It is always interesting to live through history. However, I think many traders, or should say investors would probably like to forget about the history making market action on Thursday.
I just wanted to write a short post and show you where we stand with our "Trade Triangle" technology.
One of the advantages of using MarketClub's "Trade Triangles" is that you don't have to worry about the problems in Greece, nor do you have to worry about earnings reports, downgrades, supply and demand statistics, and all of the millions of other things that make up the price of a stock or a commodity.
An inescapable reality of the market, that effects all of us, is perception. This one characteristic can trump earnings reports, good news, and any other market changing force that comes out. For the last 12 months, the perception has been that things are getting better, and that pushed the market higher. Perception may have changed yesterday as investors are now once again beginning to worry about the euro, sovereign debt, and the value of paper currencies.
So here is how we stand in the major markets with our "Trade Triangle" technology:
Gold: long from 1192.08 on 5/6
Crude oil: short from 85.12 on 5/4
S&P 500: out and neutral from 1181.62 on 5/4
Dollar Index: long from 81.90 from 4/23
Thursday was a very stressful day for many traders as they lacked one essential tool for trading and that is, investing and trading with a game plan.
The advantage of trading with a game plan and "Trade Triangles" is that it takes much of the guesswork and all of the emotional stress out of the equation. If you would like to receive a complimentary PDF copy of my personal game plan, simply call our office 800-538-7424 or e-mail us at
su*****@in*.com
and put 'game plan' in the subject line.
It remains to be seen what's going to happen in the future, but the one thing that every trader/investor must pay attention to is perception and what the markets are doing.
On a brighter note, our monthly "Trade Triangle" remains positive on the equity markets. However, this can and will change when our monthly green "Trade Triangle" (which has been in place since 5/4/09 from 888.70) on the S&P 500 turns red. It hasn't done so yet, but we will follow that signal when it happens.
After yesterday, I would expect the markets to be much less volatile today as traders, investors, and the world, breathe a collective sigh of relief that the weekend is here.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub
Ken,
We teach you how the markets work and trade basis our trade triangle technology.
All the best,
Adam
New member here :}
Not the best chart interpeter here thats why I joined!
So far looks great.
Do you give updates on the overall market trends to give a heads up on getting out or in overall? Something like Marty Chenard of
StockTiming.com
Thanks Darby
Ahmed,
The Perfect Portfolio
http://club.ino.com/trading/index.php?s=the+perfect+portfolio
World Commodity Portfolio
http://club.ino.com/trading/index.php?s=world+commodity+portfolio
Thanks for your interest.
Adam
I am a member but i dont see mentioned portfolios on the website. How to get access to the "perfect portfolio" and "world commodity portfolio"
Ian,
Thanks for your insights.
Adam
Hi Adam and everyone,
The surprising and brief melt down last Thursday appears to be a new development in the market reflecting the increasing influence and effect of the modern market actions becoming dominated by tens of thousands of small time internet traders all reacting at the same time. Like an avalanche. Its is violent, unpredictable and all over very swiftly.
If all of the many small time "you and I" type traders act in unison and by reaction, then it appears as if this increasingly unpredictable volatility is providing the market with a lessening of security which snowballs in to market actions.
It will be most interesting to reflect on the direction and velocity of this weeks developments and whether such events are indeed becoming a regular feature of modern style trading as we roll into the unknown future.
Carpe Diem !!
Ian Ball
Ha, Ha! I never even thought about the name reference (dabear) to the market as I have had the name before I even knew anything about the market. Good one, Adam.
As usuual, I asked too much in my original question, which is simply this:
A.)If one played the 4 symbols in the Perfect Portfolio with just the M triangles as advised,
OR
B.)If one were to play the 4 symbols in the Perfect Portfolio with M & W triangles as if they were just "regular" individual stocks,
Which way would you expect better results (i.e. to make more money)both in the short term and over time? I ask this because of days like the crash where playing say the S&P as an individual stock would have saved a lot of money in contrast to still waiting for the M triangle to go Red.
I'm assuming you use the M tringles alone ONLY in the Perfect Portfolio. Otherwise you ALWAYS use the M & W triangles for any other given stock or symbol, right?
If I may ask, 2-3 years from now, what are your expectations in terms of % gains for the Perfect Portfolio if played the way you recommend? Or should I say what would not surprise you?
Thanks again, Adam
Dabear,
A.)If one played the 4 symbols in the Perfect Portfolio with just the M triangles as advised,
OR
B.)If one were to play the 4 symbols in the Perfect Portfolio with M & W triangles as if they were just "regular" individual stocks,
For my money I would use the monthly, weekly for trading since that suits my trading personnel. To answer your question about which approach would make more money that depends on the markets themselves. It's a hypothetical question which there is no perfect answer.
What I will say is the four markets we picked out for the perfect portfolio are going to be markets that will have big moves either on the upside or downside in the future. These are the kind of markets that both approaches will do very well in.
I hope this answers your question.
All the best,
Adam
Adam, referring to my earlier question, are you saying if the s&p index shows neutral, then we should exit all equities? Otherwise, we would still have been in stocks with green triangles and been stopped out due to the volatility.
Upsidedownunder,
Thanks for the question.
What I am saying is the SP500 is one market and individual stocks while influenced to a degree by the index travel on their own merit.
Look at the triangles in each of your stocks and see which way the triangles are pointing and trade based on those signals.
All the best,
Adam
Sorry for those who got hammered on Thursday. My charts, your MC video a few days ago, my other service all warned of the comming correctiion. I was on the one minute SDS chart at 2:15 or so minutes before the move, and placed a stop-limit order. I was filled and began watching the chart. To my amazement at 2:40 something the chart took off- I began putting in stops as it went up. I finally got stopped out at 2:45 or shortly there after. I was all smiles. MC helped me catch the arrow on the way up and out near the top for a few hunderd profit. Once in a lifetime thing! WOW
how to gold buy level
Anyone that does not place significance on the Fibonacci numbers need only check the recent action. 61.8 retracement up and 61.8 retracement of that leg down in the last week, with the DOW ending right on the number at 10,380.
"It was obvious that a WEEKLY RED was overdue on all the major indexes...Adam you are the man!!! The trade triangles worked"
No offense, but it was patently obvious that markets were about to break down, trade triangles or not!
im new in your site and i learn about trade triangles. but i cant use in real time or 20 minutes delay (if i make the chart with IB for example i have the nfo online. but with this technology i have the nfo at last day only.
for example now i dont see in the charts in ino today close
Javier,
Thank you for your feedback.
I'm not sure I understand what you mean. Please contact our support at
su*****@IN*.com
or give us a call at 1-800-538-7424 and speak to our tech department. I'm sure they will be able to help you.
All the best,
Adam
In a week the markets will be turning up! And this will have been a buying opp. that us without cash will have wished we could got more of what we have already in our portfollio's. Those that are sitting on cash will be saying why didn't i get in that might have been my last chance. The talking Heads keep people out and the fear rising. If Obama would just do what he is going to do with health and Fini. Reform and quite talking about it in the news the markets would react and just go on. I like bank stocks and the more they get beat up the better I like them right now, Beat them up, I will buy more, then when Obama's Adminastration leaves them alone they will go up. Spain the Euro all of that no matter how the talking heads want to explain it, is just an excuse. When the US Markets Want to Go Up Mark My words they will!
Wow, the last time the Dollar & Gold
traded in the same direction was from
Jan.2009 through the middle of Mar.2009
(heading into the infamous 666 bottom)
Stay tuned sports fans. 😉
in 1 of your last videos on gold, u had mentioned gold would not make new highs. maybe you wanna reconsider?
Farhaan,
Thank you for your feedback.
We are currently long gold and have done well on this move to the upside.
As traders you have to change with the market it is crazy not to do so. You are also referring to a video and statements I made over six weeks ago based on information that could still be true and work out.
Let's see if gold does make a new high.
All the best,
Adam
Does the past few days on the S&P 500 say anything about which may be the better way to play the triangles? The S&P got slaughtered these past few days in the Perfect Portfolio because the M triangle was still green. However, if you played the S&P as an individual stock, you made a lot going up and lost nothing on the crash. I know the Perfect Portfolio is less aggressive as you said - which I think means it is easier to follow and play. However, wouldn't you do significantly better playing each stock or symbol as an individual one, using the M & W triangles to go long, short, or sidelines? I'm just trying to understand the ins and outs before I join. So far it seems like a great system in general. Now I'm trying to figure out which way will work best for me.
Dabear,
Judging by your name I'm thinking that you have a bearish slant on the market.
This is how we trade the equity markets with our trade triangle technology. You use the monthly triangles for trend and the weekly triangles for timing. This works out very well.
All you have to do is look at the daily S&P 500 chart and put in the weekly and monthly trade triangles.
Our weekly trade triangle got members out of the equity markets several days before the market crash.
All the best,
Adam
It was obvious that a WEEKLY RED was overdue on all the major indexes...Adam you are the man!!! The trade triangles worked
To many, the down turn was expected. Yesterday shown how well technical analysis work. Also how important it is to have stop and price target.
There was sign of reversal on April 26, 3 shooting star on 3 index. I moved up all my stops that night and everything got stopped out next day with small lost. Then I watch and wait for the market to decide where it will go: bounce up or break down.
Before the index show a down turn, a few stocks already break under. I start trading the down side this week. Yesterday I enter a new trade in the morning. Price move down to my entry point and trade executed. I checked my position around 3pm. I didn't realize DOW was down 1000 point. I saw my trades hit profit target but order wasn't executed. I panic and tried to cancel the order and execute another. Bad move. The new one got stuck and old one didn't cancel. After a few minutes the orders finally went through and I had sold an extra order! Buy it back as fast as I can so I won't get into trouble.
In the end all trades were profitable. Also learn not to panic and place more orders.
Most important part, technical works. Stock bounced where they should be, right below my targets.
Still need to wait and see why DOW fall 1000 point and where the market will move.
I would agree with Ralph, that behaviour of market prices are too unpredictable. If you recieve a dividend from your stock, that would be the only attraction, yet it would have to be huge to juistify the risk of an irrational market and sitting through long time periods of hugely undervalued stock prices. People who want to retire can not justify the risk of there lifes savings being in markets that move like they markets have in the last 3 years. Can the drop like yesterday happen again? O dont see why not, which means i will rather spend my money on hard assets than give it to high frequency traders.
Market Club USO chart still has USO monthly triangle long. I would have saved a LOT of money in my Perfect Portfolio portfolio if I reversed to a short position on 5/4. Can there be better communication in the future on Market Clubs Members Perfect Portfolio position changes, e.g. crude oil.
Your call on the S&P was right on the money-congratulations.
Thanks,
Sheldon
Sheldon,
As we have said before the perfect portfolio is a long-term approach to the market. If you want to trade the markets on the shorter term basis, I strongly recommend using the monthly triangles for trend and the weekly triangles for timing. This approach is what got us out of the market on Tuesday, two days before the Thursday crash.
Thank you for your kind comments.
All the best,
Adam
What about your video saying gold will not make a new high for 8 months, that it will just meander along in a trading range?
How is it that you now say you have gold on a buy signal???
Garth,
Based on our trade triangle technology, we have been a long gold for quite some time and have done well on the current run-up.
You are also referring to a video was made over six weeks ago. That video was based on cyclic information that could still turn out to be correct. Only time will tell.
All the best,
Adam
Ralph, I like currency trading too. Why not use those technicals you use in the Forex market and apply them to equities? You would've seen this coming. The daily MACD and slow sto has been on a sell signal for two weeks and just days ago the DJIA sliced through the 30 day moving average. That's all I use, well, plus trend lines. But mostly I keep it simple and use those 3 indicators. When all three go to SELL I sell and when all three go to BUY I buy. Easy and simple. And it works.
Carl,
Congratulations. I am a firm believer in keeping it simple. They don't feel anymore that make it complicated.
All the best,
Adam
Thanks for your regular and timely insights on the market.
I am interested to know your holdings in your model portfolio. Can member's access it if it is available?
Malik
Malik,
We update the "perfect portfolio" and the "world commodity portfolio" and share the results with members on a quarterly basis.
This may change in the future and we may report on a monthly basis.
Thank you for your business and all the best.
Adam
I went short on crude and the S&P a few days ago... worked out well for me. Great Job with the shift in momentum being recognized.
The market picked up a couple of short positions for me that I was worried about, but now what to do? There seems to be no direction to the current market, except possibly down so I am staying out for awhile.
Joe
Sadly, I am done with the equity markets. It's just too damn risky and unpredictable. Who would have ever thought this would happen after months of nothing but uptrend and not even a meaning pullback to get in. I am mostly liquidated now, and will be doing nothing but currency trading from now on.
After "months of nothing but uptrend and not even a meaning (sic) pullback to get in" is exactly why one would have expected this to happen. The VIX was signaling egregious complacency for several months so one can't be surprised (along with the events in Europe) that the markets would choke.
Thank you Adam for all youu do.
You're a good man.
- Ian Cairns
What's in store for Silver?
I will pass on any silver comments. I prefer gold.
Adam
From your short position on crude oil, I assume that you would be short on USO, No?
Ken
Ken,
One market is a futures market and the other is a equity market.
We approached the futures markets with the weekly trade triangles for trend and the daily trade triangles for timing.
In the equity markets we use the monthly trade triangles for trend and the weekly trade triangles for timing.
That is the difference.
I hope this helps.
All the best,
Adam
Can you comment on the use of stop losses and what happened yesterday? I imagine a lot of people - following trade triangles - got stopped out yesterday for big losses.
Upsidedownunder,
Quite the contrary. Members who use our trade triangles did exceedingly well in the current downturn in the markets. Our trade triangle technology gave a signal to exit long equity positions on Tuesday, 4 May two days before the big decline.
All the best,
Adam
Adam,
Yesterday was scary. I like, a lot of recent traders lack the overall picture of the market. Could you give us a brief synopsis of the market?
How much of the market (a good guesstimate) does Goldman Sachs control thru their investments and their clients investments (both $ and %)?
Is it possible that one trader could push the wrong key and cause yesterday's crash?
"$500 billion down and $500 billion up"...what is the normal Dow volume in dollars?
The NASDAQ cancelled some orders. Did they only cancel buys at extremely low prices by minor investors or did they try to protect us on our stop losses?
What was the catalyst in the futures market that started this and could it be traced to one entity?
Gabby,
If the authorities can't figure it out, I don't think I can either. It was just one of those extraordinary dates when the stars aligned in the wrong direction and everybody wanted to go through the door the same time.
I'm not sure we will ever know what really happened.
Adam
Question: The graphics you use in your emails... stick man figures, etc. Where might they be obtained. Thanks.
Mark
Mark,
Trade secret.
All of us,
Adam
Adam,
As I write this we have sailed thru the 61.8% retracement levels for the Dow & S&P only a week into the turnaround. Given the historic levels of equity overvaluation, and the obvious Government PPT manipulation of the markets, I see lower lows ahead - Fibonacci notwithstanding. Where do you see the potential bottom?
Regards,
George Brown