Hello MarketClub members everywhere, yesterday brought a change for the DOW indicating a move to the sidelines and a neutral position on this index. There was no change in the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ, both of which remain negative.
Today, I have three stocks for you that I think will do very well in the fourth quarter:
Avis Budget Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CAR)
Juniper Networks Inc. (NYSE:JNPR)
Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. (NYSE:CCE)
In today's video, I will be looking at all three stocks and projecting how high I think they can go from their current levels. I will also show you where to set your stops if, in fact, my analysis is incorrect.
Gold, which turned up a couple of days ago, has had a few days of consolidation that I believe is going to prove to be positive on the upside.
Crude oil also flashed a buy signal, indicating that the market action of the last few weeks was a continuation pattern to the upside. The $50 level is a major psychological barrier for crude oil and if broken will turn all of the Trade Triangles green.
Despite all the bullish news about the US dollar, the Euro continues to be in a positive pattern against the US currency. With all of the Trade Triangles green and in a positive mode, it is hard not to make an argument that the trend is up for this currency.
The fourth quarter is going to be interesting, and I think the Trade Triangles will do very well. Thank you for all of your comments on the blog recently, I appreciate your input and questions.
Stay strong, stay disciplined.
Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub
Hello Adam,
I sincerely hope you, Jeremy, and your associates are all well and prospering.
Toward the end of September, your “Traders Blog” posts were rather consistent in noting that the Dow, S&P, and for the most part the NASDAQ were weak and would likely not regain levels (Dow 16,993.43 and S&P 2,020.86) that would enable them to move higher and recover from August’s breakdowns.
The September 29th listing of “Top 10 ETFs” included leveraged ones that shorted the Dow and S&P, along with SQQQ. I took positions in two that shorted the Dow and the S&P. All their Trade Triangles were green and their Scores were 100. Your discussion of the markets in the latter half of your September 30th post (“Time To Short Apple?”) continued the negative forecasts.
October 2nd market action was dramatic in that a Dow drop of over 250 points (in response to a horrible jobs report?) was promptly reversed to become a 200 point gain. The reversal was around 450 points within the day. This begs the question, “Who came into the equities markets and turned them around?” I cannot make a compelling case that it was normal or routine market traders that accomplished this feat. I am more inclined to suspect the infamous Plunge Protection Team or their cohorts.
Your October 6th post (“A Perfect Day For A Reversal And Some Stocks To Buy”) was a continuation of these consistently unflattering forecasts. Yet the boost provided on October 2nd appears to have goosed the equity markets beyond Dow 16.993.43 and within a hair’s breadth of 2,020.86 on the S&P.
My shorts are hurting, and I wonder whether Market Club’s Trade Triangles can be considered reliable predictors in a market environment where manipulators can swoop in and force markets to turn on a dime somewhat like the reverse of a “Black Swan” event.
I’m not asking for individual investment advice, but it would be nice to know how or why the markets turned so dramatically against Market Club’s forecasts this past week. Unless there is a huge drop tomorrow, this will have badly shaken my confidence.
All the best.
John,
Believe me, I feel your pain!
I recently lost over $25,000 with AlgoTrades, an algorithmic trading service being hustled by a guy named Chris Vermeulen.
Vermeulen shut down his original AlgoTrades rollout from last February and reintroduced a new and improved version with a new name called Investor D30. Of course, Vermeulen does not indict his new system for the first month's 30 % losses since the new rollout of his algorithmic product on Sept 1, 2015, but rather cites the unusual volatility of the recent markets as the culprit. Vermeulen, also known as the Gold & Oil Guy, was indicating in the weeks leading up to the recent rollout of his "new and improved" version of AlgoTrades that the soon to be released upgraded version was "rocking it" with over $8,800 profit in 34 days and this was the last chance to get in. I lost over $13,000 inside of the first month. Wish I would have passed on that last chance to get in!
Chris Vermeulen indicates in a video marketing the new AlgoTrades Investor D30 that his proven system will make money in up, down and volatile markets. Then he refers again to the unusual volatility as the culprit for the "new and improved" rollout's inability to perform.
If it makes you feel any better John, a subscription to AlgoTrades only costs $3997 annually. Believe me, it hurts when you pay somebody almost $4,000 a year to make you money and they lose money instead. And to think I was leaning towards a second subscription to invest up to $300,000 in my self-directed IRA.
I always thought that traders liked volatility and thrived in fast up & down markets. That sure does not appear to be the case in my experience with Chris Vermeulen's AlgoTrades.
In my opinion, again for what it is worth, you are better off with a service like MarketClub where you control your entries, exits and sizing based on your processing of the information presented to you.
Best of luck to you going forward from here,
AlgoFool
Algofool,
Thank you for your feedback. I'm not familiar with that service nor that gentleman. I totally agree with you in spending money to lose money it makes no sense whatsoever.
I strongly recommend that you watch our video "How To Successfully Outwit, Outsmart And Out-Invest The Billionaire Hedge Fund Crowd" that was posted late Friday afternoon. There is no cost to watch the video and even take a free trial to our service that costs a fraction of what that other company was charging.
https://club.ino.com/join/specialtrial/sponsored/?mktcode=bloginternetportfolio10915
Every success with your free trial,
Adam
John,
Thank you so much for taking the time out of your day to detail your experiences. I very much appreciate you doing what you did and sharing it on this blog.
I have to admit, I was surprised at the velocity of the reversal as were many other traders professional and otherwise. Out of the three indices that track the Dow has clearly put us on the sidelines for now. As for the S&P 500 we are also close to making a sideline position necessary.
But let's step back for just about a moment, when we first had a signal to short the Dow it came on June 30 on a monthly Trade Triangle at 17,579.27 that was over 3 months ago. The Dow closed out the week at 17,084.49 that's 494.78 points lower than our original sell signal on 6/30.
On the S&P 500 the monthly Trade Triangle came in on July 7, 2,048. As of the close of business on Friday the S&P 500 stood at 2,014, 34 point lower than our original sell signal on July 7.
On the Nasdaq we had a monthly Trade Triangle signal on August 20 at 4,888.17. The market closed out the week at 4831.50. The close on Friday was 57 points lower than our original sell signal for the Nasdaq.
Please don't misunderstand what I’m saying John, the markets have been extraordinarily volatile. The one thing I would say is ETFs, especially leveraged ETF's can be extremely difficult to trade in my opinion. There can sometimes be liquidity problem and tracking issues but that's not true of all ETF's.
Looking at the indices in general the longer-term trend we consider to still be down, however, it is losing some of its downward momentum. Money-management should always be used and that is something only you know how to do. The key here is not to over leverage and put all your eggs in one basket.
I certainly understand and feel your pain John, if it is any consolation I went through a similar trading experience many, many, years ago. There is not one good trader who hasn’t been taught a market lesson at one time in their trading career. Only by learning from that bad trading experience did I learn to be a good trader.
Every success in the future,
Adam
Adam
Thanks very much for your response. I’m pretty certain that a personable fellow like you could easily find something more enjoyable to do on a Friday evening, even in a small hamlet like Shady Side.
Allow me to elaborate a bit on my earlier post. My purpose was not to complain, but rather to prompt a bit of rational deliberation about whether the tools available to Market Club and its clients are up to the task of protecting us from the sort of extraordinary reversal to the upside we saw last Friday and the hard charging advances of this past week. Let’s face it, the Fed, large money center banks, and “Wall Street” all seem to have huge incentives to promote “healthy” (advancing) equity markets. If and when they intervene via futures contracts or whatever, the markets most certainly respond, and technically focused forecasting tools such as the club’s Trade Triangles cannot possibly predict such exogenous events.
I did not think for a minute that you were asleep or that Market Club’s tools were not performing as designed. I simply suspected the tools were not able to adequately inform clients in such circumstances. The lesson I draw from this is that in light of the Fed’s and Wall Street’s increasing proclivity to intervene to the upside, it might not be feasible to short the broad equity markets at all. Perhaps sectors, industries, or individual stocks are valid short candidates, but the broader markets may have become too risky to short with a Plunge Protection Team or similar entity on watch.
I subscribe to TradeStops and I have my trailing stop alerts set at 5%. I am promptly advised whenever an investment I hold drops 5% or more from its recent highs. This does not force me to act, but it gets me to take a look at what’s happening. I got such alerts last week, but Market Club’s continuing pessimism that the Dow and S&P would likely not recover kept me from selling and limiting my losses as I should have… lesson well and painfully learned.
As always, I wish you, Jeremy, and all the Market Club folks a great weekend and upcoming week. Fall should be bringing some welcome relief from summer’s sweltering heat and humidity around the Chesapeake Bay…
John