Weekly Futures Recap with Mike Seery

We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Currency Futures--- The U.S dollar this week continued its grinding bear market hitting a fresh 1 year low against the Euro currency down for the 4th consecutive trading session trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average continuing the trend downward and in my opinion I believe the U.S dollar is headed sharply lower in the coming months due to the fact of the constant printing of money from the Federal Reserve and the easy monetary policies of the Obama administration while the Japanese yen continues is unbelievable bearish trend hitting a new 2 ½ year low down 3 consecutive trading days on another 140 points this Friday afternoon at 10809 and as I’ve stated many times in previous blogs I believe the yen is going 105 -100 because the Japanese government is forcing their currency lower to try to spur exports and improve the economy at this point it’s working as the Nikkei is at a 2 year high and has been one of the better stock markets around the world recently after having a 20 year decline and one of the worst stock markets around the globe, however now with the falling yen it is starting to spur growth in Japan. The Euro currency is up for the 4th consecutive trading session hitting a new 1 year high trading up 100 points at 1.3675 and is now been up 6th straight months against the U.S dollar which is the 1st time that has occurred in over 10 years and in my opinion as I’ve also stated in many blogs I believe the Euro is headed 1.40 here in the next month or 2 which will also prop up commodity and stock prices. The chart structure on the U.S dollar is excellent with the constant grinding lower on the daily chart and I do believe the dollar is headed toward 75 in the next couple of months and if you look back at 2007 when the stock market hit all-time highs and the commodities were all-time highs it looks very similar to the current situation once again. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Precious Metal Futures--- The precious metals are ending the week on a positive note with gold climbing $9 an ounce in the April contract at 1, 669 still basically stuck in a sideways pattern settling last Friday at 1, 658 an ounce up around $20 for the week but still really no trend in sight trading right at its 20 day moving average but below its 100 day moving average which stands at 1, 718 and as I’ve stated in previous blogs I am bullish gold and the precious metals sector and I do believe with the U.S dollar continuing to head lower that will push up precious metal prices in the coming months while silver futures are up $.58 this Friday afternoon trading right at $31.93 an ounce trading above its 20 day moving average but below its 100 day moving average which stands at 32.60 after settling last Friday at 30.78 up around $1.10 this week looking to breakout to the upside. Copper futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average in the March contract hitting a 3 ½ year high settling last Friday at 3.65 currently trading at 3.7800 up around 1300 points for the week on the fact that economies around the world are improving which is causing strong demand for copper as well as the housing market becoming strong once again. Platinum and Palladium continue their bullish run especially the Palladium market up another 1000 points at 756 which is new contract high all due to the fact that the automobile industry is on fire which is propping up demand for both of these products while platinum today is up another $16 at 1, 691 still unable to break the 1,700 level but in my opinion I believe that will be broken in the next couple of trading sessions. I am advising traders to be long the entire precious metals sector I think you will see all-time highs across the board in the next couple of months with solid demand and a lower U.S dollar causing prices to continue their bullish trend. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Coffee Futures--- Coffee futures in New York are positive this Friday afternoon trading up around 100 points currently trading in the March contract at 148.00 however still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average still stuck in a sideways trend sitting in a 10 week consolidation looking to breakout to the upside in my opinion. The contract low which was hit on New Year’s Eve at 141.25 and has still held while the most recent high of 155 which was hit 2 weeks ago serves as major resistance and now we are right in the middle of the range and in my opinion I think we are bottoming with the rest of the commodity sector starting to rally so I think coffee will join the party to the upside. I’m advising traders to take a shot and buy coffee placing a stop below the contract low risking around $2400 per contract. The coffee crop in Brazil and in Vietnam are coming along very well, however there are widespread reports of rust on the trees and leaves in Central America which could possibly reduce next year’s crop by as much as 30% if the disease comes to fruition. The chart structure on the daily chart in coffee is excellent allowing you to place close stops if you are wrong trying to minimize risk, however I do believe coffee prices are headed up to the 170 – 180 level by the end of February due to the fact that prices are just too low and all of the bad news has already been digested. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Cotton Futures--- Cotton futures in New York were up around 250 points this week still right near contract highs trading around 83.00 and continuing to trade above their 20 and 100 day moving average while finishing up around 900 points in the month of January all due to the fact that there could possibly be 2 million less acres planted this year because farmers are deciding to plant more corn and soybeans because it is more profitable. The demand for cotton at this point is excellent and that is what is also pushing prices up so you’re going to have lower acres and higher demand so prices might  get as high as 90 during the spring or summer months as I’ve stated in many previous blogs I thought cotton could get up to the mid-80s and prices are there presently but you might see some choppiness and sideways action here in the next couple weeks because if you look at the chart in the last several weeks prices have gone up quickly so it would not surprise me see some sideways action in the next couple weeks, however the trend is higher in cotton so I would be looking at call spreads to the upside because the chart structure at this point is terrible because of the fact that it has gone straight up in recent weeks. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

If you are looking for a futures or option broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com Skype Address: mike.seery3

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.

Orange Juice Futures--- Orange juice prices were higher by 900 points this week and have traded higher for the 6th consecutive trading session in New York today climbing another 150 points currently trading in the March contract at 122.50 hitting a fresh 4 week high as traders are now thinking that a bottom has been formed when orange juice prices bottomed at 110 which is also major support so now you’re looking at resistance all the way back up to 135 and possibly making new highs at 145 which is where prices were about a month ago before the big selloff occurred due to the fact that there was no frost in Florida this year. As I’ve stated in many previous blogs I thought that once prices held the 110 level thinking that prices were overdone to the downside so now I believe that prices are headed higher on the fact that most commodities are sharply lower today but orange juice is one of the few that is higher showing some real strength going into spring and summer demand months. The largest producer of orange juices is Brazil and the weather is reported to be very good with normal temperatures and scattered showers and harvest is continuing at a solid pace so an increase in supply could come on the market here in the short term, however that information has already been digested by the market and the trend has turned to the upside so I’m advising and I have been advising traders to be long the orange juice market putting a stop below the contract low of about 106 minimizing your risk in case you are wrong on the trade. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Stock Futures--- The S&P 500 is higher for the 11th time out of the last 13 trading sessions continuing to run towards all-time highs this Friday afternoon up 16 points trading at 1509 on the monthly unemployment report which showed the economy added 157,000 new jobs with the unemployment rate at 7.9% up about 14 points for the week hitting highs that we have not seen in over 5 years as optimism remains in the stock market due to the fact that the debt ceiling was kicked down the road once again until May while the taxes on dividends and capital gains were raised only slightly up but not near as much as was anticipated pushing money back into this sector still trading far above its 20 and 100 day moving average which is always a positive indicator in my opinion. The NASDAQ futures are sharply higher today up 38 points breaking out to a 3 month high still trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average despite the weakness in Apple which is currently trading around $457 a share way off of its highs which is the reason why the NASDAQ is not at the five-year high like the S&P 500 while the Dow futures are up 140 points with the Dow Jones hitting 14,000 for the first time since October 2007 and are trading above the 20 &100 day moving average on optimism that 2013 will be a growth year with possible double digit returns in the stock market once again. In my opinion I am bullish the stock market and S&P 500 and I do believe we will be at all-time highs by Christmas of this year but there could be some bumps in the road in March due to the fact that debt ceiling nonsense is coming back once again but fundamentals are strong and balance sheets are solid and there’s a lot of money on the sideline and I do believe economies around the world are improving and I do believe that the United States economy is very solid at this point which is going to eventually push up stock prices while commodity prices will join the party eventually in my opinion. I do believe that money will start to flow out of the treasuries and be put to work in other sectors such as stocks and commodities with a higher interest rate environment approaching. In the next couple of weeks quarterly earnings will be coming out on a daily basis which will provide short-term direction and in my opinion I do believe that the earnings will be very solid and I think that this market will continue to grind higher here in the short term. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Grain Futures--- The grain futures were mixed  this Friday afternoon with many of the other commodities up on a bullish unemployment report pushing soybeans higher by $.6 in the March contract currently trading at 14.74 trading above its 20 day moving average but still below its 100 day moving average continuing its bullish trend hitting a 5 week high  settling last Friday at 14.41 up around $.33 for the week after hitting a triple bottom earlier in the month and now traders are looking for the rally to continue throughout the spring. Soybean meal in the March contract is trading above its 20 day moving average but below its 100 day moving average hitting a 4 week high today after settling last Friday at 416 a ton currently trading at 428 having another solid week continuing it’s up trend. Soybean oil is hitting a 4 month high up 3 days in a row settling last Friday at 52.10 now currently trading at 53.13 all due to the fact of solid demand coming back into this market which is not seen in quite some time. Corn futures for the March contract were up about $.15 this week trading far above its 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a 7 week high trading higher 4 out of the last 5 trading session due to the fact that rumors are circulating that farmers will plant more soybeans this year corn because of the fact that corn can be decimated by  drought as we saw last year but soybeans are an incredibly resilient crop and still had a wonderful year even though the worst drought in  over 60 years hit the Mid-West last summer so farmers are thinking of planting the sure thing which is soybeans. Wheat futures are the weakest of the entire grain complex trading above the 20 day moving average but below their 100 day moving average which stands at 8.44 still stuck in a sideways channel after last Friday settling at 7.79 currently trading at 7.66 down about $.10 for the week with really no trend in sight so at this point in time I’m advising traders to be long the entire grain market except for wheat because I believe commodity prices are headed sharply higher and I do believe grain prices are relatively cheap at this point in time especially if we have any weather problems this spring and so far in Chicago we’ve only received 4 inches of snow continuing the drought of last summer. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Sugar Futures--- Sugar futures have been one of the weakest markets in recent months but have possibly bottomed recently at 18.06 now trading above its 20 day moving average but below its 100 day moving average hitting a two-week high today after last Friday settling at 18.38 and now currently trading at 18.89 with major resistance at 19.17 which was hit on 1 –11-13 and if that level is broken I would have to think that a bottom has been created. Big supplies are coming onto the market out of Brazil which is keeping a lid on prices at this point in time, however unleaded gasoline is up 11 straight days and corn prices are hitting 7 week highs which I think will start to benefit sugar prices because they are relatively cheap compared to those other commodities and they are all used as bio diesels. Once the harvest is done in Brazil and the supply hits the market I think you could see a rally here in the next couple months because I am bullish all of the commodity markets and I think we are having a repeat of 2007 when the stock market and commodity markets went straight up and its seems to be occurring again at this point in time. The chart structure in sugar is excellent allowing you place a tight stop if you’re looking to get long this market you can buy sugar right here at 18.93 and place a stop below 18.06 risking around $900 per contract. TREND: MIXED –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Rounding Top & Bottom Formations---Rounding bottom chart patterns in the commodity markets are considered as a bullish signal which indicates a possible reversal of the current downtrend to a new uptrend and generally takes at least 1 month or longer to form so patient is a virtue when you are looking for rounding bottoms, however these indicators can be profitable because in my opinion they are 1 of the best trading indicators out there. These rounding bottom chart patterns in the commodity markets are a long-term reversal patterns that signals a shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. This pattern can also be used as a rounding top signaling that prices have peaked and look vulnerable to the downside. They are elongated and U-shaped, and are sometimes referred to as rounding turns, bowls or saucers. The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks out above its moving average which also is considered a bullish trading indicator especially if the chart pattern breaks the 20 & 100 moving averages.

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures

Facebook.com/seeryfutures

Twitter–@seeryfutures

Phone # (800) 615-7649

ms****@se**********.com