Tag: FED

The Fed's Great Adventure in Inflation

Posted on by The INO.com Team

In the current policy and media stoked market environment, anything is possible.  It's  the wonderful, magical world of hands-on policy making.  5 years after the financial crisis, but still not enjoying a ramping economy like the good old (and long gone) days of the last great secular bull market (RIP 2000)?  Just sit back, relax and let the man in charge control the image.

"For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: there is nothing wrong with your television set. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to – The Outer Limits." Continue reading "The Fed's Great Adventure in Inflation" →

Fed likely to slow bond buys despite tepid economy

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hiring is soft. Pay is barely up. Consumers are cautious. Economic growth has yet to pick up.

And yet on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to take its first step toward reducing the extraordinary stimulus it's supplied to help the U.S. economy rebound from its deepest crisis since the Great Depression.

If it does, the Fed will likely spark a debate: Has the economy strengthened enough to withstand the pullback?

The answer might not be clear for months.

The Fed is meeting this week at a time of deepening uncertainty about who will succeed Chairman Ben Bernanke when his term ends in January. On Sunday, Lawrence Summers, who was considered the leading candidate, withdrew from consideration. Continue reading "Fed likely to slow bond buys despite tepid economy" →

China, U.S. & Inflation

Posted on by admin

In light of today's positive economic data out of China, I thought I would reproduce a segment from NFTRH 255 (9.8.13) that speculated upon the possibility of a new up cycle in inflation expectations based in large part on China and its credit growth cycle (on which central planners have announced a planned clampdown). 

China industrial, retail data beat forecasts

The Greenspan Fed provides a handy reference as to how long it can take for a withdrawal of policy to manifest in a new economic deceleration. Continue reading "China, U.S. & Inflation" →

Macro Markets Shrug Off Policy Makers, Ready for a Pivot

Posted on by admin

Once again we present the Treasury 'TICs' data for China and Japan, most recently available through June.  It can be argued that these two countries are the T bond market, when considering the volume in which they deal and their strategic status as heretofore T bond consumers.

tics

And now our long-running and most important macro chart, the 'Continuum' in long-term T bond yields; a monthly view of the 30 year yield and its 'limiter' AKA the 100 month exponential moving average (red line). Continue reading "Macro Markets Shrug Off Policy Makers, Ready for a Pivot" →

FOMC Minutes… Head for the Hills!!!

Posted on by admin

While the MSM instigates reasons why we should give a damn about what people who have little control over the T bond market were thinking at the last meeting, why don’t we just tune it all out and manage the markets instead?

tyx, etc

The top panel shows the 30 year yield marching toward the traditional limiter AKA the 100 month EMA.  The pattern measures to 4.5% or so, so there could be a spike above and a hell of a lot of hysteria at some point.  That’s the collective markets; 98% hype, hysterics and emotion and 2% rational management.  Either the 30 year yield is going to do something it has not done in decades (break and hold above the EMA 100) or it is not.  Simple. Continue reading "FOMC Minutes… Head for the Hills!!!" →