After months of sluggish economic growth and fears of missing its growth targets, China has unveiled a sweeping set of stimulus measures aimed at reviving its economy. These policies included cuts to interest rates, loans to investors and companies for stock buybacks, and promises of substantial fiscal support. The People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) coordinated efforts are aimed at reducing borrowing costs and boosting confidence in an economy struggling with issues like the ongoing property crisis and high youth unemployment.
Despite some analysts questioning the long-term sustainability of the stimulus, the market has responded with enthusiasm. Mainland China's CSI 300 Index surged 8.5%, marking its best performance since 2008, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 4.2%.
As these aggressive policies aim to jump-start the struggling economy, the impact could reach far beyond China's borders, with global tech stocks poised to benefit significantly. Companies like Apple Inc. (AAPL), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), and QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) rely on China not only for manufacturing but also as a major consumer market. With lower interest rates and improved liquidity in China, demand for tech products could surge, directly benefiting these tech giants.
Furthermore, the PBOC’s promise of potential fiscal stimulus adds another layer of optimism. If China follows through on its hints of trillion yuan-level spending, particularly in infrastructure and technology sectors, it could further boost global tech companies that provide critical components for these developments.
Many are drawing parallels to 2008 when China’s swift and massive stimulus response to the global financial crisis jump-started not only its economy but also helped boost global demand. However, that stimulus left China with long-term challenges, including local government debt, overcapacity, and excess housing.
While some investors remain cautious after past false starts, the current stimulus package has injected new optimism into the market. Tech stocks, in particular, offer an attractive opportunity as lower interest rates make them more appealing for investors seeking higher returns. Therefore, fundamentally sound stocks like AAPL, NVDA, TSM, and QCOM could be worth considering for those looking to tap into the potential upside driven by China’s recovery efforts.
Stock to Hold:
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
With China being one of Apple's largest markets for premium tech products, the country’s economic recovery could stimulate demand for iPhones, MacBooks, and other high-end devices. Lower interest rates and improved liquidity might encourage consumers to invest in Apple’s premium offerings, further driving the company's revenue in this region.
For the third quarter of fiscal 2024, which ended June 29, 2024, AAPL’s total net sales increased 4.9% year-over-year to $85.78 billion, with $14.73 billion in sales from Greater China. Its gross margin rose 8.9% from the year-ago value to $39.68 billion, while its operating income came in at $25.35 billion, up 10.2% year-over-year. On the bottom line, AAPL’s net income and EPS amounted to $21.45 billion and $1.40, representing increases of 7.9% and 11.1%, respectively, from the prior year’s quarter.
Street expects AAPL’s revenue for the current year (ended September 2024) to increase marginally from the prior year to $390.52 billion, while its EPS is expected to grow by 9.2% year-over-year to $6.69. For the fiscal year 2025, both revenue and EPS are anticipated to reach $419.84 billion and $7.41, indicating a 7.5% and 10.7% year-over-year growth, respectively.
Shares of the dominant tech player have surged more than 36% over the past year and approximately 21% year-to-date. Also, its 12-month price target of $248.07 reflects a 6.5% potential upside.
However, while the outlook is promising, investors should remain cautious of geopolitical tensions that could affect production and sales. Ongoing U.S.-China trade disputes may disrupt Apple’s supply chain, leading to increased costs or delays. As Apple relies heavily on Chinese manufacturing, any escalation in tensions could pose risks to its market performance.
Stocks to Buy:
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
With the frenzy around Artificial intelligence (AI) in the stock market, the AI darling Nvidia has been on an impressive run this year. The stock has surged over 145% year-to-date and nearly 179% in the past 12 months, thanks to the robust demand for its graphics processing units (GPUs), which help run and train AI algorithms.
Nvidia’s revenue for the second quarter that ended July 28, 2024, increased 122% year-over-year to $30.04 billion and exceeded the analysts’ expectations of $28.75 billion. The company's bottom line also remained buoyant, with operating income surging 174% from the year-ago value to $18.64 billion. NVDA’s non-GAAP net income amounted to $16.95 billion or $0.68 per share, compared to $6.74 billion or $0.27 per share in the previous year’s quarter, respectively.
Moreover, analysts remain bullish on the chipmaker’s long-term prospects. For the fiscal year ending January 2025, NVDA’s revenue and EPS are expected to grow by 106.1% and 119.2% from the prior year to $125.54 billion and $2.84, respectively.
Furthermore, out of 42 analysts that rated NVDA, 39 rated it Buy, while three rated it Hold. The 12-month median price target of $152.44 indicates a 25.5% upside potential from the last closing price. As China accelerates its focus on artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing, this stock could boost your portfolio returns significantly.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)
As China's tech sector surges, demand for semiconductors is set to soar, potentially contributing nearly 19% to the country’s GDP by 2026. Headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan, TSM manufactures, tests, and markets integrated circuits and other semiconductor products globally. Its products are used in automotive electronics, high-performance computing, and mobile device markets.
TSM’s net sales increased 40.1% year-over-year to NT$673.51 billion ($21.25 billion) in the second quarter that ended June 30, 2024. Its gross profit grew 37.6% from the prior year’s quarter to NT$358.13 billion ($11.29 billion), while its income from operations came in at NT$286.56 billion ($9.04 billion), up 41.9% year-over-year. In addition, the company’s net income and EPS increased 36.3% year-over-year to NT$247.85 billion ($7.82 billion) and NT$9.56, respectively.
The consensus EPS estimate of $6.60 for the current year ending December 2024 represents a 27.4% improvement year-over-year. The consensus revenue estimate of $88.40 billion for the same period indicates a 29.1% increase from the prior year.
Moreover, the stock has gained more than 99% over the past year, which is impressive. Its 12-month price target of $205 reflects an 18.4% potential upside.
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM specializes in foundational technologies for the wireless industry. The company operates through three segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies; Qualcomm Technology Licensing; and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives.
QCOM’s revenue increased marginally year-over-year to $9.39 billion in the fiscal second quarter (ended March 24, 2024). Its non-GAAP net income grew 14.1% from the year-ago value to $2.76 billion, while its EBIT rose 31.8% year-over-year to $2.49 billion over the period. The company’s non-GAAP EPS increased 13.5% from the year-ago value to $2.44.
Buoyed by its strong financial performance, the company paid a quarterly dividend of $0.85 per common share to its shareholders on September 26, 2024. QCOM pays an annual dividend of $3.40, which translates to a 2% yield on the current price. Plus, it has a payout ratio of 34.1%.
Street expects QCOM’s revenue for the fourth quarter (ended September 2024) to increase 13.8% from the prior year to $9.86 billion. Its EPS for the same period is expected to grow by 26.1% year-over-year to $2.55. It is no surprise that the company has topped the revenue and EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.
Over the past year, the stock has returned nearly 50%. Moreover, out of 21 analysts that rated QCOM, 13 rated it Buy, while seven rated it Hold. The 12-month median price target of $218.25 indicates a 31.3% upside potential from the last closing price.
