Tag: gdp

Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part II)

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, terrorist attacks, inflation, monetary policy, etc. -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market

By: Elliott Wave International

You may remember that during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, many called into question traditional economic models. Why did the traditional financial models fail?

And more importantly, will they warn us of a new approaching doomsday, should there be one?

That's a crucial question to your financial well-being. This series gives you a well-researched answer.

Here is Part II; come back soon for Part III. Continue reading "Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part II)" →

Federal Reserve Policy Failures Are Mounting

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D., Economist

The Fed's capabilities to engineer changes in economic growth and inflation are asymmetric. It has been historically documented that central bank tools are well suited to fight excess demand and rampant inflation; the Fed showed great resolve in containing the fast price increases in the aftermath of World Wars I and II and the Korean War. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, rampant inflation was again brought under control by a determined and persistent Federal Reserve.

However, when an economy is excessively over-indebted and disinflationary factors force central banks to cut overnight interest rates to as close to zero as possible, central bank policy is powerless to further move inflation or growth metrics. The periods between 1927 and 1939 in the U.S. (and elsewhere), and from 1989 to the present in Japan, are clear examples of the impotence of central bank policy actions during periods of over-indebtedness.

Four considerations suggest the Fed will continue to be unsuccessful in engineering increasing growth and higher inflation with their continuation of the current program of Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP): Continue reading "Federal Reserve Policy Failures Are Mounting" →

Taper to Carry … a Logical Chain

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Below is the opening segment of this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 246).  My friend’s request for a 'simple' road map ended up a bit wordy, but I think the chain is logical.

Mail from a friend:  "I think your taper-to-carry idea has legs, but I’d really appreciate it if you went over the basic theory and how you see the dots connecting, if you decide there’s space and time in this weekend's edition at least. What I’d really want is a simple road map, the logical chain if you will. Nothing fancy, just the way it may (repeat may) play out and what its consequences might be."

When this request came in I had already been thinking about trying to put this all together in a logical sequence since 'T2C' was graduated to an actual plan from a thesis last week.

The idea was first introduced in NFTRH 241 on June 2, which was the week that the BKX-SPX ratio broke out to the upside and long-term Treasury bond yields broke up from bottoming patterns.  In the ensuing 5 weeks the macro fundamentals and technicals have only become firmer in support of T2C. Continue reading "Taper to Carry … a Logical Chain" →

Upsurge or Downturn - What’s coming next?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

On one hand we have the U.S. GDP growing at its fastest rate in five years… upbeat factory data… a jump in consumer spending… and strong earnings reports from dozens of major players such as Pfizer, UPS, Archer Daniel Midlands, Cummins, and Alcoa.

On the other we’re facing soaring food, fuel, and commodity prices worldwide… a looming collapse of Portuguese and Spanish debt… a downgrade of Japan… protests in Egypt… and, some say, extreme over-confidence in U.S. stock markets – all of which hint at a MAJOR correction…

What does it all mean – are the markets poised to pick up a fresh leg of steam as the recovery continues… or are we on the verge of a painful, new downturn? As far as I’m concerned… Continue reading "Upsurge or Downturn - What’s coming next?" →