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74 thoughts on “Where will the Dow go from here?”
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I'm looking for ~a 6% downturn and then a move to DJ 13000.
I fully agree with your reply to Jim.
That kind of 'thinking' works often against the 'owner' himself/herself in dynamic and changing markets. The future is not known even though one could do one's best to prepare for a range of scenarios. Marrying any one scenario rigidly in this 'business' can lead one to the poor house.
To guard against such feeling-based conjectures was the principal reason for my coming up with my own Indicator. It is solely based on market data- market internals. I needed something coming from the market itself to guide me replacing emotions, hope, or what the gurus say. Alas it took me years and lots of losses to find my path.
Happy Easter, Terry Omalley.
It will not touch 14,000 again for years....From here, it will struggle, but will test 11,600, then reverse back into Bear market with shorting opportunities, and trade like a Japenese style market for years to come. BOOKMARK THIS COMMENT!!!
your figures are very specific Jim,do you have a crystal ball? if so can you give me the next lottery numbers, cheers. P.S. i suspect that a lot of the commentaters on this blog are already short on the DOW and are looking for justification for their positions but meanwhile are watching their capital shrinking. i,m long myself with a tight stop loss and IF the market turns and hits me well and good. I,ll then let the market tell me to what to do but i certainly won,t be trading the news or some impending doom. happy easter everybody,it,s an important religious holiday here in Ireland
My Indicator tells me that the internals are good and supportive of this uptrend.
Apparently 56% follow their emotions and feelings. C'est la vie. That's how the market functions. We can't all buy or sell at the same time! Otherwise there won't be a market.
56% bears?
nice...up we go.
Complacency reigns...
s&p: first 1250 and then 1570 if fed continues 0 interest rate policy. if not, market will realize that taxes are going up and fall to 100
Now is very overbought, there should be any correction period to accumulate some energy for further bulish.
We know that a market will either go up, down, or sideways. Logic- especially chart reading logic- dictates that the Dow will drop. But the market has been defying logic for some time now. More than a few have been singed by this. We should also remember that Mr. Market can remain illogical longer than our accounts can stand. So, kudos to our friend, O'Malley. We should trade what we see, but keep our short powder very dry. Well timed puts will be helpful.
In spite of the lethargy shown in the markets over the past few days, I don't see us getting this close to a really big headline number (11K) and not getting there in order to make the headline. We may even go a bit beyond just to be sure that the public gets the message that we're not as bad off as their guts tell them that they are. At that point, I think we'll see a rate increase and that will kill the carry trade - as well as this run up in the markets. I'm looking for 1220 in SPX and 11200 in DJI before we fail significantly.
S&P 1235 Dow 11216 S&P down to 883
all i want to say have a look at the $NYSI symbol and compare the turning points in the S&P with turning points on the MACD on that symbol....Cheers
Short Term, West to East Channel on low volume -- don't know what's next.
The ticking time bombs: Variable Rate Mortgages, Commercial Real Estate Re-Financing,
Unemployment, US Bank Failures, US Dollar (affected by PIIGS & US Debt).
2,988 U.S. banks are concentrated in commercial real estate loans and, according to some reports, half of $1.4 trillion in outstanding loans that need refinancing between 2011 and 2014 are underwater.
Can the US economy absorb the above?
How long can US government deficit spending be sustained?
When the US Debt reaches 100% GDP in 2020, what then?
Long Term, who knows?
Right now, my bet us on the UUP with a stop-loss at 23.75,
so I guess I'm leaning bearish on the PIIGS for now,
staying neutral on the SPY & IWM.
Stay tuned.
Shrt term market is going up because of earnings, wikk see less job losses/ Long term earnings will not improve because of unemployement cause lack of demand which in turn will bring bext round of lay offs and thus down spiral of deflayions. Real estate is also marked down by short sale or marking dowm principal, so big crash is coming just when.
I agree with those who commented that the S&P would drift up to 1200 in earley April and then correct back down to 1125.
Dow 11000+ in April (traditionally good month)
Then it's bombs away under 10k towards Fall of 2010.
Although I think we'll end the year a bit above 10000.
What will happen with all the cash that comes out of bonds when interest rates start to tick up? Much of it is likely to go into equities.
"true" or "real" inflation adjusted , it's already ind a long term downtrend which will continue...direction from here up or down depends on how fast they continue "printing Money" or selling bonds of any other method of increasing the money supply. This gradually peters out in effect if continued long enough, especially considering the populations age profiles in developed countries. The reason it worked well before was the "retired" class was a small percentage of the overall population and a few in poverty did not "appear" to harm any economy (only those small no.of individuals). Their relative poverty was caused by the rosion of the buying power of their money accumaulated over their life...think of the 1970's buying power of money erosion, especially real estate in Australia.
Similar os occuring now, expcept without the same population curve, hence eventually it wont work. It's impotant now iwth a larger retired population to maintain the purchaing power of money.. important not just for the retirees , but for the whole economy.
Sorry sidetracked, the "inflation" caused by the "printing" of money is already apparent thru Australia, and I presume most of the world. It may not be reflected in CPI's as they do not reflect the true inflation due to statistical massaging. This "inflation" or lowering of purchasing power of money is reflected in rises of assets like real estate (in Australia which did not have an oversupply) and stocks, food at the supermarkets has increased a lot in price too! This rise in assets is reflected by a rising sharemarket. The "money printing" is having a gradual lessening of effect as expected. The markets should continue rising for a bit at an ever slower pace...but the "real" value is already falling
Wheres the sideways BUTTON!!!!!!!!!!Well price action is king & opinion is pointless, if wave structure & corrections are real then this may possibly and un orthodox expanding triangle, or a correction of some sort if our last correction was a price correction then we should have a time correction according to alternate theory, however due to media hype, it is easy to see why people are on edge, if you turned off your media knob & threw out the useless lagging indicators what do you see & what would you feel????????
Ang MM
Where's the overwhelming volume? Very suspect. Only one way to go, down! The longer it takes the worse it's going to be.
The oscillators are all screaming sell!
But no one is.......yet. The jobs report
appears to be the holy grail that everyone
is waiting for. Maybe this time it's buy the rumor
sell the news?
The fundamentals are weak, all we are hearing about is the "good points", the cup is half full instead of half empty. Employment is sky high, everyone is strugling with loans and repayments, consumers and buiseneses and even countries - greece, iceland, portugal to name but a few. Because we had such a major crash in 08 we were due a major pullback - march 09 till now or at the latest may. WE WILL SEE THE BIGGEST STOCK MARKET CRASH IN OUR LIFETIME IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS.
The dow will reach levels which would scare people, my guess is in the 2000 points level
For short-term it's one thing and long-term it's another.
I take care of the short-term daily following the larger market picture through my own Indicator using market internals. It's kind of like in driving to see the road ahead using the headlights of my car. The long-term is another question.
A respected advisor stated it for me too, saying: "So what we do with the annual forecast is we're combining that with our volume work. So it's like the proverbial weatherman looking out the window. You know, you wait for your short-term signals. You don't stick with your big forecast until you get confirmation that, indeed, it's happening. But yes, according to this model, we should run out of steam here some time this summer and have a pretty sharp correction. But how high are we going to be when we hit that top? Could it be 12,000, 14,000? You don't know. So we will have to wait for that point. Could be quite high."
I agree with his anticipation of a sharp correction (20-30%?) and I think it will likely be deeper than the corrections we have seen since March 9, 2009 before the final top is reached, probably this Fall. But during summer? Who knows? May be before or after, depending on a trigger.
But it makes sense being more watchful and careful while not marrying any one scenario (in my case).
If the Fed maintains low interest rates, which is likely, the market should rally further. The combination of low interest rates and higher taxes needed to pay for Obamacare will make bonds and treasuries less appealing and quality stocks more appealing. This should play out over the next 2 years, with a few minor corrections. The traders rule however.
Predicting where DOW will be does not make money. You need to be trader to make money.
Been taking profits by culling the weak stocks. Market has been correcting for the past two weeks for a larger and larger list of stocks. Whether this will turn into a longer, more extended pullback remains to be seen. However, if the market were to rally in April into strongly "overbought" territory, that would probably set up for a longer term correction.
"Sell in May and go away" may prove to be true once again.
The Fed is keeping rates low, however even they cannot continue to buy back 80% of all treasury bonds sold in the agency market. Market forces and the anticipated drop of the dollar will drive up US treasury rates over the next 1 to 12 months to 5.25% on the 10 year. That will be high enough to snuff out any recovery in the residential housing market, which will cause consumers with lost savings , reduced home equity values and worries over job sevurity to stop spending even more so. The market will crash about 35% to 50% from its highs ( about 11,200 in june 2010) by summer of 2011 at the latest ( possibly the second half of this year )
doesn't make much differece what i think it will do..........the market has a mind of it's own...........i just try my best to stay on top of it.....AND NOT GUESS where it's going.
Esta sobrecompra tiene que corregirse tarde o temprano...
(Note from Susan: Loosely translated, this means, "This market must correct itself sooner or later…")
Ase, mientras mas tiempo el mercado se demore en corregirse, mas severa sera la correccion.
(Translation: The longer it takes to correct, the greater the severity of the correction.)
Just give bank a present for there misbehaviour and the economy will rise again like a phoenix within a short time. Economy is so simple, just like printing money.
still growing......
the market may go sideways or up for a little while longer but will be going south by the end of May.....just another pointless guess.
There is no right or wrong answer to the question as stated.
What time frame are we talking about ???
With the socialist and statists morons running this country, the only way is down.... including the Dow.
Yes, the question is incomplete without the time frame. However, Omalley, You're a Star!!!
Cheers.
There is momentum into the market, so short term it'll be up, but it's not based on strong fundamentals. We all need to be cautious and watch for signs of weakening. Then hold onto your hats! I think this will be the double dip drop into some serious low territory.
The US markets are rigged obviously. They will be headed higher as the adm.'s collective hides hinge on it. Forget your traditional security anaysis textbooks.
Breaking out to the next higher level
short term up, then eroding down.
best advice given by omalley.(for traders)
but for a person who wish to invest longer term wait for the correction.
the market is tired and volume continues to drop. about 1 more week and this market will head down 5% to 10%.
The market is getting tired.the volumes are droping.The market will have a 5% to 10% pull back.
Gold star for Omalley at 12:45:02.
who cares. why do we need to have an opinion or a desire to be right. trade what you see not what you think.
I second that.
The Dow is climbing a wall of worry and there is still pretty of anxiety out there even though the VIX is plenty low. Large amounts of cash is sitting in money market accounts. The Dow at the moment is still in the up trend and majority of people feel a sizable drop is ahead which of course is a positive sign.
Timeframe is very important, afther all said and done time is the enemy here by 2012 Dow will be 2550 Gold $6230 Silver $250. Oil $35. Greatest War the world has ever seen.
I believe the market is being manipulated by the plunge protection team and some Goldmen Sachs style traders. In my view the best thing to do as a medium time range trader is to trade the trend as long as it goes up but use no leverage at this point due to what is the fastest and highest trend in the dow in the bast 50 years. When the market breaks the trend and goes down take a big short position. I think their will be big money to made this year if you stick to your system but you will probably need to ride out some bumpy roads for sure!
Daily DOW engulfing pattern 3/24 and shooting star 3/25.
Market will go up for a few more months until downward spiral takes place to new lows.
When major companies go before congress to explain the very large losses to be taken because of the health bill more pressure will be placed on the November elections to replace the goverment that is turning into a Marxist wonderland. This will create hope for now.
War, terror attack etc. any such event will crash the stock market this year.
in other words ; its a house of cards
the market moves in waves, reflecting optimism and pessimism. How far a wave has developped, is made visible in graphs of the market internals. Go to stockcharts.com and play with $bpspx, $bptran, $nya50r, $nahgh, $nasi, $nysi, $namo. Now you know Mr. Market will start vomiting soon.
Probably up , up, and away... The individual investors , and all the money on the sidelines still has to in, so they say. This should bid up the prices for a good while. Then about the time the last ones are in, the market will plunge (quickly) leaving them holding the bag. The emotional panic will set in, people will quit spending again, and we'll visit the March 09 lows again. Of course all this will take another 18 months.
Have been long OEX since Dow 10,100 in Feb. I think the US economy was and is stronger than most people think. DOW still has a way to go (maybe 11,500?). As long as most traders are pessimistic, like those commenting here, markets will climb. After the bears capitulate and optimism reigns (when there's no one left to buy) that's when you might get a sudden blowoff.
Personally, I think (guess, that is) capitulation is three weeks away. Until late April, I will rely on Adam's bullish triangles and keep a generous stop.
Hello,
sorry, when I comment, that the question is nonsense, without speaking about a timeframe.
Best Regards
Juergen
Every rally is still a reason for the commercial traders to sell, not for them to buy.
It will be choppy but the Dow will go up over the months to 11200
I think the DOW will continue to climb until war breaks out in the middle east. Companys are cash rich,and consumers are tired of frugallity. They need to feed their spending habits.
Now is a good time to be taking long positions in Gold and Oil. When the confrontation yakes place with Iran things will get real crazy for a while. But the money is made now while prices are stable. If you wait till the shooting starts you will be way too late.
My model went to cash last night.
Dow is going up targeting 11201 which is the 61.8 of febonachi
off 14240 and 6421..
All of the profits have been made at the expense of people, layoffs to be exact and a few other cost cutting measures. I think those still working and who have money in their pockets do not even realize that there is or was a recession. The housing problem still not fixed and Obamacare which means higher taxes will not result in greater spending. Lastly an economy cannot be built on an iphone or ipad alone, that was tried way back in the late seventies early eighties with the walkman and that failed. The talking heads on t.v. should stop scaring people about the housing bust and lack of new construction, of course there will be less construction since there is an inventory backlog vis a vie foreclosures. Investors and traders alike should take heed of that fact. The second half of this year is going to be tough with no sector leading the way up only down. Not trying to be gloomy just realistic Wanderer
The Dow is headed down. Earnings and expectations(sentiment), trigger movements. This earning season may look good, but the markets look 3-6 months forward. Higher taxes, new mandates, no new hiring except for Government jobs, Corporations and small business reducing benefits, States on the ropes, even firing workers, including sacrosanct teachers,police and firefighters all bode ill. Rampant federal spending and borrowing portend higher interest rates, raising costs to business and placing added burdens on all governmental agencies. Tax revenues will continue to decline, promulgating higher and new taxes, which will be gladly instituted by this administration.Residential and commercial real estate is sill in decline. Our banks are in crisis, refusing to lend to the very few applicants for loans. As to GDP, (GDP=MV), there is plenty M,money, but no V,velocity,(circulation of M). I am basically an optimist and continue to be fully invested, except for my emergency funds. However, my investments are based on the realities of the economy as I percieve them. I agree with Meise and M. Friedman, We cannot spend our way out of a recession. We have prevailed in the past and will do so again. It will be difficult and take some time. Have faith but be perspicatious.Herach.
I agree totally!
The market is oversold and exhausted. Hugh delevering is still underway which will lead to long term devaluation, stocks included. The stock market just keeps going up because of the herd instinct, but the herd will soon plunge into the cliff.
Regards/Bernard
Every publication I read is saying that the market is topping and will go down. Well, if everyone is saying that, then it won't. The crowd is usually wrong.
Watch out for the second half of the year. If no real job improvement the consumer will be tapped out!
up to 12000, testing above, then reversal
I think the SNDP SHALL TOUCH 1230-1250 RANGE BEFORE IT TURNS TO TOUCH 1000 OR LOWER.
I agree with this comment & in my view that turn will happen at the end of June.
Momentum has been flat since the end of Feb; Stochastics have been fading the ascent; the MACD Line and Signal Line are poised to cross, Divergence below the "0" line.