Each week Lo
ngleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.
Weekly Gold Report 11-12 through 11-16
We begin this week in a light volume trade as the United States recognizes Veterans Day across the country. While the Gold Futures trade inside Fridays range, the market appears poised for higher prices this week.
After collapsing on the first and second day in November, the market has shown strength on a day to day basis. Fundamentally, all markets had to deal with a heated Presidential Election in the United States. The expectation was that a win by Barack Obama would help underpin Gold prices, as his policies would continue to give Ben Bernanke freedom to devalue the US Dollar through Quantitative Easing. Surprisingly, the US Dollar and Gold rallied side by side last week, which caught many traders off guard, but was welcomed by market bulls. This decoupling is not something that we see every day, which probably explains Gold’s cautious rally throughout last week’s trade. One can only wonder how high the price could have gone if the Dollar was down last week!
Now that the Election has passed, traders are continuing to watch for a final decision on the next bailout payment in Greece along with the potential for Spain to cave in and request a much needed bailout of their own. We will also follow news on the heated debate surrounding the looming fiscal cliff in the United States. Over the weekend, politicians from both sides of the aisle expressed their willingness to negotiate, but the final decision is ultimately what matters most.
Historically, November is a good month overall for Gold prices. Outside of the first and second day, the market has seen higher lows and higher highs after filling the gap on the daily chart (see arrow #1). Additionally, prices broke and closed outside of the downward range that has held Gold down since hitting an $1800 high (see arrow #2). This is also seen as bullish. I will be looking for Gold to try to hold above the high price set on November 1st around $1715 first, but if that is breached next support would be a retest of the resistance trendline of the downward range. As long as Gold can stay above and outside of the downward range, the bulls will remain in control.
I remain optimistic for Gold to try to trade to and through $1750 this week. It behaved last week (for the first time in a long time) like a “flight-to-safety” vehicle which definitely caught me off guard. But rallying despite a stronger US Currency has me thinking that Gold Bugs are getting ahead of the game before a nice rally. Odds are that the Europeans will bring something to the market this week, after the US was in the spotlight last week. Any “can kicking” statement regarding Greece should rally the Euro and drop the US Dollar from last week’s highs. This will give all of the traders that bought Gold last week and chewed their fingernails off a reason to breathe a collective sigh of relief.
Good luck this week and as always, please feel free to call or email my office with any questions or comments regarding this piece. Also, please keep in mind that Long Leaf Trading is offering lowered commission rates on all new accounts opened in the month of October. This applies to all new accounts, whether Gold is the focus or not. Please contact Brian Booth directly by phone at (888) 272-6926 or by email at
bb****@lo*************.com
Thank you for your interest,
Brian Booth
Senior Market Strategist
bb****@lo*************.com
888.272.6926
"The US Dollar and Gold rallied side by side last week, which caught many traders off guard, but was welcomed by market bulls. This decoupling is not something that we see every day, which probably explains Gold’s cautious rally throughout last week’s trade. One can only wonder how high the price could have gone if the Dollar was down last week"
The dollar index is becoming irrelevant.
All the currencies measured in the index have a sickness, if there not dependent on high commodity prices, they are dependent on QE.
We need a better index that measures PPP - purchasing power of paper
Marcus,
Thanks for the reply. I pointed this out because it was the first time in a while that we saw these two moving together. The injection of freshly printed money over the last several years has thrown off what are normally very dependable relationships in the markets. One of the first lessons I remember from Economics class in high school was the theoretical inverse relationship between stocks and bonds overall.............that's even out the window!
These days it is best to have a fundamental basis for your trade, but designing the risk and reward based on sound technical analysis. The stories and reports that try to explain the day to day movement will cause most to suffer from what I like to call "paralysis from analyisis". It can be numbing.
Keep in touch
Brian
..............for the investors rather than for traders-buy pm in dips and stash it away.I mean fysical stuff.Youĺl won´t regret it.Martin Goldbug