Tag: Geroge Yacik

Yellen's Gaffe

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


Is Janet Yellen suddenly signaling an imminent rise in U.S. interest rates?

At a conference in Washington Wednesday sponsored by the Institute for New Economic Thinking, in an answer to a question from co-panelist Christine Lagarde, Yellen said:

"I would highlight that equity-market valuations at this point generally are quite high. Now, they're not so high when you compare the returns on equities to the returns on safe assets like bonds, which are also very low, but there are potential dangers there."

The Federal Reserve chair also had something to say about interest rates. "We could see a sharp jump in long-term rates" after the Fed starts to normalize – i.e., raise – interest rates, she said.

Her words had the desired effect, if indeed that was her desire. Stock prices dropped around the globe, as did bond prices, driving yields sharply higher. The yield on the 10-year German government bund jumped as high as 0.78%, its highest level in more than five months and up from just 0.08% only three weeks ago. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose above 2.20%, its highest level in two months and up more than 35 basis points in the past month. Continue reading "Yellen's Gaffe" →

Dude, Where's My IRA?

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


The experts still tell us we should allocate our retirement portfolio to 60% stocks, 40% bonds, give or take, depending on your age.

But how does a sensible investor do that in this era of zero percent interest rates? Do bonds really have a place in your portfolio anymore? It's a reasonable question to ask.

If you put 40% of your money in safe (i.e. U.S. Treasury) bonds that are unlikely to default, it's essentially dead money, unless you're okay with earning less than 2% a year over the next 10 years.

If you want to earn more than that, you'll have to go way out on the risk curve. And if you're going to do that, you're probably better off putting your money in blue-chip equities or ETFs that pay high dividends. They're arguably safer than junk bonds, and the dividends will cushion your portfolio if stock prices go down.

But then there goes your diversification. You'll have 100% of your portfolio in equities. What happens when the stock market finally corrects? Will your bond portfolio save you? Continue reading "Dude, Where's My IRA?" →

Sometimes You Get No Respect

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


Ocwen Financial Corp. just can’t catch a break.

A recent research report says it does a better job than its competitors of modifying mortgages for struggling homeowners to enable them to stay in their homes. At the same time, some of its bondholders are complaining it does too many modifications at their expense. All along, the company has been the focus of state and federal regulators and consumer groups for supposedly abusing the subprime borrowers it services.

Which is it? Can all of this be true? Continue reading "Sometimes You Get No Respect" →

Are We In A Boom Or A Bust?

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


This is the world we live in today: Stocks are priced as if the global economy is booming, while the bond market is priced as if we’re in a worldwide depression.

Nowhere is this truer than in Europe, where stocks are at or near record highs while yields on sovereign bonds are at record lows, below zero in many cases.

Of course, we’re neither in a boom or a bust. While we’re closer to the former in the U.S., we’re a lot closer to the latter in Europe. The bond market in Europe is telling us that the euro zone economy’s in the tank, which is much closer to reality, while the stock market there is now trading at a seven-year high. Continue reading "Are We In A Boom Or A Bust?" →