Predictive Modeling Suggests A New Gold Rally

One of our readers’ favorite tools is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system. This tool maps out technical and price patterns into an array of similar setups using historical data, then applies that data to current and future price bars. Using the ADL predictive modeling tool, we can see into the future based on historical technical analysis that maps statistically relevant price activity and shows us the highest probability outcomes.

Monthly ADL Gold Predictions

In this research article, we’re going to focus on Gold and how current price action suggests a bottom is likely near the $1720 level. The YELLOW price channels on this Monthly Gold chart highlight exactly where we believe support is located for Gold. If this $1700 price level is breached to the downside, then the previous lows, near $1400, are the next support level for Gold.

Our ADL predictive modeling system suggests the $1720 support level will hold, prompting a new rally to levels above $2200 within 30 to 60+ days. The ADL system predicts an aggressive move in Gold near May or June 2021. The move higher may happen earlier than the ADL Monthly predictions indicate. There is a chance that a move back above $1850 starts the move higher before the end of March or April 2021 – propelling Gold toward the $2300+ peak. The actual peak level predicted by the ADL predictive modeling system is $2315.

predictive modeling

2-Week ADL Predicts Gold May Start To Rally Near Mid-March

This 2-Week Gold Chart highlights a similar ADL price prediction. What we find interesting about this ADL predictive modeling outcome is the similar price predictions originating from vastly different origination points. The Monthly ADL prediction originates from a date of August 1, 2020 – the peak price bar. This 2-Week ADL prediction originates from a date of November 23, 2020 – the intermediate low DOJI bar before the recent continue downward trend targeting the YELLOW price channel. Continue reading "Predictive Modeling Suggests A New Gold Rally"

Is A Blow-Off Top Setting Up

Our research team has become increasingly concerned that the US Fed support for the markets has pushed price levels well above true valuation levels and that a risk of a downside price move is still rather high. Recently, we published a research article highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system results showing the US stock market was 12% to 15% overvalued based on our ADL results. Today, Tuesday, May 26, the markets opened much higher, which extends that true valuation gap.

We understand that everyone expects the markets to go back to where they were before the COVID-19 virus event happened – and that is likely going to happen over time. Our research team believes the disruption of the global economy over the past 70+ days will result in a very difficult Q2: 2020 and some very big downside numbers. Globally, we believe the disruption to the consumer and services sector has been strong enough to really disrupt forward expectations and earnings capabilities. We’ve been warning our friends and followers to be very cautious of this upside price trend as the Fed is driving prices higher while the foundations of the global economy (consumers, services, goods, and retail) continue to crumble away.

Our biggest concern is a sharp downside rotation related to overvalued markets and sudden news or a new economic event that disrupts forward expectations. Q2 data will likely be a big concern for many, yet we believe something else could act as a catalyst for a reversion event. Possibly global political news? Possibly some type of extended collateral damage related to the global economy? Possibly something related to earnings expectations going forward through the rest of 2020 and beyond? We believe Continue reading "Is A Blow-Off Top Setting Up"