Tag: caseyresearch.com

One Chart Explains Why Government Debt Is Dragging on the Economy

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Dan Steinhart, Casey Research

The US has too much debt. This is no longer a controversial statement. Some may believe other problems are more urgent, or that we need to grow our way out rather than slash spending. But even the most spendthrift pundits acknowledge that the debt-to-GDP ratio of the US must decrease if we are to have a stable, prosperous economy.

The private sector has reacted to this over-indebted reality as you would expect: by deleveraging. Since 2008, households and businesses have extinguished of 67% of their debt when measured against GDP. Some paid debt down purposefully, and others defaulted. For our purposes, it doesn't matter how the debt went away. Only that it did.

Meanwhile, the government has done the exact opposite. It has upped its own borrowing by 52% of GDP since 2008. Continue reading "One Chart Explains Why Government Debt Is Dragging on the Economy" →

Doug Casey's Top Five Reasons Not to Vote

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By Doug Casey, Casey Research

L: Doug, we've spoken about presidents. We have a presidential election coming up in the US – an election that could have significant consequences on our investments. But given the views you've already expressed on the Tea Party movement and anarchy, I'm sure you have different ideas. What do you make of the impending circus, and what should a rational man do?

Doug: Well, a rational man, which is to say, an ethical man, would almost certainly not vote in this election, or in any other – at least above a local level, where you personally know most of both your neighbors and the candidates.

L: Why? Might not an ethical person want to vote the bums out?

Doug: He might feel that way, but he'd better get his emotions under control. I've thought about this. So let me give you at least five reasons why no one should vote.

The first reason is that voting is an unethical act, in and of itself. That's because the state is pure, institutionalized coercion. If you believe that coercion is an improper way for people to relate to one another, then you shouldn't engage in a process that formalizes and guarantees the use of coercion. Continue reading "Doug Casey's Top Five Reasons Not to Vote" →

Will an OPEC Nation’s Runaway Inflation Spark an Oil Bull Market?

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By Marin Katusa, Casey Research

In the third century, greed got the best of Rome's emperors. As they spent through the silver in the treasury, one emperor after another reduced the amount of precious metal in each denarius until the coins contained almost no silver whatsoever.

It was the world's first experience with currency debasement and hyperinflation. As people saw the value of their savings evaporate, society grew angry and demanded a scapegoat. Christians became that scapegoat, and Romans turned on them with incredible violence.

This pattern – currency debasement leading to social upheaval and violence – would repeat many times over. Continue reading "Will an OPEC Nation’s Runaway Inflation Spark an Oil Bull Market?" →

What Will the Price of Gold Be in January 2014?

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By Jeff Clark, Casey Research

While many of us at Casey Research don't like making price predictions, and certainly ones accompanied by a specific date, it's hard to ignore the correlation between the US monetary base and the gold price.

That correlation says we'll see $2,300 gold by January 2014.

There are plenty of long-term charts that show a connection between gold and various other forms of money (and credit). Most show that one outperforms until the other catches up. But let's zero in on our current circumstances, namely the expansion of the US monetary base since the financial crisis hit in 2008.

Here's the performance of the gold price compared to the expansion of the monetary base since January 2008. Continue reading "What Will the Price of Gold Be in January 2014?" →

Navigating the US's Politicized Economy

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By Terry Coxon, Casey Research

Absent the state's involvement in the workings of the marketplace, an investor's central task would be to evaluate companies for their ability to efficiently produce and market what customers want. Shrewdness at that one task would lead to the profits investors are looking for. And there would be other consequences.

The stocks of companies that succeeded in convincing investors that they had the right stuff (primarily through good performance) would be bid up. Stocks of companies that failed to make their case to investors would tend to drift down, and any company whose stock drifted low enough would become a takeover target. A takeover would replace underperforming management with a new team of officers and directors – individuals picked by the people who laid out their own money to buy enough shares to control the company.

That's how things work when the government isn't a player in the process. It's a marvel of efficiency and impartiality. Managers who serve investors by serving customers are rewarded. Investors who identify such managers are rewarded. Unskilled managers eventually lose the corporate positions that enable them to make wasteful, money-losing decisions. And investors who are blind to management weakness or who forgive it too willingly lose their own money. Continue reading "Navigating the US's Politicized Economy" →