Did anyone see this week’s reversal coming?! After about 6 straight weeks of a downtrend, the DOW alone went up 600 points!
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Careful Joe! A Chinese parting curse is: "May you have interesting times". (And interesting we shall have).
As to where the Market goes from here, I believe it will be a tug of war between REALITY and Uncle Bernanke (The FED) and the PPT (Plunge Protection Team).
us is broke
all else is illusion
I am sticking with the yearly pivot points. DOW hit near Yearly R2 at 12,950 and is headed to Yearly PP 11,000 and if 11k holds i will be buying. Then hopefully up for the fall. The market seems to be range bound during summer months. Long term my monthly chart looks very scarry. It looks like we are at the top of a Right Shoulder of a HnS that spans from 1999 to current. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I love that we live in interesting times!
I smell a rat!
Could it be that the Federal Reserve has decided to start pumping the stock market, now that it's not buying bonds?
If you look at the intraday charts for the past 5 days, you'll see what appears to be a computer buying program kick in at 10am EDT Monday and run all week. The votes in Greece were merely bumps along the way and had very little to do with the market movement.
Don't be misled. The markets are manipulated now more than ever!
I saw a bounce on the 200 MA and went long spy calls but had some great gains on spy puts to the MA. also had puts on apple, rimm, first solar and others all around 100%+ movers lost on some rimm calls
Its hard to say. I have never seen our country in so much turmoil, at this pace we will be a thrid world country, very, very soon
Does that mean the trend will be up because,the crowd are still calling it off ,plus I have a pattern beak which is upside for equities Eurostox50 2839 (futures)is support for this pattern today 4th July.
Would be interested in any feedack on this report and any historical info. on possible outcome as these shorts might keep the uptrend going
DJI
I see the market move some 30-35 points up come Tuesday 5th July. There would be resistance at 12,615 and 12,655. Then, there would a correction The market should find support at 12,237-12,246.
The Asian markets rallied this morning. Nikkei touched 10,000 in two months. Others are generally up. This was the response to US market rally on Friday.Looking at DJI ,I am not getting any signals out of volume and trend is not very strong either.I expect the market to move on up about 33 points come Tuesday and begin a correction. I see resistance at 12,615 and 12,655 and may find support at 12,246.
Am expecting cash Spx to test 1345 a couple times....failed then ultimately go down to 1220 cash Spx, then a very big rally.
if you think this recession is over, i have got an old confederet flag for your flag pole, you can raise it up the pole and sing dixie every morning, and good investing!!!!
Greece kicked the can down the road again.Technical rally bounced off 200dma.The higher you drop the ball from the higher the bounce.Greece is nothing compared to the U.S. deficit limit iff the talks dont start shaping up then grab your helmets and flack jackets.The markets are gonna turn into a war zone along with the global economies.I wonder just how far Obama's conviction is for his socialist fantasy stay tuned.
The heat of the summer is on. Large amounts of money will stabilize the market for the time being. Some loses, some gains, and predictable winners. However, August and September will see a pullback with some profit taking and positioning for Holiday turn arounds. Gold and silver will see gains, gas and oil will show their true colors with the winter season. Tech sector will position for 2012 and markets will have to adjust for obvious reasons - namely Greece, China, and of course the USA.
I have a feeling that the real excitement will be mother nature giving us a run for our money as she seems to have done over the last couple of years; helping to create market gains after the initial crises have past.
It would be my hope that the European Union will start acting like a Union and find a way to create good earning jobs and income in the wake of Greece's current crises. We here in the United States know all to well that "United WE STAND - Divided WE FALL!". These lessons are learned through our own hardships in the past and ones we would be wise NOT to ignore.
I see Japan's economy surging. Their steadfastness and their remarkable suffering with dignity is profound to say the least. Investing in this would be the prudent thing to do.
The loggerheads over increasing the Debt Ceiling could create the next major downturn in the Dow and the overall Stock Markets (globally). Personally, I don't think an agreement will be reached on Aug. 2, 2011. Watch for serious consequences some time after this situation is resolved or not resolved.
I think the reversal this week will progress for another week before people realize there was no reason for the recovery.
Well maybe a few weeks more but I can't see how with states cities towns and even
the US government in unmanageble debt That the market will continue to go up.
The Elliot Wave Theorists predicted it as the next up-wave leg (4i I believe) to be followed by the next down-leg.
Desperate folks with desperate and/or cheaply borrowed money trying to recuperate previously acquired losses. The rally leg was based on a thin straw of a slightly higher manufacturing index (probably a standard statistical deviation) in a sea of adverse economic news: housing, unemployment, auto sales, disposable income, Greek bailout, other PIIGS insolvency problems, etc.
I'm in the breakdown camp.
The bulls are trying to rally and looking pretty good so far. This is how institutional money wants it to look like before the door slams! Very soon we'll find out whether this bull in commodities was due or if QE was a major contributor. An easing in demand and the European crisis will come to the front. Then there's the US economy that has been dangerously massaged. So look for a short bounce in the USD (go figure), another value added correction and the next sincere boom will emerge.
I don't see a major correction but I would anticipate some profit taking.
I knew this was coming, as did all those who follow Elliott Wave Theory
i may add : i think this newfound uptrend is going to continue next weeks, during July and beginning of Aug. Next week we`ll se some consolidation after huge jumps last days. What do you think ?
Last week was nothing more than a technical bounce. The 10 day oscillator got down to -73 on June 13th with the S&P 500 at 1272. On Friday, July 1st the oscillator finished at +62 with the S&P 500 at 1340. The normal range for this oscillator is + or - 60 to 70. A further move up over the short term is highly unlikely.
I preferred your prior daily blurbs with the standard charts that make up your methodology. All he rest is B.S. I buy and sell stocks. Just waiting for the ideal buy zone, not the bottom etc, which is within an up trend etc is all one needs. It is called timing, something you excell in. More than several times I have been ready to subscribe, but you insist on introducing sometning new that most of the time is some indicator that has been around for 50 years.
We are now beginning the longest, sustained surge upwards in stock market history.
I think we are in a random walk model (some days, weeks up, others down). This is all within a narrow range of say +/- 600 points on the Dow. What Obama does to the taxes next year and how he plans to get the USA out of debt will define the long term tread.
THE DJIA did hit a support line. It then became a case of whether it would hold there.
When the markets were NOT manipulated by the Fed and its proxies, you would
not have seen a run-up like we had the past week. It is so hard to justify the
last two years performance on a technical basis, and easy to explain it as the
sloshing around of vast pools of money, low cost or even free piles of cash that
are redirected into the equities and force the share prices higher. No matter the
news, risks of default, or technical setups the market surged higher, but on light
volume, so I would expect the 'smart' money to be selling here, and the 'dumb' money
to race in to buy at the top once again, like so many times in the past.
There is one tremendous caveat to my suspicions of a major correction bearing down on us,
It is year three of a first term president, and look out for all stops being pulled out,
to satisfy Obama's demands for SOME kind of recovery...
Only a balloon can ride on Air!! An economy must have support - support requires substance
Looks like a split vote, 50% think a reversal, 50% think we continue down.
When an air balloon is supported by heat, it rises. Remove the heat and it decsends. QE provided the heat, now we shall see the effect. Recall the results of ending QE1. Why shuld we anticipate a different result? Markets down, commodities down, (have cash on hand to buy gold and silver next Sept.) Interest rates may be pushed up by the bond vigilanties. We sahll see.
Greece riots, China worried about US and US cannot agreeat the senate. One more world situation and we are goin down.
Problems = Downslide.
Time to liquidate.
I've been tracking a simple correlation for a few years now. not only did it signal this turnaround, but it did so very strongly, suggesting the rebound is a trend not a sudden reversal. that not to say a continued rapid advance for very long, but only that a correction will not occur. we'll see. I've never traded on this indicator btw.
carter worth of oppenheimer called it perfectly
It looks like the majority think the uptrend is over next week - that probably means it will continue....
It's not a reversal, it's just a (BIG) bump.
For those of you that are familiar with Martin Armstrong's economic model based on Pi he predicted a long term bull market will begin on June 16th 2011. I expected, prepared and profited from last weeks rally.
I expect major correction of DJ next week since DJ has already posted major gain 600 point during last 5 days. The US economy is still far away from recovery.