Tag: ETF Investing Strategy

Is the Coronavirus a Black Swan Event that Will Cause the Next Recession?

Posted on by Matt Thalman

The deadly Coronavirus has now spread to more than 60 countries around the world and infected more than 85,000 people, killing nearly 3,000. The virus began in China, which is where overwhelmingly most of the infections and deaths have occurred, but several other countries have recently seen dramatic spikes in infections.

The virus, which was initially diagnosed in December 2019, has proven difficult to contain. However, based on reports from China, the spread of the virus can be slowed, only after what some would consider ‘extreme’ measures. Those measures in China where quarantine orders of the general public, school closures, and businesses shutting down daily operations. These steps have appeared to help the spread of the virus in China, but have taken their toll on the world economies.

During the last week of February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3,500 points or more than 12%. That is the largest one-week point loss ever for the index, while the percentage decline is the biggest we have experienced since the 2008 financial crisis.

So why did the US markets react the way it did? Continue reading "Is the Coronavirus a Black Swan Event that Will Cause the Next Recession?" →

Money Will Be Made Trading The VIX In 2020

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Market uncertainty creates volatility and the VIX is an index that measures this volatility based on the S&P 500. When news hits the stock market, the VIX increases and when there are fewer outside factors or less uncertainty about the future, we see the VIX fall.

Thus far, in 2020, we have had two situations that have increased volatility in the stock market; the political and military situations between the United States and Iran and the Coronavirus. We are only one month into the year and two major events have occurred which have sent the VIX soaring higher. There will undoubtedly be more pop-up events such as say further political and military issues with Iran or even North Korea perhaps. We will likely see natural disasters pop-up which could cause uncertainty, the situation in England with Brexit and how that is handled could potentially cause uncertainty. Coronavirus is likely to continue to create uncertainty. These are just a few predictions off the top of my head that could cause the VIX to move in the coming months.

One event coming in 2020 that we can all see on a calendar is the Presidential election this year. We know uncertainty about the future causes the VIX to rise and based on the past election of President Donald Trump, we can confidently say that political polling is not very accurate. Thus, we can predict there will be a high level of uncertainty coming down the road with who may be our next President.

With all of this in mind, how do we use this uncertainty to make money? Well, the easiest way is by Continue reading "Money Will Be Made Trading The VIX In 2020" →

Coronavirus - ETFs You Should Avoid

Posted on by Matt Thalman

With the deadly Coronavirus outbreak continuing to spread and countless US companies let alone Chinese firms suspend business in China, even though the true extent of that effect is yet to be known, it’s clear there is going to be some economic effect from this disease.

Like it or not, we all live in a world that is becoming increasingly more interconnected and interdependent. This is the same reason a disease like Coronavirus is so quick to spread around the world and why the impact on stocks is not going to be limited to those firms based solely in China.

This makes it even more difficult for investors to truly determine what is safe and what isn’t in the stock market right now. However, we do have some low hanging fruit in terms of what you should not own at this time.

The first Exchange Traded Funds you should be avoiding right now are going to be the pure-play Chinese equity ETFs. The iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) or the SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC) should be on your sell list or high on the list of what not to buy. These funds invest in Chinese equities and don’t favor one sector more than others. The longer the ‘quarantine’ periods last in the different provinces in China, the more these ETFs are going to be hurt, end of story. However, these could be two outstanding options if you are looking to buy back into the Chinese markets once the Coronavirus scare dies off.

Furthermore, ETFs such as the Continue reading "Coronavirus - ETFs You Should Avoid" →

Worst Performing ETFs in 2019

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Earlier in the month, we discussed the Top Performing ETFs of 2019. In this post, we'll discuss the worst performing ETFs of 2019.

After a down year in 2018, the stock market roared back in 2019 despite a number of political headwinds and many market participants calling for a recession to commence during the second half of the year. Fortunately, that never happened and the market shrugged off most of the negative headlines throughout the year since for the most part, economic numbers remained strong and while corporate earnings and revenue growth may be slowing, they are still in positive territory, which is undoubtedly a good sign.

With the S&P 500 (SP500) ending the year up 28.9%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 22.3%, and the NASDAQ (COMP) increased by 35.2% in 2019, one may wonder how anyone could have lost money in 2019, but unfortunately, some Exchange Traded Funds and therefore investor, did actually see negative returns during a year when the major indexes all crushed it.

Most investors who ended the year negative may want to forget about what happened. But those investors who focus on understanding why their investments went south are the ones who will learn from their mistakes and hopefully avoid making them in the future. The start of a new year is an excellent time to review your investing thesis and try to pinpoint why some investments didn’t turn out the way you imagined they would. So let’s take a look at the top five worst performing ETFs of 2019 in a number of different categories the average investor had to choose from in 2019 to see if you owned one or more of them.

The following table shows the performance of the worst five ETFs in 2019, as well as their performance over the last month, the previous three months, the last five and ten years.

ETFs

The following table shows the performance of the worst five Non-Leveraged ETFs in 2019, as well as their performance over the last month, the previous three months, the last five and ten years. Continue reading "Worst Performing ETFs in 2019" →

Top Performing ETFs in 2019

Posted on by Matt Thalman

With the S&P 500 (SPX) ending the year up 28.9%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 22.3%, and the NASDAQ (IXIC) increased by 35.2% in 2019, much of the year it felt like no matter what you were invested in you were making money. And for the most part, that was true. Some investors made more than others because they had picked what would become the ETF winners of the year.

Did you see market returns, or were you invested in the ETFs that beat the averages and in some cases by a lot? Let’s take a look at the top five best performing ETFs of 2019 in several different categories the average investor has to choose from.

The following table shows the performance of the top five best performing ETFs in 2019, as well as their performance over the last month, the previous three months, the last five and ten years.

ETFs

The following table shows the performance of the top five Non-Leveraged ETFs in 2019, as well as their performance over the last month, the previous three months, the last five and ten years.

ETFs

The following table shows the performance of the top five Equity Non-Leveraged ETFs in 2019, as well as their performance over the last month, the last three months, the last five and ten years. Continue reading "Top Performing ETFs in 2019" →