We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Grain Futures--The grain market was sharply higher this week with soybeans leading the charge nearly $.60 higher trading above its 20 day moving average but still below its 100 day moving average which is at 14.96 which also serves as the next major resistance as weather concerns in South America as well as drought concerns persisting here in the United States Midwestern area propelling prices higher with corn futures for the March contract trading above its 20 day moving average but just an eyelash away from his 100 day moving average which is at 7.42 up over $.20 for the week hitting a 3 week high also continuing its bullish momentum on planting concerns here in the Midwest with certain parts are too dry with a lack of snow. Wheat futures continued their bullish momentum trading above their 20 day moving average but below their 100 day moving average which is at 8.55 a bushel up over $.40 this week at 7.95 nearly higher by $.12 as traders are now exiting short positions and possibly going long this market in case there are weather problems in Kansas which is the United States leading producer of wheat so prices could head back up to the $9 dollar level quickly if the drought persists. I have stated in many previous blogs I was bearish the grain market a couple of days ago and at this point I’m just advising to sit on the sideline and see if a trend really does develop and I would like to see a little better chart structure and prices hit at least 4 week high before I would look to possibly get long and I do believe you might see some consolidation of this latest move in the next week or two. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Precious Metal Futures--- The precious metals were mixed this Friday afternoon, however they had a solid week to the upside with gold up nearly $27 for the trading week finishing higher 4 out of the last 5 trading sessions and in my opinion looks to be going higher in the short term with a possible spike low created a couple weeks back with major resistance between 17 – 1,720 an ounce while it is still trading above its 20 day moving average its 100 day moving average is at 1, 718 and I think that will be broken in the next couple of weeks. Silver futures were up 5 straight trading sessions trading above its 20 day moving average but still below his 100 day moving average which is right at 32.64 and in my opinion I believe silver prices will break that level in the next week or two finishing nearly $1.50 higher for the week hitting a 3 week high with major resistance at 33 – 34 and I do believe that the precious metals are entering another leg of their bull market. Copper futures were slightly higher today trading at 3.6745 a pound in the March contract trading above its 100 and 20 day moving average receiving strength from a strong housing market which looks to continue for years to come pushing copper prices right near recent highs. The story in the last couple weeks has been platinum and palladium with platinum futures down $25 today at 1, 675 now trading below gold but earlier in the week was trading higher than gold which has not happened in quite a while after finishing up 8 days in a row hitting profit taking today as traders started liquidating some positions and booking profits with major resistance at contract highs of 1, 700 and in my opinion I do not believe the top has been made and platinum prices I think will make a run towards $2,000 an ounce. Palladium futures which have been on the run lately hitting contract highs and new yearly highs as well were also lower by 400 points today closing at 722 receiving support from strong automobile industry which is propping up demand for platinum and palladium. The commodity markets in my opinion are all turning bullish and I think you will see higher prices, especially with crude oil prices nearing $100 dollars a barrel and the S&P 500 hitting a 5 year high so I think demand for many of these products will start to boom. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Energy Futures--- The energy futures in New York continue their bullish momentum this week with crude oil trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a 4 month high this week trading higher by $1.00 before settling unchanged today currently trading in the February contract at 95.40 with the next major resistance at the contract high which was hit on September 14th of last year at 101.70 and in my opinion with economies improving around the world especially the U.S economy I do believe crude oil prices are headed higher. Heating oil futures are trading at 309.20 up 200 points for the trading week still stuck in a sideways trading range trading above its 20 day moving average right at its 100 day moving average with really no trend in sight while the strength of this complex is clearly crude oil at this point in time as we exit the winter season in about 6 weeks when demand for crude oil will rise and it weaken for heating oil. Unleaded gasoline in the March contract is trading at 280.30 still far above its 20 and 100 day moving average up 500 points for the week and its right at major resistance at 281 and looking to break that level and hit the contract high which was also on September 14th of last year at 2.875 and I do believe those prices will be breached here in the next couple of weeks. As I’ve stated in previous blogs I am bullish crude oil and unleaded gasoline I am also bullish many of the other commodities because I think demand is starting to rise globally and you’re going to see commodities join the stock market to the upside here in the next couple of months in my opinion. Natural gas futures continue their bullish run today up another 8 points at 3.57 in the February contract now rallied nearly 50 points in a little over a week on the fact that the Midwest is going to see some arctic cold starting on Monday as traders who were short around 3.10 just over a week ago and now are scrambling to cover pushing prices up to a 1-month high. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Cocoa Futures--- Cocoa futures in New York this week traded in a tight range still above its 20 day moving average barely but below its 100 day moving average which stands at 2431 with a possible rounding bottom taking place on the daily chart hitting a 3 week high in yesterday’s trade but still right above the contract low and major support at 2207. The crops in Malaysia and Indonesia at this point are doing progressing well also with demand waning in the United States and Europe due to the economic situation is keeping a lid on prices in recent months, however this week prices are going finish up slightly currently trading at 2290 and what appears to me is a possible rounding bottom with major support only about 80 points away so I’m advising traders if your bullish on cocoa prices by a futures contract here in place a stop below the contract low allowing you to only risk around $700 per contract which I think is a relative good risk reward situation if you are right and cocoa has truly bottomed. The next major resistance in cocoa is 2450 and then after that 2550 so cocoa prices still could go quite a distance higher especially if some of the soft markets start to bottom such as sugar, orange juice, cotton, and the coffee market which could lend support to this commodity as well. The chart structure on the daily chart in cocoa is outstanding allowing you to place tight stops minimizing your risk if you trying to take a shot on the upside and good traders from my experience always like to see tight consolidations therefore allowing minimal risk. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com Skype Address: mike.seery3
Orange Juice Futures--- - Orange juice futures for the March contract are up nearly 300 points today hitting a fresh 2 week high on optimism that prices may have dropped to quickly and may have been overdone to the downside as many commodities are starting to rally once again and is currently trading at 115.15 also higher by about 400 points for the trading week and basically has been trading sideways after a large price decline from 145.00 to present day prices with major support at 1.10 still trading below its 20 which is at 118.15 and the 100 day moving average. The weather has been very strange in the United States with the Midwest lacking snowfall, however the West Coast has hit record low temperatures and it has been cold in California as well where citrus crops could be affected, however at this point there are no losses reported but the weather in Florida remains beneficial and harvest is underway at this point in time. In my opinion I do think that prices are in a bottoming pattern right now at major support and I do think if you’re a longer-term investor these prices might be very attractive down at these levels over the course of time. If you’re looking at possibly enter a trading position on the long side my recommendation would be to buy the futures contract for the March delivery and place a stop below the contract low which is 106.75 which was hit 10/31/12 we are still about 5% from hitting those contract lows placing a stop there would approximately risk around $1,200 per contract if you are wrong on the trade remembering to always try and minimize risk. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Cotton Futures--- Cotton futures in New York made new highs this week trading up about 250 points and now trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average closing last week at 75.62 and hitting a new 8 month high this week as exports are soaring with the sale commitments year to date already at 82% of the USDA forecast for the entire year which is pushing prices higher. Cotton futures on the daily chart has great chart structure to the upside and in my opinion I still believe cotton prices are headed into the low 80s here in the next couple of weeks due to the fact that demand is picking up tremendously and there’s going to be a tough decision during the springtime of what crop will be planted because there are several others like corn, soybeans, and wheat which might be more profitable for the farmers so you could see a very light planted cotton crop historically unless the price rally significantly forcing farmers to plant more. Cotton currently is trading in the March contract at 78.25 up around 50 points for the trading day continuing its bullish momentum with the grain market the last week and in many of the commodities and in my opinion a possible bottom in many of the softs such as coffee, orange juice, and possibly cocoa which is lending support to the entire sector. Cotton futures in early February of last year traded as high as 98.50 so we are still a good distance away from the contract highs and traded as low as around 65.50 and I do not believe you will see cotton prices down at those levels for a long time. If you look at cotton on the yearly or weekly chart it has tremendous chart structure bottoming at 65 and then bottoming several months ago at 70 continuing its up move so I’m advising traders at this point in time to get long the cotton market making sure that you do place a stop loss in case you are wrong trying to minimize your risk to 1 or 2% of your account balance on any given trade. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Sugar Futures--- Sugar futures in New York this week are down about 75 points retesting contract lows at 18.31 hitting 18.33 in yesterday’s trade before rebounding slightly before finishing around unchanged currently trading at 18.42 in the March contract. Sugar futures are still trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average closing last week at 19.17 but then reversed to retest major support at 18.31 near 2 ½ year lows and in my opinion if prices are broken at that level you have to think that a bear market is still underway in sugar. Many of the soft commodities have rallied in recent weeks but sugar is trading in a sideways and lower pattern, however in my opinion with high corn prices and high crude oil prices I think if you’re a longer-term investor sugar prices look very attractive to me at these levels. Sugar has been in a bear market for over 2 years now after hitting multi-year highs in 2010, however prices can rally quickly on any weather problems down in Brazil or just the fact that demand might come back to this market like it is in cotton, crude oil, and the grain market. If you are looking to get long this market and take a chance at picking a bottom buy 1 March futures contract at 18.47 and place a stop loss at 18.27 risking around $220 per contract limiting your risk if you are wrong on the trade. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Coffee Futures--- Coffee futures in New York this week are higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session now trading above its 20 day moving average and only an eyelash away from his 100 day moving average which is at 160.50 hitting a fresh 8 week high with a possible rounding bottom taking place in the last several weeks as traders are now thinking a bull market is underway in coffee prices. Coffee futures for the March contract are up 400 points this week continuing their bullish momentum grinding higher with outstanding chart structure with the contract low of 141.25 and as I’ve stated in many previous blogs I have been bullish coffee prices and I do believe they are headed higher possibly into the 170s in the next couple of weeks due to the fact that demand is starting to come back into this commodity and many other commodities as well. I believe if coffee can break the 161.00 level which is the 100 day moving average I believe you will start to get the large speculators back into this market pushing prices up even higher as they offset their short positions and now are going long or buying the market trading with the new short term trend which is higher at this point while the current crop development down in Brazil has been very positive at this point as beneficial rains are hitting the developing crop, however there have been rumors of rust on trees and leaves and it is possible that Central America and Mexican producers next year could harvest significantly less if they are affected by this disease but at this point in time we still don’t know for sure if it will be affected but in my opinion a bull market in coffee is underway. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.
Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone # (800) 615-7649
