In light of the news from the land of the rising sun and the sinking currency, let’s reserve NFTRH 315’s only real charting for a big picture monthly view of currencies, to which we usually give just a brief update, and then some misc. big picture monthly charts [not included in this excerpt] as we try to gain perspective on things that may seem illogical to our rational minds.
Yen is losing the next level of support. BoJ saw that support too. I’ll bet they also took note of the big October bounce and found it unacceptable.
The December Dollar was higher overnight as it extended the short covering rally off last Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 78.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.64. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.67. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 78.72. Second support is weekly support crossing at 78.55. Continue reading "Morning Currency Commentary"→
The September Dollar was slightly higher due to light short covering overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 81.02 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.84. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.20. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 81.22. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 81.02. Continue reading "Morning Currency Commentary"→
One of the most important factors affecting the market’s supply-and-demand equation (i.e., selling and buying transactions in the market) is the expectations of the participants — expectations about where prices are headed, fundamental reports and the market’s response to news releases.
The Federal Reserve Board recently adopted an expectations model of the markets for economic forecasting, and now you can apply the same approach to your trading. In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in 1997, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan described the expectations model this way: “Participants in the financial markets are susceptible to waves of optimism. Excessive optimism sows the seed of its own reversal. When unwarranted expectations are ultimately not realized, the unwinding of these excesses can act to amplify a downturn, much the way they can amplify the upswing.” This session teaches you how to identify and take advantage of these waves (trends) of optimism and pessimism and their reversals. You will also learn how Brendan combines elements of the economic science used in the Chicago Board of Trade’s Market Profile and the Nobel Prize-winning theories of expectations (as expressed in sentiment surveys) to develop a method for analyzing and trading the futures markets.
Brendan Moynihan, a foreign exchange trader at First American National Bank (now AmSouth) in Nashville, Tennessee. During his ten-year career in the investment business, he has been a bond market and currency market analyst, a commodity trader and a cash government bond trader. He has also been a hedging and trading consultant for banks and brokerage firms.
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