"Saturday Seminars" - Elliott Wave Theory for Short-Term & Intraday Trading

Elliott Wave Theory is often seen as a tool to determine long term cycles in the markets. However, the fractal nature of Elliott Wave makes it just as useful for short-term and intraday trading. In this session, Steven will explain why Elliott Wave is an excellent tool for daytrading. He will discuss how you can make money even when you have the wrong wave count and the wrong assumptions; how Elliott Wave is forward looking and a great money management tool. He will also focus on the weaknesses of wave-based trading and how to overcome them. Finally, he will describe how intermarket analysis, when used together with Elliott wave, can add confidence to your trading analysis and final actions.

Steven PoserSteven Poser is President and Founder of Poser Global Market Strategies Inc., and institutional and retail advisory services firm registered as a CTA with the CFTC which also offers training in technical analysis techniques for trading and analysis professionals. Prior to forming Poser Global Market Strategies Inc., Steven spent nearly eleven years as sole U.S. technical analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York City, sitting, at various times, on the U.S. Government Bond Primary Dealer Desk, the International Bond Desk, and the Currency Desk. Before joining Deutsche Bank, he was a computer analyst for Merrill Lynch Capital Markets and the Western Electric Company, where he helped create the Y2K consulting industry with his Y2K non-compliant coding techniques. He holds a post-graduate certificate in finance, an MBA with a concentration in economics and a BA in mathematics and computer science.

Steven has become a widely acclaimed technical analyst achieving recognition for his prescient calls on the U.S. bond, currency, and stock markets. He has appeared on CNBC, is a regular guest on Reuters Financial Television and articles have appeared in publications such as Forbes, Barrons, Futures, and The International Financing Review. He took the highest honors in the Knight Ridder Financial's trading game competition in 1996 and finished third in 1998 although he competed for only six months of the year.


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Traders Toolbox: Elliott Wave Theory

MarketClub is known for our "Trade Triangle" technology. However, if you have used other technical analysis indicators previously, you can use a combination of the studies and other techniques in conjunction with the "Trade Triangles" to further confirm trends.

Elliott Wave Theory categorizes price movement in terms of predictable waves. Beginning in the late 1980s, R.N. Elliott developed his own concept of price waves and their predictive qualities. In Elliott theory, waves moving with the trend are called impulse waves, while waves moving against it are called corrective waves.

Impulse waves are broken down into five primary price movements, while correction waves are broken down into three. An impulse wave is always followed by a correction wave, so any complete wave cycle will contain either distinct price movements. Breaking down the primary waves of the impulse, correction wave cycle into sub-waves produces a wave count of 34 (21 from the impulse wave plus 13 from the correction wave), producing more Fibonacci numbers. Elliott analysis can be applied to time frames as short as 15 minutes or as long as decades, with smaller waves functioning as subwaves of larger waves, which are in turn sub-waves of still larger formations. By analyzing price charts and maintaining wave counts, you can determine price objectives and reversal points.

A key element of Elliott analysis is defining the wave context you are in: Are you presently in an impulse wave uptrend, or is it just he correction wave of a larger downtrend? The larger the time frame you analyze, the larger the trend or wave you find yourself in. Because waves are almost never straightforward, but are instead composed of numerous sub-waves and minor aberrations, clearly defining waves (especially correction wave) is as much an art as any other kind of chart analysis.

Fibonacci ratios play a conspicuous role in establishing price objectives in Elliott theory. In an impulse wave, the three principal waves moving in the direction of the trend are separated by two smaller waves moving against the trend. Elliotticians often forecast the tops or bottoms of upcoming waves by multiplying precious waves by a Fibonacci ratio. For example, to estimate a price objective for wave III, multiply wave I by the Fibonacci ratio of 1.618 and add it to the bottom of wave II for a price target. Fibonacci numbers also are evident in the time it takes for price patterns to develop and cycles to complete.


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