Can Silver Futures Crack $30?

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 27.48 an ounce while currently trading at 27.88, up about $0.40 for the week as prices have been stuck in a 2 week consolidation pattern.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 25.85 level, and if you took that trade, continue to place the stop-loss under the 2 week low, which now stands at 27.26 on a closing basis only. The chart structure is outstanding as we are only an eyelash away from getting stopped out.

Silver prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains to the upside. I still think prices will crack the 30 level. I also have a bullish recommendation in the platinum market as I think that will join the party eventually.

I think the entire precious metal sector continues to move higher throughout 2021 as I will be looking at adding more contracts to the upside if prices break the 30 level, so keep a close eye on this market as we could be doubling up in next week's trade as I see no reason to be short.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures in the July contract is trading higher for the 3rd consecutive session, up another 70 points at 119.25 after settling last Friday in New York at 117.95 as prices have now hit a 10-week high.

This commodity has been stuck in the mud over the last couple of months even though I have a bullish recommendation from the 110.00 level as I've been very patient as this has been a very stubborn trade. Still, it is starting to develop at the current time. If you took the original recommendation, continue to place the stop loss on a closing basis only at 99.00 as the proper exit strategy. I will also be looking at adding more contracts if prices close above the 120.00 level, which could happen in today's trade.

Juice prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend has finally broken out to the upside. Historically speaking, this market is very cheap, and I think it could have significant room to run to the upside.

I also have a bullish coffee trade which continues to hit a multi-year high as coffee and orange juice are primarily grown in the country of Brazil as they are suffering weather problems at the current time.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Platinum Futures

Platinum futures in the July contract is currently trading at 1,173 an ounce, ending the week slightly lower after settling last Friday in New York at 1,169 as this precious metal has been unable to join the rally of the rest of the precious metal sector.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 1,254 level, and if you took that trade, continue to place the stop loss at the 1,155 area on a closing basis only. T the proper exit strategy as volatility remains high; therefore, I want to give this trade some room.

Platinum prices are right near a 6 week low with major support around the 1,150 area as that has to hold to keep this bullish momentum going as I still think platinum compared to gold looks cheap and especially compared to the rest of the metals market.

Platinum prices are now trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average, telling you that the trend has turned to the downside. However, this trend has been flip-flopping daily over the last couple of months as I still think higher prices are ahead. The U.S. dollar hit a 3 month low this week as that is generally a supportive factor as this situation is a little baffling, but let's see what the long holiday brings and how prices react on Tuesday.

TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the July contract is ending the week sharply higher up 685 points or 4.41% at 162.20 a pound after settling last Friday in New York at 150.10, continuing its bullish momentum as prices have now hit a 5 year high.

I have been recommending a bullish position over the last couple of months from the 126.00 level, and if you took that trade, continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low, which now stands at 147.45 on a closing basis only as the proper exit strategy.

The chart structure will not improve for another 6 trading sessions, so you will have to accept the monetary risk at this time as this trend is very strong, and if you have been following my previous blogs, you understand that I think the 2.00 level is in the cards so stay long. Fundamentally speaking, concerns about Brazil's coffee crop have fueled fund buying of coffee futures.

Marex Solutions said Tuesday that beans collected thus far from arabica coffee fields indicate well below normal yields. Marx also said low soil moisture might also stunt the development of the 2022/23 Brazil coffee crop.

On Tuesday, Brazil's crop agency Conab projected that in 2021 Brazil's coffee production would fall -23% y/y to a 4-year low of 48.8 mln bags. Conab said coffee output would fall since Brazil's coffee trees are in the lower-yielding half of a biennial cycle because insufficient rain in key stages of crop development exacerbated a decline in yields.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Cocoa Futures

Cocoa futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 2456 while currently trading at 2413, down about 43 points for the trading week still stuck in a tight consolidation pattern looking for some fresh news to create a trend.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 2500 area, and if you took that trade, continue to place the stop loss on a closing basis only at 2317 as the chart structure has improved because prices have gone nowhere.

For the bullish momentum to continue, prices have to break the 2550 area, possibly happening next week's trade. Fundamentally speaking, ample supplies continue to keep a lid on prices here in the short term. The U.S. dollar hit a 3 month low this week as that generally is a fundamental bullish factor going forward. I still think historically speaking prices look cheap, so continue to play this to the upside.

Cocoa prices are trading right at their 20 and 100-day moving average as this trend is mixed as this basically has been a counter-trend recommendation.

TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Cattle Futures

Cattle futures in the August contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 120.92 while currently trading at 118.90, down about 200 points for the week right near a 2 week low.

I have been recommending a bullish position from the 120.10 level, and if you took that trade, continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low, which now stands at the 117.95 level on a closing basis only as the exit strategy.

The chart structure at the current time is outstanding because prices have gone sideways, and I'm a little surprised. I thought this market would join the party to the upside that we've experienced in many different sectors, but this commodity has been stubborn. However, I will not second guess, and I will continue to play this to the upside. Cattle prices are trading right at their 20 and 100-day moving average, telling you that the trend is mixed. I think the downside is limited, but if we are stopped out, move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend.

I believe the spread between hog and cattle prices is too wide, and I've been saying this for quite some time and have been wrong, but I do think cattle prices will start to creep higher and tighten up the spread between the two livestock commodities.

TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Soybean Oil Futures

Soybean oil futures in the July contract, which is considered the old crop, settled last Friday in Chicago at 65.13 while currently trading at 66.38, up over 125 points for the week still hovering right near an all-time high.

I do not have any grain recommendations, but it looks to me that this commodity might be topping out and if you have a bearish bias, I would sell it at today's price level while placing the stop loss at the contact high standing at the May 18th high of 70.49. The risk would be around $1,700 per contract plus slippage and commission.

The volatility is currently extraordinarily high as we are witnessing many limit up and downs throughout the grain sector, and that situation will not end anytime soon.

The chart structure in soybean oil is improving daily as the rest of the grain sector is experiencing terrible chart structure due to extreme volatility. So, keep a close eye on this market as I think the risk/reward could be in your favor to the downside.

Traders keep a close eye on weather conditions as we enter the critical Memorial Day weekend as cooler weather and rain have spread across the Midwestern part of the United States, which could start to pressure prices.

TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
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Phone #: 630-408-3325


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