We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COMan IB of Peregrine Finanial Group to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Busines, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Precious Metal Futures---The precious metals today on this holiday weekend are sharply higher with gold trading at 1,566 an ounce up $8 dollars selling off from earlier highs while silver futures are up 11 cents to 28.29 and is what has been a choppy trading week for both silver and gold. Copper futures are up about 170 points currently trading at 344.50 right near major support at 340 with the possibility of breaking through it during this session or early next week. Gold market has been incredibly choppy this week with lows down at 1,532 and then trading as high as 1,600 with each day basically trading $30 higher or $30 lower and it remains incredibly choppy so I still advise traders to sit on the sideline because it is very difficult to be profitable in a choppy market. If you are bullish the gold market there is a chance of a double bottom which happened the other day if you look on the daily chart there was the low 1,526 and then it was another low 1,532 before both rallying sharply at those levels, however if those levels are breached than you would think prices are going lower. Copper futures in my opinion remain bearish because I do believe that there is a European and Chinese slowdown and remember China uses 40% of the world’s copper which is a staggering amount so if there is a real slowdown in China copper prices could head much further to the downside in my opinion. Next week will be extremely volatile as usual especially with the monthly unemployment report on Friday which will dictate short term prices in many of the commodities and in the currency market. The trend in silver and copper is lower and I believe traders should play those markets to the short side, however gold is still choppy and I believe you should be neutral that market until a breakout under 1,526 on a closing basis is breached remembering to always use a stop loss order to try and minimize risk
Energy Futures--- The energy futures today are trading very quietly out of this pre-holiday weekend with crude oil futures unchanged in the July contract currently trading right around 90.60 while unleaded gasoline is down 40 points to trade at 2.87 a gallon still right near five-month lows on weakness in Europe and China. Heating oil futures are unchanged for the trading day in the June contract currently trading at 2.82 with major support at 2.70 which was hit three times in 2011 and was unable to break those levels so take a look at the weekly chart of heating oil because if it breaks 2.70 you could head sharply lower from those levels. Natural gas futures are very quiet today down two points currently trading in the June contract 2.62 still on able to penetrate through the 2.75 resistance area. If you look at unleaded gasoline weekly chart the next major support is still all the way down to about 2.60 a gallon which is still nearly 30 points away, however the heating oil chart is within striking distance and could be very interesting next week to see if it does reach those important levels. Next week has many reports which will dictate short term direction of the energy futures could head especially next Friday with the release of the monthly unemployment report which will be released at 7:30 AM central time.
Grain Futures-- The grain futures today were mixed with July wheat up $.16 to currently trade at 6.81 a bushel down about 20 cents for the week an incredibly volatile last week for wheat prices while corn futures which have been absolutely crushed this week were unchanged in the July contract currently at 5.75 and breaking new lows today in an incredibly volatile and choppy market which actually hit a high of 6.41 on Monday’s trading session. July oats are down 8 currently at 2.97 also marking a six week low in price this week looking at continue its bearish momentum while July rough rice is down $.40 currently at 14.51 breaking to new lows and continuing its bearish momentum to the downside. Soybean futures which hit an eight week low on Wednesday's trade are slightly higher by 4 cents to trade at 13.75 in the July contract with the next major support at 13.60 to the downside while July soymeal is slightly lower at 409 a ton on this morning in Chicago which will be an extremely volatile trading session due to the Memorial Day holiday. If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading.
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Trading is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites.
Bond Futures-- The bond market rallied sharply last week with today’s action slightly lower in Chicago however bonds climbed right near all-time highs in the bond futures and all-time lows in the bond yields with the 10 year note yielding 1.75% near a new record low breaking the old lows of 1.83% while the five-year note is at 0.75% breaking the old record low of 0.82%. The 30 year bond yield is trading at 2.85% and the futures are at 147-18 which is near an all-time high as well. What is the bond market telling us? When yields are at all-time lows that tells me that bond traders think the economy is not doing near as well as reported or the fact that the government is just purchasing so many bonds and pushing the yield so low because of the fact that we are $16 trillion in debt and the United States Federal Reserve does not want to pay high interest rates on that debt so they are forcing yields low which is exactly what Alan Greenspan the former Federal Reserve chairman did 10 years ago which many blame him for causing the housing bubble because of the fact that he kept interest rates so low for so long. The problem with really low rates is senior citizens who are trying to retire want to have some fixed income but there are no interest rates worth purchasing and they are forced to either buy stocks, land, or some other type of investment with risk. The great thing about buying a bond when you’re 75 years old is that it's guaranteed with no risk and you are guaranteed a certain rate of return which is what many people senior citizens relied upon or use to live on.
Sugar Futures--- Sugar futures are modestly higher this afternoon in New York for the 2nd day in a row currently up 7 points in the July contract traded 19.65 after Wednesday hitting a fresh two year low in price once again breaking $.20 a pound level with the next major support around 17.50 and in my opinion I think we head back down to the July 2010 lows of 15.50 like I've stated in many previous blogs here in the last several weeks due to the fact that we have a glut in supply and a lack of demand especially with the European and Chinese economic slowdown. I consider today just a kickback in price with absolutely no meaning and I believe the trend will continue to the downside in the short term.
Coffee Futures--- Coffee futures this week were absolutely crushed down by about 1200 points from last Fridays close currently trading at 166.55 a pound which is a new fresh contract low down another $.30 points in today’s action hitting a fresh two year low this Friday pre-Memorial holiday weekend. Coffee prices continue their down slide on the fact of a large harvest coming increasing the supply while demand is very low at this point even with prices coming down to these levels which are still historically very high, remember coffee prices for years were stuck in between the $.60-$.90 range only recently in the last five or so years have coffee prices been this high and in my opinion I believe coffee prices like I've stated in many previous blogs before this one are headed down to the 150s in the short term
Cotton Futures-- Cotton futures are down once again today lower by 20 points trading right around 70.45 a bale in the July contract finishing down about 600 points during the trading week hitting another fresh two year low on record supplies coming in the market with very little overseas demand at this point. Cotton prices have plunged over 2000 points in the last four weeks which is about a $10,000 gain or loss depending if you were short or long the market on 1 contract which is absolutely amazing in this short period of time. As I've stated in many previous blogs prior to this one I believe cotton prices are headed to the low 60s with an incredibly high surplus at this point it’s difficult to see prices bottoming in the short term unless weather problems develops which still could happen because of the fact that we are still in the month of May and we still have June, July, and August ahead of us before harvest comes this fall.
Cocoa Futures--- Cocoa futures are quiet today up 7 points in the July contract currently trading at 2112 slightly higher after being down for 3 consecutive trading session selling off more than 170 points this week and now looking at contract lows which is the next support of around 2050 which in my opinion will be broken shortly due to the fact that there is very little demand for Cocoa even at these relatively low prices in the last several years while unrest in the Ivory Coast has dampened also having traders take out disruption premiums in Cocoa prices causing prices to head near contract lows once again. Cocoa futures are extremely volatile especially if unrest comes out in the Ivory Coast you could see some giant spike ups and spike downs, still remember if you have an opinion on this market and want to trade please always use a stop loss and try to minimize your risk in case you are wrong.
Euro Currency--- The Euro currency today created new lows earlier the trading session down at 1.2496 which is the new 21 month low however rallied later in the day currently trading at 1.2517 down 9 in a quiet trade today. The momentum is still to the downside in the Euro currency and I do believe prices are heading lower as long as uncertainty stays in Europe traders will in my opinion keep selling the Euro currency against the US dollar. Next week is filled with many reports including the monthly jobs report which comes out on Friday at 7:30 AM central time and should have a large impact on currency prices.
Lumber Futures-- Lumber futures today in Chicago traded very quietly up 140 points in the July contract currently trading at 289.00 per board foot continuing to stick right near contract highs with low volatility impressing traders with its resiliency to selloff with many of the other commodities. Yesterday's housing starts number was solid prompting lumber prices up in the last couple of trading sessions; however a breakthrough of 295 which is the contract high is the next major resistance which will need to be broken to resume the bull market and uptrend. In my opinion I am still negative lumber prices due to the fact that I think the economy is not doing as well as being reported also I think the housing market is still in trouble and could even head lower this year. I still don't understand personally why somebody would buyer a brand-new home and get no rebate on price when you can buy a home that was built five years ago and get a tremendous rebate in price. And that is what happened to lumber prices that demand has slowed down to that fact that we have a large inventory of homes that still needs to be sold, but sometimes you are wrong and prices have been going up despite all of the negative news.
Canadian Dollar-- The Canadian dollar continues its bearish momentum today down another 5 points right near session lows of the day in the June contract currently at 9713 after breaking out of that 14 week consolidation last week prices continue to break support with the next level of major support around 9650 which in my opinion I think will be broken pretty soon due to the fact that the U.S dollar is the king right now with investors flocking for security and exiting all other major foreign currencies at least here in the short term. Also the Canadian dollar is affected by crude oil and other export prices so with lower commodity prices and lower crude oil prices that tends to put pressure on the Canadian dollar
Milk Futures--- Milk futures today continue their bullish momentum to the upside higher by another 30 points currently trading at 16.40 with a high in the intraday at 16.50 which is an eight week high in prices while just three weeks ago traders and dairy farmers were shaking their heads wondering how low prices are going and instead now they're wondering how high are prices going. The next major resistance is at 16.65-16.75 and if it crosses that major resistance that would create a four-month high and only an eyelash away from contract highs which is right at 17.50 which happened about five months ago. What a remarkable turnaround milk futures have had in the last three weeks that is why when you trade commodities you have to place stop losses because prices can turn very quickly to the up or turn down very quickly so remember always use a money management system and always use stop losses to try and minimize your risk. I still have a problem believing some of these prices in the milk futures at this time; however you have to go with the trend so I recommend sitting on the side-line and watching what develops. If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading.
Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone # (800) 615-7649
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Trading is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites.
plz send me notes on options, spot and forward transactions, futures and swaps.
thk u v much.
regards
rajeev