## Traders Toolbox: Elliott Wave Theory

MarketClub is known for our “Trade Triangle” technology. However, if you have used other technical analysis indicators previously, you can use a combination of the studies and other techniques in conjunction with the “Trade Triangles” to further confirm trends.

Elliott Wave Theory categorizes price movement in terms of predictable waves. Beginning in the late 1920s, R.N. Elliott developed his own concept of price waves and their predictive qualities. In Elliott theory, waves moving with the trend are called impulse waves, while waves moving against it are called corrective waves.

Impulse saves are broken down into five primary price movements, while correction waves are broken down into three. An impulse wave is always followed by a correction wave, so any complete wave cycle will contain eight distinct price movements. Breaking down the primary waves of the impulse/correction wave cycle into subwaves produces a wave count of 34 (21 from the impulse wave plus 13 from teh correction wave), producting more Fibonacci numbers.

Elliott analysis can be applied to time frames as short as 15 minutes or as long as decades, with smaller waves functioning as subwaves of larger waves, which are in turn subwaves of still larger formations. By analyzing price charts and maintaining wave counts, you can determine price objectives and reversal points.

A key element of Elliott analysis is defining the wave context you are in: Are you presently in an impulse wave uptrend, or is it just eh correction wave of a larger downtrend? The larger the time frame you analyze, the larger the trend or wave you find yourself in. Because waves are almost never straightforward, but are instead composed of numerous subwaves and minor aberrations, clearly defining waves (especially correction waves) is as much an art as any other kind of chart analysis.

Fibonacci ratios play a conspicuous role in establishing price objectives in Elliott theory. In an impulse wave, the three principal waves moving in the direction of a trend are separated by two smaller waves moving against the trend. Elliotticians often forecast the tops or bottoms of the upcoming waves by multiplying previous waves by a Fibonacci ratio. For example, to estimate a price objective for wave III, multiply wave I by the Fibonacci ratio of 1.618 and add it to the bottom of wave II for a price target. Fibonacci numbers are also evident in the time it takes for price patterns to develop and cycles to complete.

## "Saturday Seminars" - Controlled Trading

Most traders react to the market, their brokers, and their emotions. When you react because the unexpected has occurred, you are out of control. When you respond as part of a pre-determined game plan, you are in control. In this workshop, Walt will share with you his 4-Step Program of Controlled Trading that will keep you in control of your trading.

Part 1 - Market Analysis. "The trend is your friend;" and not only do we want to know what the trend is, we want to anticipate when the trend will reverse. With cycle analysis, you can both define the trend (long-term, intermediate-term, short-term) and anticipate tops and bottoms (both major tops and trading tops). Part 2 - Oscillator Analysis. Both cycles and oscillators are dependent upon time and price. Quite often cycle highs and lows are accompanied by oscillator extremes. When you know these extreme levels, tops and bottoms can be identified with confidence. Walt also presents easy-to-use techniques to fine-tune the oscillators and build tradable oscillator/cycle combinations to buy bottoms and sell tops. The amazing 3-10 oscillator is a simple and powerful indicator of tops and bottoms. Part 3 - Market Entry and Exit. To be in control, we must first determine the time frame for which we are trading. All too often we use a short-term entry technique and a short-term stop while planning a long-term trade. By defining the time frames before we enter the market, we can apply the correct market entry and exit techniques using weekly, daily, and intra-day techniques to buy on weakness and strength, and to sell on strength and weakness. Part 4 - Controlled Risk Money Management. Walt's "controlled risk" money management will show you how to stay in control of the trade at all times, from planning the trade to market exit.

Walter Bressert has been using market cycles to trade stocks and commodities since the 1970s when his HAL Commodity Cycles was one of the most widely known advisory services focusing on cycles.

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Saturday Seminars are just a taste of the power of INO TV. The web's only online video and audio library for trading education. So watch four videos in our free version of INO TV click here.

## How to create an objective trading plan

Today I'd like everyone to welcome back Dr. Barry Burns. He was a guest blogger a few weeks back and the overwhelming response was "we want him back"! So you asked for him, I called in a personal favor, and here he is again to help teach us.

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Traders who use technical analysis rely on charts to help establish a probability scenario for entering a trade.

We generally look at 3 things:

Price patterns.
Volume patterns.
Indicator patterns.

There have been countless books written and courses sold on how to use these things to predict future market movement. Despite this, countless traders continue to fail in their attempts to become profitable.

Why?

After years of watching my father trade (he had 70 years of experience in the markets) and many years of my own experience, I’ve come to this conclusion:

None of it works!

That’s right. I haven’t found a single price pattern or indicator that could accurately predict the future of the market with enough probability to make any money.

So, is technical analysis an exercise in futility?

Although I haven’t found any one single thing to prove profitable, favorable probability scenarios can be found by combining several indicators. However this has to be done in the right way.

I identify what I call the “energies” of the market, and have selected certain indicators to measure those energies.

5 of the energies are:

Trend.
Momentum.
Cycles.
Fractals.
Blockages.

The key to success is to wait until all 5 of these energies align telling you the same thing (“go long” or “go short”) at the same time.

Indicators measure these energies. Again, I don’t have much confidence in any single indicator. After all, they only do what their name says: They “indicate;” they don’t “tell” you what the market will do next.

However, when all 5 indicators align, and they each measure a different energy, then this is a time when the probability is now on your side.

You can even use this to “score” a trade on a scale of 1-5 depending on how many “energies” (indicators) align in the same direction.

You may choose to be very conservative and only take trades that are very high probability – so you’ll wait until all 5 energies align. The downside of this is that it doesn’t occur very often and therefore you won’t be very active in your trading.

You may decide you need more trades to be psychologically satisfied and keep your interest and focus on the market. In this case you could take trades that rate a 4 (4 of 5 energies align in the same direction at the same time). You will get more trades, but your
win/loss ratio will be slightly lower.

You can choose your favorite indicators to measure these 5 indicators. Which ones you use isn’t the most critical factor … as long as you know how to use them properly.

Using this approach gives you a very measurable and objective way to make decisions and track your trades.

BIO:
Dr. Barry Burns is the owner of Top Dog Trading which teaches people how to avoid the long learning curve in day trading, swing trading and investing.
He started his study of the markets under the direction of his father, Patrick F. Burns, who became independently wealthy through trading and had over 70 years of trading experience before passing away in 2005.
He has been the featured speaker at DayTradersUSA, and developed a 5 Day Course for WorldWideTrders.
Dr. Burns has been a headlining guest speaker for the Market Analysts of Southern California, given seminars around the country at many Wealth Expos as well as many Traders Expos, been interviewed on the Robin Dayne "Elite Masters of Trading" Radio Show, and is the former moderator of the FuturesTalk chat room.
He has a doctorate in Hypnotherapy and is a certified NLP practitioner, and therefore able to help people with the psychology of trading.