Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Friday, the 5th of October.
Don't fight the FED, why? Because the deck is stacked against you and the FED holds all the cards.
Today we received a major reversal signal based on our Trade Triangle technology that I will share with you in today's video.
Did you vote in our poll on the debate?
One year ago today Steve Jobs, the iconic founder of Apple, passed away. He built Apple into the world's most valuable company and also had the vision to transform complete industries and make the world a better place. Thank you, Steve.
Watch this wonderful tribute to Steve on Apple's home page.
Fifty years ago today the iconic James Bond movies series debuted on British screens. I am guessing that Ian Fleming, who created the fictional character of James Bond, had no idea that his master spy would become such a legendary film character and the most successful film franchise in history.
QUICK TAKE ON THE MARKETS:
EQUITIES: Higher for the week. We are sticking to our Trade Triangle analysis and we have an upside target of $1,550 on the S&P 500 sometime next year.
CRUDE OIL: Lower for the week. Mixed trend picture, while the long-term trend is positive for crude, the intermediate-term trend remains negative based on our Trade Triangle technology.
EURO: Higher for the week. All Trade Triangles are green and are bullish for the Euro.
GOLD: Higher for the week. All Trade Triangles are green and are bullish on gold.
COPPER: Higher for the week. All Trade Triangles are green and are bullish on copper.
SILVER:Higher for the week. All Trade Triangles are green and are bullish on silver.
WILD CARDS: The general election, "the Fiscal Cliff", Europe, Syria, and Turkey.
Now, let's analyze the major markets and stocks on the move using MarketClub's Trade Triangle Technology.
Hi Adam, just needed to know where I will be able to find the CRB Index, now that it has been replaced with Euro?
thank you.
Brutus
Brutus,
Unfortunately the CRB has been delisted by the exchange and is no longer traded. Please see below.
Best,
Jeremy
Effective immediately the Exchange will delist all currently listed expiration months in the Reuters Jefferies/CRB Index Futures contract, and will cease listing new expiration months for the contract. The contract months being delisted have no outstanding open interest.
Also effective immediately the Exchange will cease listing new expiration months for the CCI Index futures contract. The November 2012 and the January, February and April 2013 expiration months (which have outstanding open interest) will continue to be listed until the regular last trading day for the respective contract month.
With the expiration of the last of these contracts on April 12, 2013 the CCI Index futures contract will be effectively delisted. In the event that open interest in any of these CCI expiration months goes to zero before the last trading day of the contract month, that expiration will be delisted by the Exchange at that time.
**Update – The cash index related to the RJ/CRB Index Futures was delisted effective 28 September 2012. The CCI cash index will also be delisted as soon as the CCI Futures contracts cease to exist**
https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/092512ExNotCCI_CRB.pdf
Why did they get rid of the CRB index? Is this another attempt by the Fed to divert the attention away from creeping inflation?
Costco La-Quinta, CA. out of fuel
$5 a gallon?
http://www.mydesert.com/viewart/20121005/BUSINESS/310050069/Inland-Empire-gas-prices-spike-California?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Frontpage
Canadian federal government have partly resolved its sovereign debt, not so for most provincial and municipal goverments. US ferderal government have not yet been affected by the level of its high debt level, because US$ is still the world reserve currency and the unit of exchange, principally oil, states goverments have been affected for the past years by their loose spendings. Whoever wins the presidency, whoever wins the congress, whoever wins the senat, will during their 4 years mandate hit the wall of the accumulated debt, so big that it cannot be repaid at the present $ value by the next several generations unless it is devalued. The concequence of devalued $ will stop world trades, bring sovereing bankrupcies, financial instability, lower personnal standard of living and chaos all over the world. On the other hand Canada will benefit from higher prices for commodities, and material.
Adam called our attention to the FXI's monthly green triangle today. This suggests to me that when China returns from vacation next week they will start to stimulate like gangbusters. This could propel our market and the metals higher, we'll see...
However, it also calls to mind a play on this, a stock that I profited from on the downside in this 'bull market' recently. That is Expediters of Washington, EXPD. It is wave 3 bearish, and it makes smooth moves from one end of the Bollinger Band to the other.
It is a Fed-Ex type company with a lot of business in Asia, and, for me, it was a play on the global recession.
I bought puts on it when it started going down, and took profits prematurely on a 'dead cat' bounce when it was oversold with a gravestone doji. It continued to go down another point or so after that bounce.
It is currently oversold, but the stochastics are embedded suggesting a 'locked in' trend. I have been waiting for it to bounce to the 18 day and 50 day moving averages near 37. Currently, its lower BB is 34.42, the 4 and 9 day MA's are flattening out at 35.33 and 35.85, respectively. It received a weekly TT at 36.01 on 10/01 for a score of -100, and it made a swing line low at 35.02 on 10/03, and the most recent swing line high was 36.86 on 10/03. By the time it bounces to the 18 day MA, it may be below that recent swing line high which would be a good place to short with a stop just above 36.86.
However, if China stimulates it could conceivably rally to the upper BB. As stated before it tends to move up or down without much choppiness. It looks like a good channel stock.
CORRECTION: Swing line high of 36.86 was on 9/27
ADDENDUM: I cannot get the stochastics on our charts to reflect accurate readings, I use another chart service for that information. I use the settings 14, 3, 5 to get the correct morphology of the K and D lines, but they are still off considerably. The default settings are not correct.
Adam,
Very good comments on the video today today. I was wondering if when you talk about copper if that includes the other base metals that are normally used by the same industries such as Zinc, lead and a host of others (etf >>dbb). Keep up the good work.