Positions In Apple and Yahoo Before Today's Earnings

After the close of business today, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) will release their earnings. I thought it would be interesting to share with you how the Trade Triangles are positioned going into the release of their earnings.

As always, expectations are extremely high for Apple. But it's a different picture for Yahoo who is sitting on a $40 billion cash hoard from their stake in Alibaba.

The question will be, how many iPhones did Apple sell and how did the iMac perform in comparison to the previous quarter? Did people opt for the iPhone 6+ or did they simply go with the regular iPhone 6? Continue reading "Positions In Apple and Yahoo Before Today's Earnings"

Play Defense With This Strategy In 2015

 

Over the holidays, I decided to drive to Orlando and give the Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) a few of my hard earned dollars. My 12 year-old son talked me into riding the Tower of Terror at Disney’s Hollywood Studios.

As a thrill ride, the Tower of Terror plays on three of humankind’s most basic fears: falling, the unknown and the dark. I wasn’t that concerned. In the investment biz, that’s just another day at the office.

But when it comes to the investing, I’ll be honest. I am a concerned about the stock market in 2015.

Here’s why: It’s all about earnings.

At the end of the day, an investor should buy a stock based on the underlying company’s ability to deliver quality, consistent earnings. Those earnings should also be purchased at a fair-to-discounted price as measured by a stock’s price-to-earnings ratio (PE).

In more bullish times, investors are sometimes a bit too optimistic about the future and will push stock prices and their attached PE’s higher. In bearish times, they often become too pessimistic and drive prices and PE’s down.

I took notice after working on this chart of peak PE ratios for the SP 500 Index.

The way the picture tells the story, we’re overly optimistic and at the same valuations as before the 2008-2009 crash.

So are we so positive? The current numbers don’t indicate a profoundly bullish market in 2015.

Consensus estimates for the SP 500's 2015 EPS are around $125. In 2014, the SP saw EPS at around $117.

If things go according to plan, the market would see EPS growth of about 6-to-7%. Curb your enthusiasm. Continue reading "Play Defense With This Strategy In 2015"

Buy Qualcomm (QCOM) While It’s Cheap

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QCOM Chart

On July 23rd of this year, shares of Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) stock were quoted at $81.97, representing the highest price they've reached all year. At the time, its P/E ratio was just north of 20. In an overpriced market, for a company of Qualcomm's caliber - whose double digit earnings growth is projected to hold steady in the long term - one would logically think it was a rare bargain at the time.

But the way in which QCOM's priced has moved in recent months has been largely devoid of logic. On Friday, December 12th, the stock closed at $70.59, just 4% above its 52-week low. The price is indicative of a 14% drop which occurred within just 5 months of hitting its high point. That’s a 34% annualized drop in price.

Speculation Has Been Hurting QCOM's Stock Price

...But for any well-known stock, speculative-based price movements never seem to hold steady in the long term.

Whenever a company has at least some level of earnings growth, its stock becomes an attractive target when its price takes a large enough dip to push it into value territory. In the case of QCOM, this would apply at its current price level. Continue reading "Buy Qualcomm (QCOM) While It’s Cheap"

Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part IX)

Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, peace, terrorism, inflation, monetary policy, etc. -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market

By Elliott Wave International

You may remember that after the 2008-2009 crash, many called into question traditional economic models. Why did they fail?

And more importantly, will they warn us of a new approaching doomsday, should there be one?

This series gives you a well-researched answer. Here is Part IX; come back soon for Part X.

Myth #9: Inflation makes gold and silver go up.

By Robert Prechter (excerpted from the monthly Elliott Wave Theorist; published since 1979)

This one seems like a no-brainer. The government or the central bank prints more bonds, notes and bills, and prices for things go up in response. Gold is real money, so it must fluctuate along with the inflation rate.

Once again, it doesn't happen that way. Let's examine the history of inflation and the precious metals since the low of the Great Depression.

Inflation occurred relentlessly from 1933 to 1970, yet gold and silver remained unchanged over the entire time. True, the government fixed the price. But markets are more powerful than any government, and if the market had wanted precious metals prices higher, it would have made them go higher. Continue reading "Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part IX)"

Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part II)

Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, terrorist attacks, inflation, monetary policy, etc. -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market

By: Elliott Wave International

You may remember that during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, many called into question traditional economic models. Why did the traditional financial models fail?

And more importantly, will they warn us of a new approaching doomsday, should there be one?

That's a crucial question to your financial well-being. This series gives you a well-researched answer.

Here is Part II; come back soon for Part III. Continue reading "Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part II)"