Is this Hedge Fund manager the next Warren Buffett?

Edward S. Lampert has made no secret of wanting to follow in the footsteps of his hero, Warren E. Buffett. Like the Sage of Omaha, Lampert formed a partnership at age 25 and invested in old-line companies that throw off lots of cash. And just as Buffett did with Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Lampert gained control of bankrupt discounter Kmart Corp. last year, hinting he would turn it into a powerful investment vehicle. Then, on Nov. 17, Lampert swooped in and launched an $11 billion purchase of Sears, Roebuck & Co. (SHLD).

Read the full story here

Has Fast Eddie lost his golden touch?

We don't think so but in the short term Mr. Lampert has two major problems on his hands Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD) and Citi (C) It may be a while before he shines with these two iconic giants. Now Mr. Lambert is a very patient investor and both Sears and Citi are great franchises that normally churn out cash like a printing machine. So it was a shock when Sears Holdings Corp reported sharply lower third-quarter profits on Thursday, plummeting its shares down more than 14 percent to new lows.


It's good enough for these well know guys.

For moguls like Michael Dell and David Geffen, Edward S. (Eddie) Lampert is the go-to money manager. The brightest minds on Wall Street piggyback his trades. Just 43, he's a self-made billionaire who mixes bets on down-and-out investments with unnatural patience. No one has more faith in Eddie than Eddie. Which may explain why he's so comfortable leading Wall Street in the new world of high finance, one in which hedge funds like his and giant buyout firms are going toe-to-toe in the arena known as private equity. Lampert is part of the new breed of hedgies who have gone from passive investing to actively buying and managing firms to seek outsize returns.

Read the full story here


Eddie Lampert has a great long-term track record, but can he run big companies?
We are going to wait until both Sears and CITI reverse their current down trends and are in clear uptrends before we go long.

We have never been strong fans of catching falling knives or trying to pick bottom bottoms in a market.


Adam Hewison

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Stocks up, Crude down ... what's going on here???

Stocks up, Crude down ... what's going on here???

What we witnessed today was a massive short covering rally in the equity markets. You've heard us say this before, bears make the best bulls, and that's exactly what happend in the equity markets today.

The scramble to cover short positions in financial equities signaled an unwinding of the oil/equity spread.

Traders covered short equities and in turn liquidate long positions in crude exiting what had been a dream trade.


It is very seldom you see the market participants so heavily stacked one way for so long. Long crude - short financials. What's causing all this volatility? I am going to point to the SEC's removal of the "Up Tick Rule". To get a better understanding of the importance of this rule watch this short video.

However, one day does not make a market, or a trend.

Also fueling the equity fire, was Donald Kohn of the Fed, hinting that the FED may cut interest rates again. Do you remember what happened last time the Fed cut rates? The market rallied for a couple of days and then promptly tanked.

The message here is be careful what you wish for.

Here's how I see it.

Equity Indexes = wide trading range

DOW: resistance 14,000 support 12,750
________________________

Crude Oil = wide trading range

Crude resistance 99.00 support 90.00

Thursday and Friday should make for interesting trading. Look for continued volatility and markets that are skittish at best.

As always remain diversified and disciplined.


Adam Hewison

Here's your sixth lesson


Good Wednesday Morning everyone!
I pray everyone had an enjoyable Thanksgiving...
and BLACK FRIDAY! Do you agree with the term
"Cyber Monday"? I heard a figure like 65% of the
workforce will be losing productivity this past Monday.
I for one was NOT one of them!

Here's your sixth lesson in "The Secrets Of
Professional Floor Traders" mini email course.

Lesson 6 - "Point-and-Figure Charts"
presented by Adam Hewison
================================================================

This particular technique has been around for over one
hundred years. So you might say it has stood the test
of time. I first saw it used on the floor of The Chicago
Mercantile Exchange by some very successful traders.
Since then I have seen very few other traders using it
despite the fact that it is amazingly accurate.

This is a true gem of a lesson and not to be missed.

Because this lesson contains charts, it has been posted
here.

Point-and-Figure Charts

P.S. Look out for the next lesson - "The RSI Indicator"
This is a powerful indicator that is heavily watched
by the pros.

Google's Muddy Retreat

From The Chart Room
Google's Muddy Retreat
Adam Hewison, INO.com 11.27.07, 3:00 PM ET

Google, the darling of the tech stocks, endured a nasty price fall earlier this month. And despite a week of apparent recovery, traders remain bearish about its near-term prognosis. Expectations are for the stock to stay in a wide trading range instead of resuming its bull run to new highs.

On Nov. 8, Google had its sharpest one-day point move for the year, dropping more than $37--a 5% loss for the day. In addition to ending what had been an amazing bull run for Google, the move triggered a key indicator, the Daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence line (MACD), to turn negative the next day for the first time since Aug. 23.

While several other indicators continue to predict a strong uptrend for Google, traders often pay close attention to the MACD to identify the beginning of trend reversals for stocks that have been in a long bull or bear run. The reversal of this indicator, coupled with the current Fibonacci retracements--also relevant to Google, as they are generally used to understand stocks that achieve new highs followed closely by a steep fall--signify that we likely won't see Google rebounding anytime soon.

As you can see in the chart above, the Daily MACD reversal on Nov. 9 was the first indication that the stock was in trouble.

This lagging indicator uses moving averages to alert traders to both the momentum and direction of a trend. For stocks in a strong trend, the indicator can be understood by a crossover system: When one line crosses the other, it signifies a change in trend.


Until the red line re-crosses the green line, we can expect to see relatively flat movement in the price of the stock, confirming that Google posted a top at $747.24 on Nov. 7.

The end of Google's impressive run and the development of a new top are confirmed by the Fibonacci retracement numbers, which show a resistance level for the stock at $697.55.

The horizontal lines that make up the Fibonacci retracements signal support and resistance levels. They are calculated based on percentages of motion between the most recent high and low--the three most commonly used being 62% (or specifically 61.8%), 50% and 38% (or specifically 38.2%).

When a stock reaches a new high and then falls to a support level, it typically retraces some portion of its upward trajectory until it faces resistance at one of the Fibonacci retracements.

In the case of Google, with a high established at $747.24 and a low put in place at $616.02, the following retracements are derived: 38% equals $665.32, 50% equals $681.93 and finally, 62% equals $697.55.

Yesterday's price reversal near the upper Fibonacci retracement level illustrates the resistances Google will face before it continues its climb to the top, set at $747.24.

In the short term, look for traders to proceed with caution when it comes to Google. We expect that Google will have to do a great deal more backing and filling south of the upper band (62%) of the Fibonacci levels. We would avoid trying to pick a bottom and would only consider going long Google when the Moving Average Convergence Divergence turns positive.

Adam Hewison is president of INO.com. More of Hewison's charts and analysis are available at MarketClub and Ino.com.


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