A little while ago we made a video that projected some amazing levels for gold. Given the strong upward trend in gold and the price action on Tuesday the 5th of October, it is worthwhile looking at this video again.
This is a short video, but it will certainly give you some interesting price targets for gold that are based on sound trading principles. I hope you enjoy the video, and as always we would love to have your feedback on our blog.
The video is free to watch and there are no registration requirements.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President of INO.com and co-founder of MarketClub
What has driven the price of gold to over $1300? The value of the dollar, as priced against the basket of other currencies is about the same now as it was a couple of years ago. It has peaked a couple of times in the past 2 years but is down in the "valley| at the moment.
I suggest that the SPDR, GLD has a lot to do with the price increase. Investors have flocked to get on board the "own your own gold" wagon in droves. People that never had any convenient way to hoard the precious metal have bought in and the SPDR, GLD, has supposedly gone out and bought the gold and stuck it in a vault to cover the approximately %50 Billion Dollars investors have thrown at them. I would hazard a guess that most of those Billions would not have bought gold is it weren't for the SPDR. Some are probably Gold coin collectors that would have bought physical that way, but I still think most of the gold held by GLD is new money.
The ease with which one can buy and sell gold with the advent of the SPDR is a relatively new phenomena. A person can buy GLD in the AM and sell in the PM, buy on Monday and sell on Friday or buy and hold for years, all without seeing or touching anything but the keyboard of their computer. One has to wonder how much a part of the recent gold bull market is because of the advent of GLD? They must compete for the metal in the open market.
Seeing shorting opportunity : Watch DZZ and ZSL (and soybeans) A big drop in soybeans, will drive silver down. HI HO SILVER!
The comments and projections are fair, but don't take into account the possibility that what we are in the process of experiencing are secular shifts in the whole financial system. Say what you want about gold. Maybe it goes up and maybe it goes down. But regardless, the debt-based monetary system and all of the pyramid schemes in the financial system that go along with it seem to be coming down. They keep working until they don't, and as it stands right now, they seem to be at the verge of not working at all. I view this as long term bullish for gold, and very long term bearish for paper/digital assets. Yes, that includes your brokerage account balance.
I still remember your video about how gold is not going to make new highs in the next 18 months. I guess you were wrong!
Niall,
Thank you for your feedback.
If you remember that video which is very old you should also remember that we are traders and have been long gold for quite sometime. We always go with the trends. That is what makes successful traders.
All the best,
Adam
I called a sell last week and to short gld and slv. Today, was the peak boys and girls. the future is bright for you goldbugs and i agree its got a long way to go. Think $3000. but, today marked a top! as i stated: the top is in when the gold stocks drop before the price of gold at a top. Conversely, the bottom will be when the metal stocks advance and gld and slv keep dropping. the key to buying silver is very simple. soybeans and silver always ride the same horse. like the masked man and tonto! high ho silver! Adam: please do a study of soybeans and the price of silver. You will be amazed!
Thanks Adam. The option route reduces exposure a bit as long as you understand the time value risk. Delta is your friend too!
Gold and Silver are really doing well. I am getting some good leverage buying Jan "11 calls on SLV and GLD. This tells it all:
SLV 01/22/2011 13.00 C
CALL ISHARES SILVER TR $13 EXP 01/22/11
100 contracts
$9.65 Today's price
$96,500.00 total
+2.66%
+$2,500.00
$61,083.95 Cost (May)
+57.98% Unrealized gain
+$35,416.05
---
Trade
GLD 01/22/2011 80.00 C
CALL SPDR GOLD TRUST $80 EXP 01/22/11
10 Contracts
$51.02 Today
$51,020.00
$42,416.45 cost
+20.28% Unrealized gain
+$8,603.55
------------
I have 3 accounts with the same invested in each.
Total
$442,560.00 Today
Up
1.72% Today
$7,500.00
$310,401.20 Cost
42.58% Unrealized gain, 3 accounts.
$132,158.80
I am positioned to capture Gold's expected gains and can take the longer view now with a winner. Next month I will move out to June or July contracts.
Good trading!
Marcus,
Keep up the good work.
Adam
I beliave gold will be going up till EUR/USD will, as soon EUR/USD start to drop, gold will follow.
Regards,
I have a question for those who care to add their input. Why are the projected levels for further upside in the Gold market in raw numbers as opposed to targets being drawn in percentage moves per the previous upswings?
Chris,
That's a very good question. Perhaps you would like to do some homework and presented on the blog.
All the best,
Adam
Watched video. Possible, but ridiculous yes.
Trading on practical rational might make "sense" but rarely does it become profitable.
His assumption is the core of the argument. That gold must stay in line with printed currency. He mentions TWO cases in the history of his tracking for 100 years where this has happened. The fallacy of the case is that it doesn't track 1 for 1... Why are there periods where they don't track? Why do they diverge? Why has gold waited 20 years to rise? Did the public not know about the inflation?
"If history repeats".... Two times doesn't make a reliable pattern, IMHO.
Erik,
Thank you for your feedback.
In trading practically everything is possible and impossible at the same time. Markets tend to go to high on the upside and to low on the downside. I would much rather rely on MarketClub's Trade Triangle technology than counting on history to repeat itself exactly. I'm sure you have heard this before but it always comes out as " it's different this time" it's always different each time, but human nature being what it is tends to repeat the same mistakes over and over again.
All the best, and thank you for using our blog.
Adam
Just started 30 free trial,still finding my way around.But its looking good.I like the alerts.Thanks Adam,wish I had started sooner
Thanks a lot for everything!!
Back in October I believe you did an analysis of the pivot that predicted a target of 1325 or so. How do you feel about that analysis now? Is the technique still valid?
Upsidedownunder,
Thank you for your feedback.
The major upward trend in gold continues to be positive. That does not mean that we can't have some pullbacks and see some further buying opportunities. In technical analysis you continually evaluate what the market is doing and markets tend to fall into patterns and fall out of patterns reflecting the sentiment of traders.
The one item I would focus on is MarketClubs "Trade Triangle" technology. As they don't ring a bell at the top of any market you must rely on technical indicators to telegraph when sentiment has changed in the marketplace. When that happens you need to make that change as well. The video that you are referring to "The ultimate price target for gold" is not something that is carved in granite, and is an analysis of what the gold market has done in the past and the type of swings it has had.
I hope this helps.
All the best,
Adam
no comments yet
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckFfzoplC-I
Here is the case for gold at $15,000.00/oz as explained by Mike Maloney of GoldSilver.com & Robert Kiyosaki of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" fame. Ridiculous you say? Open the link and watch this video before comong to any conclusions.................
hello Adam, crude oil perspective would be nice
Adam, you keep calling the top and so far you have been proven wrong over and over and .......
Adam, you just rock. I'm an ex member, but am planning on coming back. After tracking quite a few others, no one else is getting it better than you are, and I've checked them all. Yes, the trade triangles are a little slow when the markets are in panic mode, but over time, no question, no one is beating you, or even close. I did the 52 week high on fri thing as you suggested, was kind of disappointed Monday, but hey, just a day off -- that's darned good. If one follows this, with good money and risk management (which Adam stresses now and then) you WILL make a lot of money. Plenty to pay for a re-up....
Thanks for all the good advice over the years. Of all those who are in this game, you seem the most honest, not trying to get me to buy what you are wanting to sell (or vice versa), but to teach me how to do well. I hope that what goes around comes around (it does!) for you.
Doug,
Thank you very much your kind words. Very much appreciated.
Adam