Author: Matt Thalman

ETFs for a Strong Dollar

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, we have seen a dramatic increase in the US dollar. The main reason is that the dollar is becoming a more attractive investment for investors at home and worldwide.

There are a lot of dynamics at play that investors need to consider when the dollar is rising. Such as, a rising dollar will hurt domestic companies that sell internationally because the exchange rate lowers their profits. However, companies that import raw materials will benefit from a strong dollar.

Due to the strong dollar, some emerging markets will suffer if they borrow in dollars. This happens because it becomes harder for borrowers to pay back their debt as the dollar strengthens. Furthermore, these same countries can get hit with a double whammy if they also import many US goods since those goods will now be more expensive.

Let us look at a few Exchange Traded Funds that you can buy that will help your portfolio weather this strong dollar storm.

I would like to mention the first two ETFs are also rather obvious picks. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) and the WisdomTree Bloomberg US Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU) both are long the US dollar against a basket of other global currencies.

In plain English, these funds increase when the dollar rises and decline when the dollar declines compared to other international currencies. There is no magic here and nothing fancy going on; if you think the dollar is going higher, buy one of these two funds and hold it for a while.

Another set of ETFs you could buy are dividend-paying ones. Something like SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD), the WisdomTree US High Dividend Fund (DHS), or my favorite, the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL).

These will typically do well when the dollar rises for a few reasons, mainly because the stronger dollar will likely hit the earnings of companies with large exports. But, as companies, especially those in the Dividend Aristocrat group, are very reluctant to cut their dividends, the stock prices of these firms usually hold up better than the non-dividend paying stocks. Continue reading "ETFs for a Strong Dollar" →

New ETFs Worth Knowing About

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Over the last 25 years, Exchange Traded Funds have seen incredible growth in the number of offerings. The increase is due to the high demand from investors, and because of this, ETF issuers are constantly coming up with new products they feel investors will want.

For example, in September this year, we saw 53 brand-new Exchange Traded Funds offered to investors. As you can see, this seems like issuers are essentially throwing a lot at the wall to see what will stick and what will not.

For the individual investor, it can be hard to dig through all the new offerings and determine which are viable investments and which are unlikely to produce market-beating returns. Today I will point out a few recent ETFs that I think are worth digging deeper into and, at the very least worth knowing, are available for investors to buy.

The first is the Direxion Daily Electric and Autonomous Vehicles Bull 2X Shares ETF (EVAV). This ETF is a two-times leveraged investment focused on the electric vehicle and autonomous driving industry.

We recently saw New York state following California's lead, which will not allow new gas-burning vehicles to be sold in the state starting in 2035. With two of the largest states in the country moving towards banning sales of internal combustion engine-powered vehicles, the only option drivers will have in those states is to buy electric vehicles, pushing demand for EVs higher.

Furthermore, it is unlikely that all states in the US will make these laws with the same timeline, the year 2035, but it is hard to deny that other states won't follow along in some form or fashion.

It also should be noted that the mass adoption of EVs is still probably years away. So while you look at EVAV, investors need to remember that it is a leveraged product. Meaning contango will occur, and thus EVAV is not an investment that should be held for long periods of time.

If you are looking for an ETF that you can buy today and have for decades to come, something like the iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF (IDRV) would be an excellent place to start looking.

Next, I would like to point out the Defiance Daily Short Digitizing the Economy ETF (IBIT). The IBIT is an actively managed fund-of-funds that will offer inverse exposure to the Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF (BLOK). BLOK is an ETF that owns companies focusing on blockchain technology. Continue reading "New ETFs Worth Knowing About" →

Sugar-Coating the Likelihood of a Recession

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Does anyone remember when then President Donald Trump told the American population that the Covid-19 lockdowns and spread of the virus that caused the pandemic would all be over by Easter? Or when referring to Covid-19, that it was “the flu”?

During the first few weeks of the pandemic, President Donald Trump downplayed the severity of the virus to not panic the American population. In hindsight, perhaps the early days, especially when the country was in lockdown, it would have been more beneficial to not sugar-coat the virus and the timeline of when the government would lift the lockdown restrictions.

Had President Donald Trump told people the virus would kill hundreds of thousands of people, perhaps we could have stopped the virus from spreading during the lockdowns.

If President Trump hadn’t given a timeline for the lockdowns and the pandemic seeing brighter days, perhaps the government wouldn’t have lost its creditability with so many Americans during the summer of 2020 and its continued response to the pandemic.

Our current situation with the Federal Reserve and its chairman Jerome Powell, is very reminiscent of the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Back in the winter and early spring, Powell told us that inflation was “transitory” and wouldn’t last. He even said current inflation wouldn’t need aggressive monetary policy changes to fall. Then, even when Powell began to raise interest rates, he told Americans that there was a high probability of a soft landing, referring to the idea that the Fed could bring down inflation slowly and gently.

Powell continued to tell us this summer that raising interest rates gradually and methodically would lower inflation but not put the economy in a recession.

Fast forward to just a week ago, and Powell tells us that the “chances of a soft landing are likely to diminish.” Inflation has hardly moved even though the Fed has raised interest rates five times, starting in March 2022. At that time, the Fed increased rates by 0.25%, 0.50% in May, then a 0.75% bump in June, July, and September.

Powell also said at the most recent Fed press conference following its announcement of the September rate hike that “we have to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn’t." Continue reading "Sugar-Coating the Likelihood of a Recession" →

Apple Just Entered the Space Race

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Over the past few years, many big technology companies have entered the space race, whether it was Amazon's (AMZN) Jeff Bezos with Blue Horizon, Tesla's (TSLA) Elon Musk with Space X, or Alphabet's (GOOG) satellite internet service, which will be competing with Space X Starlink internet service.

Now the newest technology company to enter space is Apple (AAPL), but in a slightly different way than the others.

On September 7th, Apple released its newest iPhone, the iPhone 14. One of the key features of this new device is the Emergency SOS via satellite feature. This feature allows iPhone 14 owners to contact emergency services via satellites in an emergency when the individual does not have traditional cellular telephone service.

This feature could be a game changer during natural disasters and cell towers are knocked out. Those in need of help will be able to contact first responders with their location, health status, and other pertinent information to help save lives.

Apple is subcontracting the satellite service with a company called Globalstar (GSAT) which already has a network of satellites in outer space for which Apple iPhone 14 and newer phones will be able to access.

The Emergency SOS satellite service will be free for the first two years of owning the iPhone 14; after that time, there will be a price associated with the service, but those details are unknown now.

With more and more of the major technology companies entering space in some form or fashion, it is not hard to see that aerospace technology and the companies currently operating in that industry will benefit from the shift.

That is why I believe you should consider investing a small portion of your portfolio in the aerospace industry. And one of the best ways to gain broad access to any sector is using exchange-traded funds. So, let us look at a few ETFs you can own today, which will give you access to the aerospace industry. Continue reading "Apple Just Entered the Space Race" →

ARKK Fund's Wild Ride

Posted on by Matt Thalman

After its first year of trading in 2015, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) increased by 87.38% in 2017!

The fund produced a gain of 3.76% in 2015 and a small loss of 1.96% in 2016, all of a sudden, the boom in 2017! 2017 was followed up by another modest gain of just 3.58% in 2018. But in 2019, ARKK made 35.73%.

Then, despite 2020 being the year we will all remember the Covid-19 pandemic beginning in the United States and the stock markets crashing when the country shut down in an attempt to slow the spread of the deadly virus, ARKK showed its investors a return of 152.52%.

Unfortunately, in 2021, the fund did not perform as well, actually posting a loss of 23.35% for the year. And while we still have a few months left in 2022, year-to-date ARKK is down 49.17%.

Even though 2021 and 2022 have not been good to ARKK, the fund is still up an annualized 16% over the last five years. That is due to the incredible performance it experienced in 2019 and 2020.

Since its inception, some would say ARKK has been somewhat volatile. That is primarily due to the fund's lead investor, Cathie Woods, and how she takes what many would consider 'very long-shot bets.' Woods often invests in unproven technologies and companies trying to develop cutting-edge technology.

Cathie Woods believes the future of technology will, if it already hasn't, truly change the world. By looking at the performance of not just her flagship fund, ARKK, her other funds all focus on the same idea; finding innovative companies. But that comes with risk.

And Cathie Woods' ARK funds have a lot of risk in them. If the companies Woods invests in don't perform well, Woods funds take big hits. But, the other side of this coin is also at play. Continue reading "ARKK Fund's Wild Ride" →