We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Precious Metal Futures-- The precious metals in New York this week are slightly lower ending on a negative note this Friday afternoon with gold down $1 dollars at 1, 714 an ounce, down $16 for the trading week still trading below its 20 day moving average of 1, 713 and still trading significantly above its 100 day moving average at 1, 682 still kind of stuck in a sideways trend. Gold futures are still 5% below the contract highs in the December contract which happened on 2/29/12 at 1, 801 an ounce and has been trading in the high 1600s the low 1700s for several weeks now despite the fact that there could be a fiscal cliff coming up in about 45 days which generally would push up prices as a flight to quality, however this week that was not the case as investors basically are selling everything. Silver futures for the week were only down about $.30 currently trading at 32.32 an ounce down about $.35 this Friday afternoon still stuck in a sideways non-trendy pattern while trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average and I’m advising traders at this point to sit on the sidelines in silver and gold because there really is no trend in sight. Copper futures for the December contract basically unchanged this week, however this Friday afternoon trading down about 100 points at 344.70 a pound still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average but is still up about 5% from contract lows of 326.25 which happened on 6/4/12 in my opinion I think is headed due to a major slowdown across the globe as well as higher taxes here in the United States which should push copper back down into the low 300s in the next couple of weeks. Platinum futures for the January contract are basically unchanged for the trading week although down about $15 this afternoon while still trading below its 20 day moving average. The precious metals have been drifting lower in the last week due to the fact that the U.S dollar has made a 9 week high against the Euro currency as well as the Japanese Yen which is down over 300 points in two days hitting fresh new lows against the dollar which is also putting pressure on the stock and commodity markets across the board.
Grain Futures-- The grain futures this week took it on the chin once again after last Friday’s crop report which showed ample supplies in the soybeans which has absolutely collapsed in the last week trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average down around $.60 for the trading week and on this Friday continuing to make new lows finishing down about $.14 in the January contract at 13.87 and is still about 20% from contract lows and 11.38 which happened on 12/14/11 and in my opinion as I’ve been advising traders in previous blogs I do believe soybeans are headed lower I believe they will head back into the low 12s and then chop around in that area going into spring time. Corn futures are right near a five month low breaking out of an 8 week consolidation in early only to reverse and finish higher by 5 cents still remaining below its 20 and 100 day moving averages trading down around $.15 for the week. Wheat futures for the December contract have broken out of a major 14 week consolidation and are down about $.50 for the week and on this Friday trading at 8.34 a bushel breaking out and in my opinion is also I’ve stated in many previous blogs I’m advising you to be short the wheat market with a stop above the 10 day high as I think applies are adequate across the world with an economic slowdowns as well as a fiscal cliff on the horizon which could put United States in a recession while grain prices are still historically ridiculously too high in my opinion. The soybean complex including soybean meal which continues to slide and is still a very high price historically at 428 a ton and definitely could be back down around 350 a ton in the next couple of months especially if South America produces a record crop and at this point the crop looks terrific and that will be harvested in February and March while soybean oil continues to make contract lows once again today very little demand for any oilseeds across the globe pushing prices significantly lower in the last three months to come in my opinion. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Energy Futures--- The energy futures are higher once again in New York this afternoon with crude oil climbing up another $1.25 a barrel in the January contract trading in 86.55 trading right at its 20 day moving average but still under its 100 day moving average still right near a 7 month low in a bottoming process over the last 3 weeks while heating oil is still at a 4 month low in the December contract trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average down around 200 points for the trading week also in a sideways bottoming pattern. Unleaded gasoline is right near a 3 week high in the December contract with a possible double bottom that happened in the last couple weeks at 2.55 a gallon while tensions in the mid-east have prompted up energy prices in the last couple of days while many commodities including the stock market have been selling off. Natural gas futures for the December contract are trading above the 20 and 100 day moving averages trading higher by 8 points at 3.90 up about 26 points for the week on some optimism Obama administration will start pushing natural gas is an alternative fuel while also going into the major demand season of winter so I am advising traders in crude oil, gas, and heating oil which are sideways to choppy markets at this point so I would sit on the sidelines until a real trend develops and see if the Israeli conflict actually gets more complicated. The energy market is a very trendy market and during this past year we had great trends on the downside and big moves to the upside and even in the last couple of months crude oil and the products have slid pretty dramatically but at this point there could be a bottom especially with all of the bad news that is been coming in about the economies around the world and with tensions in the Middle East especially with the problems with Iran and in my opinion I do believe that will be a major problem in the next 3 to 4 months which could send prices up dramatically if tensions escalate.
Stock Futures--- The S&P 500 this week saw large price swings with high volatility on major concerns of the fiscal cliff raising taxes for Americans next year while cutting spending sending the S&P lower this week by nearly 20 points currently trading at 1350 below its 20 and 100 moving average hitting a fresh 4 month low with excellent chart structure continuing its bearish grind looking at the next major support around 1320 which would be a 10% decline from the high. NASDAQ futures for the December contract were down about 40 points this week basically unchanged for the trading day settling right around 2540 area hitting a fresh six-month low on the fact that Apple Computer has dropped about 180 points from recent highs which is putting pressure on many technology companies. Many analysts are blaming the fiscal cliff for the reason why the stock market continues to go lower but if you look at Apple Computer its telling you that there is a slowdown worldwide which is causing its stock price to decline not the fiscal cliff, however if the fiscal cliff does get messy we could head a lot lower in the stock market in my opinion. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down around 200 points this week hitting a fresh 4 month low trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average continuing its bearish momentum looking at the next major support right around 12,300 which in my opinion could happen next week. If you remember last year I believe we had 8 consecutive down days in the S&P before Thanksgiving right around 1150 and then the S&P exploded to the upside until recently so we’ve come a very far distance in 12 months and if Congress gets their act together I do see higher prices in stocks and commodities in the year 2013. United States companies have $3.5 trillion sitting on the sideline so this is not the same situation as 2008 where corporations needed large amounts of cash so I do think the selloff in the stock market is limited but at this point in time I am still bearish and I think prices are headed lower. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Cocoa Futures--- Cocoa futures this week traded right near a three week high before this Friday afternoon in some profit taking trading lower by around 82 points, however up about 40 points for the trading which is quite an accomplishment if you look across the board in many stocks and commodities they were sharply lower for the week but cocoa the trend finishing above their 20 and 100 day moving averages. Cocoa is in a slow grinding bull market if you look at it on the daily chart it does continue to go higher and had a false breakout last week to the downside and has reversal that tells me I believe in my opinion cocoa prices are headed higher on solid chart structure so you are able to place a stop below the recent lows of around 2358 risking around $600 per contract if you buy the March contract. If the fiscal cliff is resolved you will see a rally in most of the commodities and the stock markets and in my opinion I do believe it will be resolved eventually and will send prices higher however still looks to me that United States will have higher taxes come January 1st and that could be a problem for the stock market and commodity markets regardless if they come up with the final decision. Volatility in the cocoa market is very low at this point generally cocoa has 100 point moves all the time and we have not had a giant move like that might some time so I’m advising traders to respect this market and under trade because you will start to see some problems possibly coming out of the Ivory Coast which will then send volatility much higher for cocoa generally when problems come out of the Ivory Coast prices are volatile to the upside.
Currency Futures-- The currency futures this week were extremely quiet which is very unusual for this sector because generally they are one of the most volatile sectors day in and day out with the dollar index trading slightly higher this Friday afternoon above its 20 day moving average and right at its 100 day moving average hitting a fresh 9 week high against the Euro currency with terrific chart structure and in my opinion as I’ve stated in many previous blogs I do believe the U.S dollar is headed higher from these levels while pushing the Euro currency down this Friday by about 50 points trading underneath its 20 and 100 day moving average right at a two-month low basically unchanged for the week and in my opinion I think you will see increased volatility next week. The British Pound is also a 9 week low with great chart structure continually grinding bear market slightly lower for the week while trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average also pushing down the Canadian dollar which is also trading under its 20 and 100 hundred day moving average right at four month low basically unchanged for the week on low volatility so next week in my opinion you will start to see much larger moves in the currency markets because this will not last for a long time. The big story was the Japanese Yen which is trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average and was down 300 points this week on more monetary easing in Japan in my opinion the Yen looks to continue to go lower as the Japanese economy has been in the dumps from many years. Volatility in the commodity and stock markets this week was very wild, however it had no influence on the currencies but I think the currency market will join the party next week when it in terms of volatility so look for big moves next week and I think the big moves will happen to the downside with the U.S dollar breaking out once again as a flight to safety all due to the fiscal cliff where people are exiting risky assets and heading back into the old greenback. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.
Orange Juice Futures--- Orange juice futures in New York today are rallying up 130 points in the January contract to trade right at 117.50 higher for the 4th consecutive trading session holding support while also hitting a fresh two-week high breaking major resistance at 115 now looking at resistance at 120-125 with traders anticipating that the long bear market in orange juice may be over. Orange juice futures are above their 20 day moving average and now have crossed their 100 day moving average now increasing the odds that a short term bottom is in place in my opinion. Traders are now exiting their short positions and now are going long the market with many buy stops getting hit in the 115 area propelling prices higher. I have been bearish orange juice futures in many previous blogs, however at this point they have held major support and this market has been in a bear market for quite some time but now we are entering the frost season in Florida and I think prices can move higher from these levels so at this time I’m recommending long positions in orange juice with a stop loss below the contract low of 105 risking around 1, 250 per contract if you are wrong .CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Cotton Futures--- Cotton futures in New York today finished higher by 10 points in the March contract currently trading at 72.41 breaking above its 20 day moving average which is at 72.30 hitting a 2 week high and now its heading towards its 100 day moving average which is at 73.62 and if those levels are breached in my opinion that would mark a short term bottom and a possible return to higher prices. Cotton has been higher 4 out of the last 5 trading sessions and is still 27% from its contract high of 98.50 which was hit on 2/6/12 however it is still only 6% from contract lows which was hit on 6/4/12 at 66.85 basically trading sideways looking for a trend to develop. I am not convinced that cotton prices are going higher at this time, however if you are short this market and prices break the 20 and 100 day moving average I would offset my short position because I believe in my opinion that those are bullish indicators that recognize a trend. The commodity markets were generally higher today despite a strong U.S dollar pushing cotton prices slightly higher and with the harvest basically completed which should limit selling pressure as we enter the holiday season. Volatility in cotton at this point is relatively low at this time because we have been basically grinding lower and I do expect volatility to increase once the holiday season is over. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.
Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone # (800) 615-7649
