We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Grain Futures--- The grain market this week saw high volatility across the board especially on this Friday afternoon with many commodities selling off sharply today putting pressure on the soybeans in the January contract finishing down only 11 cents at 15.35 a bushel up around $.13 for the trading week right near the 20 day and 100 day moving averages which is at 15.51 a bushel and in my opinion if prices break those levels on heavy volume the lows might be in the soybean market. Corn futures for the December contract were one of the few commodities today that were actually higher trading at 7.61 a bushel right near a four week after last Thursday’s bullish report has propelled corn prices at the upper end of the trading range. That corn is far above their 20 and 100 day moving average which suggests to me in my opinion that prices are headed towards the $8 dollar level with wheat having a very solid week up $.18 and on this Friday afternoon closing higher by $.3 at 8.71 a bushel breaking its 20 day moving average which was at 8 .70 and well above its 100 day moving averages which looks to me that it is going to rally along with corn and the oat market. Wheat futures for the December contract are down about 7% from the high which was a July 23, 2012 at 9.53 a bushel which was during the summer drought. In my opinion I believe the soybeans are in a bottoming process after dropping over $2.50 from recent highs due to harvest pressure as well as a major slowdown in China sending many of the grain prices off of their summer highs with better than expected yields coming in putting a lid on prices at this point, however about 75% of the soybean crop is harvested which means most of the harvest pressure has finished. Traders are now focusing on the November 9th crop report and the weather in South America with the growing season underway receiving beneficial rains and normal temperatures which means the crop is off to a solid start which could be a record producing year in Brazil and in Argentina.
Copper Futures--- Copper futures are sharply lower this Friday afternoon in New York finishing down around 10 cents settling around 364.10 which has broken major support and is also hitting a fresh four week low on major pessimism on copper’s ability the stay at these high levels with a major recession in Europe and a major slowdown in China. Copper shrugged off some bullish news earlier this morning with China’s GDP 7.4% and a stronger then estimated retail sales, however traders are not believing the numbers and their selling breaking support and in my opinion as I’ve stated in many blogs before I think copper prices are headed lower towards the 100 day moving average of 351.00 a pound and possibly going further erasing many of the gains that were associated with the QE3. Copper prices are very indicative on how well economies are performing so if there is tremendous demand for copper that means industries are booming and housing is doing well with world economies strong and when copper prices decline tremendously the exact opposite occurs. Copper futures for the December contract finished right on the lows of the trading week down about 500 points for the week closing right on the lower end of the recent range and in my opinion is headed much lower. If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading.
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.
Sugar Futures--- Sugar futures for the March contract bucked the trend today finishing higher by 41 points currently trading right around 20.20 a pound retesting contract lows earlier and bouncing strongly on major short covering. Sugar prices for the week ended up 25 points and are still near the September 6, 2012 low of 19.48 while way under the 20 and 100 day moving average and still in a bearish trend. Sugar prices can follow corn as well as crude oil prices because sugar is used as a bio diesel and with high prices in corn and still relatively high prices in gasoline I still believe that sugar prices will stabilize at these relatively cheap levels. Sugar futures traded as high as 21.70 just one week ago selling off more than 200 points on pessimism about Chinese and European economies.
Coffee Futures--- Coffee futures in New York Friday afternoon settled up 250 points currently trading at 161.10 a pound in the December contract still hovering right near contract lows which happened on June 18th of this year at 153.70 and still far below its 20 day and 100 day moving average. Coffee prices have been in a solid decline over the last several weeks due to a high surplus in supply as well as slowing economies around the world causing demand to diminish with major support on the daily chart at the 155 level and the last two occasions prices went down to those price levels a significant rally occurred sending prices back up into the low 180s. Today was a bad day for the commodity and stock markets, however many of the soft commodities including coffee and sugar were sharply higher after having a poor week coming into today with coffee finishing up about 200 points for the trading week. Coffee volatility at this point is pretty low historically and I believe you will start to see much higher volatility in the next coming weeks especially coming into the next growing season which always seems to put some price premium just in case of a poor crop or a devastating freeze. If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.
Precious Metal Futures--- Gold futures plummeted once again today finishing down $22 an ounce currently trading at 1, 722 right near session lows with gold far below the 20 day moving average now looking towards its 100 day moving average at 1, 661 and in my opinion like I’ve stated in many previous blogs I am bearish the precious metals I think the QE3 nonsense overpriced the metals especially with worldwide economies slowing down. Silver futures had a very tough week this week finishing down about $1.80 currently trading at 32.10 down about $.75 this Friday afternoon also on lack of demand and prices just might be too high with all these problems currently around the world. Gold futures have hit an eight week low today with the next major support at 1,690 while the next major support for silver futures is at $31 also hitting an eight week low heading towards 100 day moving average at 30.17 which is now less than two dollars away which also is its 50% retracement from the recent lows in August to the recent highs in early October. As I’ve stated in many previous blogs I do believe that silver prices are headed lower but I do believe there will be a very solid buying opportunity if silver prices can get under $29 an ounce. The Euro currency today was only down about 35 points which really didn’t have much impact on metal prices it was just the fact that traders are liquidating and taking profits on many of their long positions.
Bond Futures-- The bond market rallied slightly today in Chicago while still hovering around all-time highs in the bond futures and all-time lows in the bond yields with the 10 year note yielding 1.747 with the record low just the eyelash away at 1.47% while the five-year note is at 0.75% with the record low of 0.59% which might be broken later in the year. The 30 year bond is trading higher by 30 ticks at 147-10 rallying on the stock market sell off as a flight to quality yielding 2.97%. What is the bond market telling us? When yields are near all-time lows that tells me that bond traders think the economy is not doing near as well as reported or the fact that the government is just purchasing so many bonds and pushing the yield so low because of the fact that we are $16 trillion in debt and the United States Federal Reserve does not want to pay high interest rates on that debt so they are forcing yields low which is exactly what Alan Greenspan the former Federal Reserve chairman did 10 years ago which many blame him for causing the housing bubble because of the fact that he kept interest rates so low for so long. The problem with really low rates is senior citizens who are trying to retire want to have some fixed income but there are no interest rates worth purchasing and they are forced to either buy stocks, land, or some other type of investment with risk. The great thing about buying a bond when you’re 75 years old is that it's guaranteed with no risk and you are guaranteed a certain rate of return which is what many people senior citizens relied upon or use to live on.
Energy Futures--- The energy futures in New York this morning are sharply lower on renewed pessimism across the world on economic slowdowns pushing crude oil down $2.05 a barrel currently trading at 90.44 and in my opinion I believe there is a possible double top on the daily charts in unleaded gasoline and heating oil. If you take a look at the gasoline chart a possible exhaustion on the upside with today pushing prices down 500 points at 2.6750 a gallon with heating oil down 500 points at 3.1170 a gallon and both of those commodities have been much stronger then crude oil which is at the bottom end of its trading range and in my opinion are all headed sharply lower from these levels due to the fact of a huge glut in crude oil with slowing economic activity across the world plus the fact that QE3 is old news that traders have forgotten about. Last year at this time commodity prices went sharply lower on the European prices and in my opinion I believe are starting to see that again especially with the fiscal cliff just over two months away here in the United States which could push asset prices even lower. The energy complex is very interesting on the daily chart with crude oil right near recent lows but unleaded gasoline making new highs last week before it failed which in my opinion is a very bearish sign and I would be playing and I’m advising to be short all of the energy sector in my opinion I think prices are headed lower, however this is an extremely volatile market and any uprising over in Iran could change prices very quickly so remember to always use a stop loss to try to minimize risk you are wrong but at this point in time I believe prices are headed lower.
Currency Futures--- Currency futures are lower this afternoon with the Euro currency lower by 40 points currently trading at 1.3030 right at its 20 day moving average while still near a fresh two-week high against the U.S dollar on renewed optimism that Europe is doing the correct thing with their austerity programs. The selloff in the Euro currency today along with poor earnings sending the stock market sharply lower caused a rally in the U.S dollar as a flight to safety this afternoon. The U.S dollar is up 30 points currently trading at 79.41 however in my opinion is still continuing its bearish momentum on the fact that the Federal Reserve continues QE3 program indefinitely flooding the market with liquidity therefore selling off the US dollar. In my opinion I believe that the currency market is basically pretty choppy with really no trend in sight so I’m recommending traders sit on the sidelines and wait for some trend to develop remembering that if there is a fiscal cliff on January 1st 2013 that could cause the U.S dollar to rally sharply just like it did during the 2008 monetary crisis but at this point in time that is still over two months away. The Canadian dollar is sharply lower against the U.S dollar down 82 points at 1.053 near session lows breaking its 20 day average and now trending lower breaking support and at a two-month low and as a trader I always try to follow the trend because the currency markets are extremely trendy so if the Canadian dollar does break 1.010 my recommendation is to go short the Canadian dollar remembering always put a stop loss in case you are wrong limiting risk. The British Pound is down 53 points at 1.6005 this afternoon looking to retest the contract highs of three weeks ago at 1.63 still remaining in a very bullish of trend and the one positive thing that the British Pound does have is the fact that it is not related to the Euro currency which was a very smart move on their part. The currency markets at this point are not very volatile however in my opinion that will change after the election because then I think volatility will increase substantially. If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.
Cocoa futures ---Cocoa futures in New York today finished up 31 points for the 2nd consecutive trading session closing right around 2470 coming off early session highs while many of the commodities sold off today because of a weak stock market prompting fears that prices may have peaked across the board and a strong U.S dollar is to blame, however cocoa was positive for the day with major support at 2400 on the daily chart. Cocoa futures are in a current downtrend right at a 5 week low breaking the 20 day moving average a couple of days back and now are looking right at the 100 day moving average of 2358 level and if it breaks that you’re looking at a possible bear market to the downside in the next couple of months. Cocoa futures in my opinion have not been extremely volatile in the last 6 to 8 months which is pretty unusual and I believe you will start to see some unrest in the Ivory Coast which definitely puts volatility back in cocoa while the chart has very good chart structure to the upside I’m advising to sit on the side-lines at this point because there really is no trend. As I’ve stated in many previous blogs I like to trade with the trend and this market is trendless if you look at the daily chart it has been really choppy but eventually the trend will develop so keep your eye on this interesting commodity.
Livestock Futures---Livestock futures this afternoon in Chicago were mixed with live cattle for the December contract finishing lower by 70 points at 127.35 a pound while still remaining under its 20 day and its 100 day moving average still pointing to lower live cattle prices. Live cattle prices are still about 600 points from its contract low which happened on April 27, 2012 at 1.20 and in my opinion I believe prices will retest those levels in the next coming weeks. Feeder cattle prices were down 50 points currently trading 150.10 a pound with major resistance at 151.25, however still very far away from the contract highs on May 21st 2012 at 164.30 before the U.S drought took its toll on corn prices sending cattle prices sharply lower. The 20 day moving average in the January feeder cattle is 149.70 only an eyelash away while the 100 day average is 152.21 which now is only 250 points from today’s levels. Lean hog futures for the February contract were up 50 points today at 85.75 a pound still hanging around recent highs due to the fact that the hog herd historically is very small and if you look at the back months in hog prices they are at all-time highs. Hog prices are above the 20 and 100 day moving averages telling me that higher prices are coming in the February contract so I’m advising traders to take advantage of any type of dip in this market and try to establish long positions remembering to always place a stop loss trying to minimize monetary losses
Orange Juice Futures--- Orange juice futures in New York today settled down 145 points for the 2nd consecutive trading session settling at 112.80 for the trading session hovering right near the 52-week low which happened on August 15th of this year at 105.05 and is only about 6.50% from hitting that level on extremely light volume this afternoon. Orange juice prices are far from their highs which were hit on January 10th earlier this year at 196.10 all due to the fact that hurricane season was non-existent therefore creating an abundant harvest putting supply pressure on the market, however in my opinion with major support at 105 I believe orange juice prices are becoming relatively cheap compared to the rest of the commodity markets so I’m advising traders to start taking a look at orange juice to the upside. Orange juice futures are not real liquid meaning they don’t do a lot of volume but that doesn’t mean you can’t trade the market you just have to be careful and make sure you use a stop loss trying to limit your risk because there is always risk when you place any trade in any commodity. I would sit on the side-lines and wait and see if orange juice prices come near that 105 level and then from there take a serious look at the upside because I do believe there is potential to start a fall rally. The 100 day moving average in the January orange juice is at 116.15 so we are 400 points lower which generally is a negative sign that is stating the trend should continue so I do expect prices to retest at 105 in the next couple of days. If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.
Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone # (800) 615-7649
