Category: INO.com Contributors

ARK Investments ETFs Have Been Top Performers

Posted on by Matt Thalman

After a historic November, the best month the market has seen since January 1987, I found an interesting Exchange Traded Fund trend; one ETF manager has three of the top ten best performing ETFs of 2020. Furthermore, what makes this one fund manager even more impressive is this performance when you run the screener and leave leveraged funds in play, even though none of the ARK Invest funds are leveraged products themselves.

So not only are these three funds not leveraged and therefore exposing you to more risk than you may want, but they are beating other leveraged funds. One of the main ways ARK is likely to show excellent results in 2020 is its different way of thinking about investing. They state on their website this belief.

"Not Your Traditional Investment Manager

The world is changing rapidly. While traditional investors seek safety in benchmarks and passive strategies, ARK believes this behavior is counterproductive. Innovation is causing disruption and the risks associated with the traditional world order are rising. We strive to invest at the pace of innovation"

The fund managers certainly see themselves as a little different than others on Wall Street, and this year has undoubtedly proven what they are doing is beating the rest of the pack.

So, how great was the performance of Ark's fund thus far? Continue reading "ARK Investments ETFs Have Been Top Performers" →

Futures Market Continues To Push Higher

Posted on by Mike Seery

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 24.09 an ounce while currently trading at 26.10 up over $2 for the trading week as prices have now hit a 3 month high and will look to test the $30 level in the coming weeks ahead.

If you have been following my previous blogs, you understand that I have been keeping a close eye on silver as I think sharply higher prices are ahead as I have now been recommending a bullish position from around the 26.05 level. If you took that trade, continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low standing around the 24.30 level as an exit strategy as the volatility will increase tremendously in the coming weeks ahead.

The entire precious metals sector looks to move higher as the U.S. dollar has now hit a fresh two-year low. That trend is getting stronger to the downside weekly because the United States government continues to print money at an unprecedented rate. That is an extremely bullish fundamental factor towards silver and the entire commodity market as a whole.

I believe the $30 level will be breached in the coming weeks ahead. I still believe the $50 level, which is the all-time high, will be tested as extremely low-interest rates coupled with the fact that the U.S government wants asset classes to rise, which means you trade with the path of least resistance and that currently is to the upside as I see no reason to be short.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Natural Gas Futures

Natural gas futures in the January contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.59 while currently trading at 2.70, up slightly for the trading week. It looks to me that a bottom finally has been formed as we enter the highly volatile winter months. Continue reading "Futures Market Continues To Push Higher" →

Irrational Exuberance?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The broader indices have been in a raging bull market since the COVID-19 induced lows in March of 2020. The rally has been largely uninterrupted, with minor blimps in September and October before reaching all-time highs by early December. The initial rally was narrowly focused on technology and the stay-at-home economy stocks. With the improving vaccine prospects, November saw a sea change with broad market participation with value stocks breaking out with huge moves to the upside. To boot, massive stimulus coming out of Washington is being priced into the markets. All three major indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones) are at all-time highs. Are stocks overextended underpinned by irrational exuberance considering the damaging economic consequences that COVID-19 inflicted on the worldwide economy? Are markets getting ahead of themselves as investors bet on a return to normal for the global economy? Stretched valuations, options put/call ratios, broad participation, and P/E ratios may be potential warning signs of near-term pressures.

irrational exuberance

Fundamentals – Lofty P/E Ratios

Price-to-Earnings ratios are largely discordant with the economic backdrop and at historically lofty levels. Outside of the tech bubble in 1999/2000, the current P/E ratio of the S&P 500 composite is the highest on record, exceeding that of the Roaring Twenties (Figure 1). Continue reading "Irrational Exuberance?" →

Chart Analysis: A Bigger Picture View Of HUI

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

In NFTRH we did a lot of work managing the oncoming correction, the valid reasons behind it (these reasons are beyond the scope of this post but don’t listen to the perma-bulls, they were more than valid and readable in advance), the now nearly 5-month-old correction (technically still intact) and more recently the improved risk vs. reward after HUI hit our long-standing ‘best’ target of 280 +/-.

There is another downside target at 260 +/- but it may just be time for the drudgery (AKA consolidation/correction to bleed out the excesses) to end. The answer to confirm that will be left to ongoing work we do on shorter time frames, including daily charts in the weekly report and in-week updates. But for this post, I want to take a perspective look at HUI’s weekly chart.

This is an old chart we used to manage the previous bull market top and long road down to the depths of the bear, in lockdown by the 55 week EMA. With the excitement happening during FOMC week, as the Fed tells us all what we already knew (it’s funny munny for as far as the eye can see, or at least as long as the Continuum permits) it pays to have some bigger picture perspective while positioning.

I think it is a notable, if minor, positive that Huey has so far held the EMA 55 for the first time on the way up as it had held below it during the worst of the bear market on the way down. It never hurts to see things rhyme when using TA. Of more importance, HUI has held the first layer of support on the predictable pullback from all too clear resistance at 375 (a target we had loaded since mid-2019).

The 260 +/- target also includes strong weekly chart support and until the downward consolidation from Continue reading "Chart Analysis: A Bigger Picture View Of HUI" →

Marijuana ETFs are Moving

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Since the elections in early November, marijuana stocks and marijuana ETFs have been moving higher at a healthy clip. Now may be a perfect time for investors who have been waiting to get into this industry but didn’t want to be too early.

The moves come after four States passed the legalization of recreational marijuana use, which now brings the total number of US States to 15 that allow citizens to consume marijuana in essentially the same manner that someone’s consumers alcohol.

Furthermore, 2 more States passed laws allowing marijuana to be used for medical purposes. Now the US has 35 States that allow medical marijuana usage.

Another catalyst is that with Vice President Joe Biden winning the White House, many believe the push for national level decriminalization of marijuana is more likely to occur. This is even though the Republicans still control the Senate.

Finally, as I have mentioned before, with the pandemic and massive budget deficits occurring all around the country, State and local governments, and even perhaps the Federal government may start looking at alternative ways to increase tax revenue. One easy avenue is to allow marijuana use and place a hefty tax on it, as the government already does with alcohol and tobacco sales. As things currently sit in most States, those that have not passed the legalization of recreational use would argue that marijuana is being sold; it’s just not being taxed. Most politicians would probably agree with that to some extent, and some would undoubtedly love to get some more tax money, especially during times like these. Continue reading "Marijuana ETFs are Moving" →