5 years at the end of the question.
Maybe this explains it. Kadaffi was shaking down the oil companies and they were just waiting for an excuse.
You don't mess with Hallberton.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42245106/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/
Highly likely
overcreation of USD can only lead to inflationary pressures once demand takes over. Thus higher interest rates. But before that happens weak dollar and much higher commodities.
The equity and commodity markets are not trading on fundamentals, but rather on liquidity — as long as the free money is available, no worries. After that, who knows, but it might not be pretty.
Copying this from a newsletter I subscribe to:
If it weren't for the Middle East undergoing a broad popular revolt, our stock market most likely would be trending higher. On news Thursday that the Arab League is considering a peace proposal for Libya, oil prices pulled back somewhat and the market traded up strongly. On Friday, when there was no improvement in Libya and oil prices moved higher, the market dropped. This suggests that when the Middle Eastern turmoil settles down, investors will refocus on the solid fundamentals and get back to buying stocks.
There's always something going on in the world that will give investors reason to worry. Sometimes it's Korea or Iran or China or Russia or Greece or Portugal or Ireland or Spain or Afghanistan or Iraq or Palestine or Israel or Somalia or Mexico -- the list goes on and on. More frequently, however, it's our own government -- and how much we spend beyond our means -- that's the concern.
As an investor, you should look through these worries most of the time. The headline news raises anxiety and can create an emotional urge to sell. Yet, most of the time, selling is a mistake.
As Warren Buffett, 80, explained in his recent letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders: "Throughout my lifetime, politicians and pundits have constantly moaned about terrifying problems facing America. Yet our citizens now live an astonishing six times better than when I was born. The prophets of doom have overlooked the all important factor that is certain: Human potential is far from exhausted, and the American system for unleashing that potential -- a system that has worked wonders for over two centuries despite frequent interruptions for recessions and even a Civil War -- remains alive and effective."
When the Fed stops pumping liquidity into the economy the market will crash. In my view that's the only reason this market has been able to sustain such an unsupportable gain for the last two years. A bounce was to be expected off the March 2009 lows but this "bull market" is totally unsupportable. We're playing a fixed horse race and soon someone will finally notice that the emperor has no clothes. Of course the insiders will be long gone by then.
This decade is time to make money in stocks. Most people will be just surviving as the gov't. debt grows. War and its weapons employ many people. Our work on products is still growing overseas.
We have negative interest rates, monetary easing & Asia either building (China & Korea) or re-building (Japan). Instability in the mid-east & rising oil prices will push the US into building up alternative energy systems resulting in more internal stimulus. All positive for the market.
Call it the luck of the FED that this Japanese crisis fell right into their lap just when the dollar index was about to drop below the 75 to 95 trading band it has oscillated within for the last several years. Talk about having your perfect control mechanism that you wished for handed to you at the exact right moment. Not trying to instigate technological conspiracy theories just pointing to amazing congruity and coincidence happenings. The odds Fred, those are very long odds, but of course you can always be extremely lucky.
I'm also agreeing with Mr. Mauros opinion.
Shemsuu
Ethiopia
We will not have to worry about gold, silver or anything after 21/12/12
If QE II ends we will have a major correction. QEIII means Gold Silver and stocks continue their inflation based rally. In Terms of Elliott Wave theory we are at the end of a Wave V in a Super Cycle which means something has got to give. My bets are on June of this year.
The Japanese crisis will obviously force the FED to start hiking rates to bolster the dollar vs. the yen. The G-7 have announced their commitment to keep the japanese currency down in the face of japanese repatriation of capital to fund their massive reconstruction expenses. The only way the FED has to honor this commitment is to bolster the dollar with interest rate hikes. This will obviously pop the counter trades to the dollar; commodities, US stocks and US govt. bonds, all of which are in stupendous bubbles as a result of the falling dollar. So; this is the perfect moment for the FED to pop those inflationary bubbles, all the while helping a major holder of US debt, beating down inflationary pressure from commodities and bolstering their own spin about an improving US economy. US interest rate hikes thus seem inevitable with resulting major corrections in US stocks, commodities and US govt. bonds. Regards, g.
The fact is the world is growing to fast neat term to shut down the demands for goods. We will contest the financials in the US and that in itself will provide a stalemate, which will slow the spending without government help..."thank the lord".
China has a better handle on their own affairs so it's unlikely a problem will emanate from the East. Things will improve here in the States at a pace that makes yogurt turn to jelly... still, it will happen.
The markets are driven by perceptions of events rather than facts. This is complicated by the computer-managed machinations of the big funds and investors which too-often over-react. Unless of course they are designed to generate market volatility. In which case it does not matter what we individual investors think. However volatility in politics seems to be the wave of the future. Hence volatility in the markets will follow.
As always, 4-Basket portfolio, Weekly/Monthly Trade Triangles come H or High Water.
Well, I think Anything's possible , because after the moviment we will receive the explanation .. so even with so many problems, for some reason the market is ralling, so lets see and trade with stops ...
best regards,
Mauro from Brazil,
33% believe anything is possible. What bunch of gutless wennies. Take a stand! Perhaps those who poll shouldn't make it so easy for those who constantly sit on the sidelines... OF COURSE THE MARKET WILL CRASH!!! 180 mile/hour jobless recovery. What moron believes that... Oh, um, Joe Bide.
Maybe the Aztec Calendar had it right?
QE3? QE4? QE5 ad infinitum ! Liquidity rules. 1trillion annual deficit into forseeable future!!! Ben does not dare quit stimulating "Or else".
I believe anything is possible because if the fundimentals are all under preforming but yet the market is still continues to climb as it has, there is a rather large imbalance that could show up as a big slide in the market. That is when the floor can fall out from underneath everyone. I try to also understand that the market is feelings and that when the social mood is good or getting better it can go to extreems. That is why I see the market blowing off bad news and as it continues in the direction it is going. So if I disregard the BS of news for the long term and trade in the direction of market without trying to hit the tops or bottoms I have a higher probability on all my trades. Take note of pivot points, they can really help to get clairity of probability in direction. The DOW hit the yearly R1 and bounced down towards the Yearly PP 10,938 but no where near it and is now headed back up to the yearly R1. Will it blow through and continue to R2 12,950 or will it continue down to the yearly PP for a lower level target. We shall see. I will be watching the 12,300 level to see what the market does.
I think that much of the worry lately is due to most Americans have no idea what is really going on in N. Africa; heck, many of them could not even find Libya on a map much less the countries of the Arabian peninsula; e.g. Yemen and Syria. Most Americans (and many of the financial pundits) have no idea that Canada is our number one provider of crude and that we receive very little from Libya (~40,000 Bls/day). They also do not understand the relationship of the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia and Bahrein (they are both predominately Shi'a) etc. etc.
Why do I know this because I was the senior advisor (USMTM)for the western third of Saudi Arabia in '82-83 and worked with the American Embassy, the ambassador at that time, Richard Murphy). I am also a retired LTC for the US Army and West Point class of '63.
Thank you,
Bob Lewsen
The mother of all crashes is coming, but it will not occur in an environment where earnings are rising. One tool I'll use as a signal is the trade triangles for the DOW and Nasdaq.
Any minute now... and yer gonna need more than a safety belt...
Interesting how all this relates back to JP Morgan's and Hong Kong Savings Bank's massive short position in silver.
The war in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, nuke disasters, earthquakes, food shortages, Sovereign crises ... all just to take the sheep's minds off a few ounces of silver that ain't there.
Always wondered what will be the trigger to bring down this civilization. Hubris and a few ounces of strategic metal ...
... all done!
depends upon the time-frame...."our future" is a bit open-ended.
5 years...........yes
3 years...........probably
1 year............maybe
6 months..........perhaps
3 months..........mmmmmmmm (end of QE2)
1 month...........probably not
1 week............doubt it
today.............hope not!
be well
Ian
from a sunny English Lake District.
Just like the last poll, this one has no timeframe. That makes the responses meaningless.