Hello fellow traders everywhere. Adam Hewison here co-founder of MarketClub with your weekend trading update for the week ending on 7/08/11.
Despite a very scary jobs report last Friday the S&P managed to close out the week with a meager gain of .30%. The big star of the week had to be silver, which jumped 8.35% to its best levels in several weeks. Gold followed course with an impressive gain of 3.79%.
One market we closely watch and have talked about many times before, is the Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index. This Index is made up of raw commodity prices. Included in the index is crude oil which tacked onto last weeks gains with a solid 1.82% gain. However the overall index was up 2.16% and confirmed the bullish engulfing line we talked about in last weekend's report. An important low is now in place for this index. The Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index is the best indicator we have for detecting signs of inflation. It is also Ben Bernanke's worst nightmare, its the one index he won't quote or even talk about. This is a critical week for this index and it should be watched closely.
Here's what happened last week in the major markets….
S&P500 +.30%
Silver +8.35%
Gold +3.79
Oil +1.82%
$ Index +1.05%
CRB Index +2.16%
If you haven't watch our 1 PM updates, I recommend you take a look on this blog at some of our earlier postings.
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Employment figures as a gauge to measure the macro-economic health is like revenue figures for a company. You can spend, cut, and move the shells around however you wish, but at the end of the day, you need jobs to create sustainable economic growth. Jobs are the revenue of any Country... creating taxes, reducing crime and social depression, etc. Until we see US employment rise and jobs created at the private sector level, we're not in a "recovery" despite what economists may tell you.
LOOK EVERY MAN MADE INVESTMENT IS A CON THAT WAS MADE FOR EVERYONE TO SAVE AND PUT INTO AND THEN THE BIG BOYS RAIDED THEM 401S, BILL CLITON GAVE THEM THE GOLDEN PARASHOUTS,THEY MADE THERE OWN BONOUS STOLE ALL YOUR MONEY.LOOK BEAR STERNS,LEHAM BROTHERS,AIG,FANNIE MAE, FREDDY MAC, CITI GROUP,GENERAL MOTORS,AND OTHERS ARE FALLING APART.WE HAD THE DEEPEST STOCK MARKET DECLINE SINCE 1931,THE MOST SIGNIFICANT REAL ESTATE BUST ON RECORD .LARGEST CORPORATE FINICIAL FAILIARS OF ALL TIME, THE NATIONS LARGEST BANKS ARE IN A TAIL SPIN.. THE FEDICAL DEFCIT IS OVER 2 TRILLION. HEY GUYS AND GALS ITS OVER! THE BABY BOOMERS ARE FINISH. I BEEN INVESTING IN GOLD AND SILVER FOR 30 YEARS. BOUGHT KURGRANS AND SILVER FROM $4.00 SILVER BARS AND $300.00 KURGRANS. ITS THE ONLY INVESTMENT THAT GOVERMENTS CANT PRODUCE OUT OF THIN AIR AND CONTROL.NOW CHINA IS INVESTING 1 TRILLON DOLLARS INTO OUR STOCK MARKET ,BLUE-CHIP COMPANYS.CHINA WANTS THERE I.O.U,S BUT NOT IN TREASUARY,S OR BONDS.THE NEXT MARKET TO FALL APART IS THE BOND MARKET.THEN WE WILL BE WALKING AROUND HOLDING OUR ---.
We need to bring back the CCC and the WPA. Most of our road and bridges and locks and dams were built during this era and are in poor shape and need to be redone. Everyone that is healthy enough to work will have a job. No more government hand out where politicians use the tax payers money to buy votes to get elected. No more professional politicians. They should be required to have a job in the private sector for at least ten years before running for public office.
Give more tax breaks to the wealthy. They have more money to invest in business and create jobs than poor people. Let it be known that the government does not make one dollar of profit. It is all at the taxpayers expense. We need to get rid of the ten layers of politicians that are draining the country and cranking out rules and regulations to choke business and put us at a competitive disadvantage.
Hunger motivates. Working crappy jobs makes an individual want to get more education and skills to get a better job. Being wealthy is not a sin. The idea that everyone is entitled to everything at the rich folks expense is just plain bunk. Forget the Robin Hood concept that the politicians are selling. Learn how to do something. If you cant find a job- create one. Save your money.Invest Raise your rates. Work hard for 50 or 60 years. Enjoy the satisfaction of your accomplishments.
Jake
Excellent points!!! A consumption tax taxes what we consume...other taxes tax what we produce. The tax emphasis obviously should be on consumption, not production.
Punitive taxes on society's "makers" make society's "takers" feel better, but it's counter productive.
Which sales office punishes its best sales people with lower commissions the more they sell? NONE! Yet, our "progressive" tax system punishes us more for the more money we make, to the point that it now makes sense for the business leaders to simply leave the country.
Those who have the ability to leave (the rich) are the first to go and can be seen as the canaries in the coal mine of what's coming down the line...the rich leave, then the wealthy, then the well-off, then the upper-middle class, then the middle class. In the end, there are very few makers and a whole bunch of takers, which is obviously unsustainable. The rich individuals and corporations have already started to leave and rearrange their affairs to escape US taxes and bureaucracy.
But your point is an excellent one...study after study shows that consumption taxes (sales taxes) are the least disruptive to economic progress. Install exemptions for the poorest of the poor and eliminate all income tax, and running an entire economy on a consumption tax becomes a real -- and preferable -- alternative to the huge income tax industry and government bill collecting we have now.
Heck, throw in a complete moratorium on government bailouts and the US might actually stand a chance of surviving.
To djd
Imposing tariffs will start a trade war, which will create shortages and/or higher prices and will likely lead to depression. The reason corporations are investing and creating jobs overseas is our ridiculous tax structure. We tax all the things we want more of. However, the more you tax something, the less you will get of it. We tax production, income, capital investment and wages; all things we want more of but get less of. Corporations don't absorb taxes, they pass every dime of them on to consumers in the form of higher prices. That allows import prices to rise to the price of domestically produced goods and still be competitive.
A better form of taxation is to eliminate all those other taxes and only tax consumption. That way, the price of domestically produced goods will exclude those embedded income and payroll taxes and prices will be lower compared to imports by approximately the taxes no longer charged up front.
The result will be more USA jobs and lower prices on which consumption taxes will be paid, but taxes are paid on BOTH imports and domestic goods. Same effect as a tariff, but without the trade war.
Consumers would only pay taxes when THEY CHOOSE to buy something new. We would broaden the tax base to include criminals and tax cheats. When they by a BMW they will pay their fair share of taxes. Everyone would pay the same rate, but it would still be progressive if we exempt everyone from the tax up to the poverty level. We would also eliminate the tyranny of the IRS (yay!) and about $300 billion of tax compliance costs every year.
@djd
In capitalism there is no "cheap labor", just as in trading there is no "cheap" or "expensive" trades. The labor cost to manufacture a good is what it is. If they can do it cheaper somewhere else, then that's the cost.
For 200 years, that worked in America's favor and they prospered...now it's America's Achilles heel.
In America people became addicted to the idea that they should get $50,000/year, a new vehicle every two years, a house with no money down, "free" health care, and a new plasma TV for pushing a button in a factory.
That's not reality, and as any successful trader knows, if you live in a fantasy world, you WILL go broke.
And now that the majority of Americans (51%) don't pay income tax, America is in big trouble. Now the majority of voters have no skin in the game, and as Scottish essayist Alexander Tytler predicted 200 years ago, democracies eventually fail when the majority starts to live off the largesse of the state. He said getting to that point typically takes about 200 years.
America is 235 years old, the majority now live off the state. Sounds like a recipe for the next stage: economic failure, anarchy, and the rise of a dictator.
Do the math...it is impossible for the US to pay back the money it has borrowed. Absolutely impossible, even if taxes were raised to 80% and nobody left the country to escape the taxes (that's already happening in droves at 35% corporate tax rates, by the way), it cannot be paid back. And by the way, those companies that are leaving aren't unpatriotic. It's the state that screwed it up by turning against the exact principles that made the US the land of opportunity for the last 200 years. Companies are now headed to Switzerland, China, Singapore, Indonesia and others because those countries have what the US had before it became clogged with government interference and petty politics. I mean federal legislation to dictate the volume of television commercials? Come on...what business does the government have legislating minor inconveniences? They've clearly lost their way.
This is what the slow death of a powerful nation looks like.
Comment by Jack
I like Silver Held still in the ground...
check symbol SSRI.
Sorry Adam - you're dead wrong. Like so many boomers (like me) that believed that we had a representative democracy and that we had unlimited opportunities - we are WRONG. We allowed ourselves to be sold into decining jobs, wages, and standard or living and were seduced into over-consumption by the mega-corporations. Mega corps are soul-less. They push through legislation - like "free trade" that is not free for us - giving us cheap products as long as we keep consuming them. But the megas hunt out cheap labor, no taxes, and no environmental restrictions, and even worse - stupid corrupt governments that pay them money and provide incentives for "jobs" that rarely last a generation. Look at this chart. http://www.businessinsider.com/details-from-the-awful-june-june-jobs-report-2011-7 It tells the true story. I've done 5 startups in my life, all tech, networking, and IT. Will not do another because it will be copied and over-run by big corps with foreign labor. And, what jobs do you expect small USA business to create - pizza shops, restaurants, plumbers, painters - look around the big corps will kill any small startup in minutes. How can they - becuase they have unlimited access to capital from the Fed, the bankstes, the brokers and the hedge funds. We are on the path to international wage equalization. This is only the beginning. And the only way to change direction is with big tarriffs and that is not going to come from the current 535.
What 18K jobs? The prior two months were adjusted downward. Guess Michele's diet dictates are lowering fast food consumption & Mickey D deferred hiring?
I'm using your guidance for commodities especially relating to Gold and Silver. I had a position in silver AGQ ETF since the beginning of July, 2011. The price per share had fluctuated like a pendulum but your comments about silver had made me to beleive that down trend in Silver is short lived. I had stay calm during down trend. Now the time had come to get REWARD for patience. Thank you very much for keeping me in the game.
s
What to do, you tell me.You see biger picure, I just try to survive.By the way, can you install spell check?