Month: September 2014

What Is The Greatest Market Indicator In The World?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Now some would argue that fundamentals are the most important element in trading, others might argue that technicals are the most important. It might also be argued that perception is the key to trading.

I would have to say there's a certain element of truth in the fundamentals, the technicals, and perception. But to me, the greatest market indicator in the world is the market itself. You can't argue with the market and win.

In today's example, I'm going to look at crude oil futures (NYMEX:CL.V14.E). I think this is an excellent example of how potential fundamental elements did not play out. When crude oil was trading over $100 a barrel, many were calling for it to go significantly higher based on the turmoil in the Middle East and also what was happening in the Ukraine.

Well, the exact opposite occurred as oil tumbled lower month after month. Now you could stick to your guns and say to yourself that fundamentally I think crude oil is going higher. If you had adopted that strategy no matter how logical it may seem to you at the time, you'd be sitting on a tremendous loss at this present time.

Holding onto losses is not the way to trade in any market, whether it's stocks, futures, foreign exchange, ETFs or precious metals. The name of the game is making money - less we all forget.

The market may fool you every once in a while, but what program or approach doesn't do that? But overall, the market gets it right every time as it is a total of everyone's knowledge. When you have so many brains working for you around the world, how could you not pay attention to what the market is actually doing?

So let's take a look at the October crude oil contract (NYMEX:CL.V14.E) to see how MarketClub's Trade Triangle technology handled the 10% drop over the last few months.

CHART LEGEND
1. All Trade Triangles are red and negative and show a -100 Score.
2. On 7/7/14 the Weekly Trade Triangle indicates a short position at $102.40.
3. RSI moves below the 50 line.
4. RSI now acts as resistance at the 50 line.
5. RSI now acts as resistance at the 50 line.

Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub

Sentiment Shifting for Gold Bugs

Posted on by The INO.com Team

From a post on the HUI at the site last week:

“There are worse things that could happen than filling a gap and scattering the wrong kind of gold bugs back out.  Then it would be up to the longer-term charts to do the heavy lifting if the daily does fulfill this downside potential.”

The gap was filled, the top end of the anticipated support zone was reached and indeed, the wrong [i.e. momentum players] kind of gold bugs are scattering back out.  The hard sell down on Thursday was very likely due in large part to the selling by traders with a fetish about gold as a geopolitical or terror hedge.

We should continue to tune out these people and while we are at it, tune out the ‘Indian wedding season’ and ‘China demand’ pumpers in favor of real fundamentals like gold’s relationship to commodities and the stock market, the Banking sector’s relationship to the broad market, Junk Bond to Quality credit spreads and US Treasury bond yield relationships.

It’s boring stuff compared to all that demand in China, Modi’s pro-gold regime in India and of course how we are all going to go down the drain amidst war, terror and an age of global conflict unless we have a ‘crisis hedge’.  The only terror gold investors should care about is that perpetrated upon paper/digital currencies by global policy makers.

So last week was good in that it blew out those who were hanging on through the 2 month long grind that did indeed turn out to be short-term topping patterns.  I don’t mind telling you that my patience was tested by the bullish spirits, especially on up days with Ukraine in the headlines.  I did not think it would take 2 months to resolve, but every time the sector looked like it would crack, a new geopolitical flashpoint would show up in the mainstream financial media.

That condition is now being closed out.  Taking its place could be a bottom of at least short-term significance (i.e. to a bounce).  We have a fundamental backdrop that is not fully formed and a big picture technical backdrop that has degraded in gold and silver and is not proven in the equities.  So whether we bounce only, go bullish for an extended rally or even bull market, or (and it’s still on the table folks) fail into the ‘final plunge’ scenario, we are dealing in potentials, not confirmed trends.

Moving on let’s check sector sentiment.

st.au.optix

The current hook down in gold’s Optix (Sentimentrader.com’s aggregated Public Opinion data) is correcting recent surges in optimism.  This is coming amidst a small positive trend.  ‘Uh oh, dumb money is getting positive!’ think contrarians anxiously.  But the historical view shows that the Optix rises in the initial stages of a bull market. Continue reading "Sentiment Shifting for Gold Bugs" →

Not Sure About You, But I'm Getting A Little Bit Nervous About This Market

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Yesterday, Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) had its big reveal. Unfortunately for Apple, everything that they revealed was pretty much known before the event. The knowledge was instantly transferred to pressure on Apple's stock price which closed lower for the day after rallying close to an all-time high.

I think the products are all beautifully designed. The iWatch, now known officially as the Apple Watch, is not available until 2015 which means no revenue stream from this new product until next year.

I remember when Apple came out with its first iPad, I said to myself, "this is just like a big iPhone, how are they going to sell that?" Well, it turns out they sold a lot of them and it certainly helped propel their stock to new highs making Apple the most valuable company in the world.

I believe that eventually like the iPad, the Apple Watch will be accepted and people will consider it a necessary item to have for their health and well-being. Continue reading "Not Sure About You, But I'm Getting A Little Bit Nervous About This Market" →

Top Dividend Plays - Stock and ETF

Posted on by The INO.com Team

In this complimentary report, I'll reveal an ETF that's loaded with the best and most consistent dividend paying companies. And here's the best part: all of the companies listed in this ETF have to boast a record of increasing dividends for at least 20 CONSECUTIVE years (NOT A TYPO).

As an added bonus, you'll also receive my favorite dividend stock. This stock boasts a mind-blowing dividend record backed by some of the strongest fundamentals I've ever laid my eyes on.

Free Report: Top Dividend Plays (Stock and ETF)In this report, you'll learn…

  • The identity of the ETF that consists of a "Who's Who" of American businesses!
  • The stock with potential in both Bull or Bear markets that also pays an exceptional dividend!
  • The fundamental and technical data to support my picks.

Enter your name and email address to receive instant access to this complimentary report and daily analysis on all the major markets impacting your portfolio.

Enjoy,




Wayne Burritt
Market Research Contributor
INO.com, Inc.

Do you plan on buying one of Apple's new iPhones?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Today is Apple's big day as it announces new products at 1 pm ET. What Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:APPL) will announce has been the talk and buzz of the tech world for the past several weeks and we want to know what you think.

So here is today's question....

Do you plan on buying one of Apple's new iPhone?

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