Don't be surprised if the stock market stabilizes or bounces back in the next few days. The markets are due for a short-term rally after the dramatic drop of the last six days. This usually happens after a sell-off. But, buyer beware. Anyone who automatically assumes this is another easy "buying opportunity" should do so with caution. I don't think this is over yet and here are a couple of reasons why:
1. We are still waiting on the Fed to announce if they will raise rates in September.
2. China's stock market extended its steep losses as lower interest rates failed to halt a $5 trillion loss.
Will the market head higher or lower from here? No one really knows, but we are certainly in for a volatile ride for a while I suspect. That leads me to a simple poll question today...
Loading ...As always, take a moment to vote and leave a comment on the markets. I'd love to hear what you have to say.
Every Success,
Jeremy Lutz
INO.com and MarketClub.com
Market is fixed for next few months. Right now there is no other asset with good return to buy. So I will stick with buy major dip and hold!
Europa had there problem and is in the mud, China is in there kompany now , nex is USA i, thing that this month there is going to bee lots of changes , NASDAQ is going down.
Very proper poll subject you have choosen.
Infact, since quite long period, either it is Stocks, Precious Metals, Oil or other Commodities, all markets passing through random movement, without any applicable reasons accordingly, however, considering medium or long term views, ultimately this is a down journey, and neither Traders, investors nor so called analysts, Pundits and Economist sure about possible movement in near future, and such surety is concerned, they just cant even find confident them self about what will be going to happened next.
I agree with Jeremy.
On 24 August, before this week's rout in US stock markets and others around the world, John Hussman wrote these comments in a long article (Hussman Funds' website) and I am just quoting a few of his words here from his weekly market commentary:
"Over the years, I’ve observed that overvalued, overbought, overbullish market conditions have historically been accompanied by what I call “unpleasant skew” – a succession of small but persistent marginal new highs, followed by a vertical collapse in which weeks or months of gains are wiped out in a handful of sessions. Provided that investors are in a risk-seeking mood (which we infer from the behavior of market internals), sufficiently aggressive monetary easing can delay this tendency, by starving investors of every source of safe return, and actively encouraging further yield-seeking speculation even when valuations are obscene. Once investors become risk-averse, as deteriorating market internals have suggested in recent months, vertical declines much more extreme than last week's loss are quite ordinary. "
He also wrote in the same article:
"The same lesson has been learned and re-learned by investors across a century of market cycles. When a previously overvalued, overbought, overbullish market is joined by internal deterioration – with numerous securities, sectors, industries and securities simultaneously breaking down, accepting market risk is typically not rewarded, and stocks instead become vulnerable to air-pockets, free-falls, and crashes. Range-bound markets, particularly at elevated valuations, often offer a false sense of security; making investors believe that their risk is low because day-to-day volatility is contained. Last week's market loss was initial and quite contained from the standpoint of current valuations. My view is that under the market conditions we presently observe, investors face the continued potential for steep, vertical losses. That outlook will change as market conditions change. "
Well, on the same day as this was published , Mon 24 August 2015,(but no doubt written by John H. over the week end) , this week's market rout began.
The Fed blew a bubble in the stock markets as a consequence of their QE programs, zero interest rate policies etc etc and all bubbles burst eventually. Rounds of QE did little if anything to stimulate the real economy. For its part, the Government puts out phony GDP numbers by, in part, drastically under stating the inflation adjustment factor used so as to be able to show a higher GDP number than is really being produced. It's only fooling itself and anyone else that believes the figures to be an accurate representation of what is happening in the economy.
As the stock markets continue to roll over and the US plunge protection team intervention is overwhelmed by selling pressure, interspersed with the usual little buying bounces, I won't be surprised to see another announcement by the Fed of yet another QE program.
Then one the great bubble creators of them all, Alan Greenspan comes out recently with his bond market warning. These people are just hilarious. Don't blame me for this says Alan behind the scenes.. Yeah Alan you are a good guy for issuing a warning.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/greenspan-warns-about-bond-market-bubble-2015-08-19
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/greenspan-issues-warning-to-bond-investors-before-fed-moves
Saying that the Fed propped up the stock market with its monetary policies is a no-brainer, but denying that it did the same for other markets like housing and automobiles is ridiculous. The Fed saved America's behind with sane and desperately needed monetary policies in the face of Congressional intransigence, or worse, in addressing the problem. Clamoring for spending cuts in social programs in an economy just crawling out of the second deepest depression in the past 75 years borders on treason, and carries the same level of stupidity as the Senate's vote claiming humans don't cause climate change. It's sad that a country once so advanced and proud has been dragged down by such pathetic excuses for human beings.
I’m a definite buyer of shorting the major indexes - GFC 2 starts next month.
You need to study the shemitah and its significance to stock market crashes. The Shemitah is a biblical cycle which has its roots in Leviticus 25 where the land was to have a rest every seven years and it was also a time ‘to release’ any debts, so it means to ‘release’. Where this is significant to the stock market is crashes; Sept 2008, Sept 2001, Sept 1987 and Sept 1973 – all of these months marked the end of Shemitah years. I’ve taken it all the way back to 1931 which has the worst DOW yearly return on record. Crashes aren't always consistently in September – that seems to be a phenomenon that has become more predominant over the last three decades, however a bear market has always happened around the time of the Shemitah give or take several months.
This year’s Shemitah ends on Sunday 13th September, so I believe the date to watch is Monday 14th September when the market opens. It would not surprise me if something major happens around that time...and it’s a little over 3 weeks away. The Fed meets on Wednesday 16th-17th September and while it doesn’t sound likely they’ll raise interest rates there’s other things which could trigger a collapse like China’s market as Adam has suggested.
Knowing that a major crash is on the way the best way to play this is to short the market. My money is on ProShares Ultrashort S&P 500 (SDS) and ProShares Ultrashort Dow 30 (DXD). You may also like to buy SPXU, QID, TWN and RWN. For those in Australia which I am try BetaShares Australian Equities Bear Hedge Fund (ASX:BEAR). I think there’s a bucket load of money to be made in the above in the next several months and I hope Market Club Members can profit from them. Buy them on an up day when the dead cat bounces and sell on a bad news day when the index crashes – you will need to watch the market to time your sell.
I'm going to be playing the short side primarily at least until the end of the year. - Nevertheless, I like the few days to the week+ time frame and when the indicators say go long, I'll be long with a hair trigger. - In the end, I guess it's whatever the trend says for my time frame. - Just a note, though. I do believe that whatever the fed decision, the market will turn down on it.
I am a holder, not a buyer or a seller, so I was forced to lie and check "already on the sidelines" in your survey. I am based in the UK and bought shares in office space provider Regus this morning, 10% below Investec's target price and on them changing from a "hold" to a "buy" recommendation. I am not willing to commit more to the market. I have shares in FEET (emerging markets fund), Just Eat (fast food) and a range of mining stocks that I bought too soon. I shall hold, wait to sell at a profit and then try to use the proceeds for bottom feeding. I agree about oil for another reason. It cannot go much lower without major supply contraction and I hope the same is true of platinum, gold and other metals. Don't worry. 98.8% of my and my wife's investments and private pension are under my financial advisor's advice. She does better than me.
Right now nothing better than the brazilian fat interest rates.
I doing a Buffet on this one..holding...not buying, not selling..very satisfied with my investment holdings. On the sidelines as for trading.
What a DUMB question ! ! ! I am a buyer or a seller depending on the INDIVIDUAL stock or index, and I am currently doing both, depending on how I interpret the chart for the particular underlying in question. This is why I completely ignore all the noise on CNBC and anywhere else the "experts" are yakking. I just got A "hot tip" in my email to sell the GILD current weekly 105 / 104 put spread, and when I looked at the stock, GILD was at $104.05! I'm just typing as fast as I can to put in that order, . . . NOT! Keep your heads, read the charts, and trust YOURSELVES! Good luck!
I am a buyer! All the noise will be gone by end of the week and markets will be a lot higher from the current levels in coming weeks. Oil has very little room to go down as retail investors will jump in to buy and hold for long term and the then hedge funds will be forced to buy.
buyer or seller? vague question. will i buy AAPL? no. will i buy a gold related name? yes. will i buy an energy related name? yes. froth stocks or financials? no
Any interest rate increase by the Fed would be premature by at least a year. The recovery is too fragile, and the intransigence of the lunatics in Congress to spend money on anything but the war machine is insane. Raising interest rates at this time would be begging for depression.
There will not be any rate hike at all. The real crisis is currency crisis waiting to unfold.
I agree there will not be a rate hike, because there is no need for one. The currency crisis has been "any day now" for the past 50 or more years, and could well go on another hundred. But when it happens - the ones who have been saying it is right around the corner for 50 years will be thumping their chests, and saying "I told you so. NOW buy my newsletter!" ROTFLMAO.
one in the tank, china, Europe next, then, we have found the enemy, and it is us
It ain't me babe 😉