The shipping industry is now under scrutiny following a high-profile FBI investigation into Synergy Marine Group. The raid, which occurred in the Port of Baltimore, is linked to the same company’s role in the tragic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge earlier this year, resulting in the deaths of six workers. The U.S. Department of Justice has filed a $100 million lawsuit against Synergy Marine Group, raising serious concerns about the company's operations. And now, federal authorities, including the FBI, EPA’s Criminal Investigation Division, and the Coast Guard, have boarded another Synergy-operated ship, the Maersk Saltoro, for a court-authorized inspection.
As authorities dig deeper into the incident, questions surrounding compliance, infrastructure safety, and potential financial fallout loom large. With ongoing legal battles, regulatory investigations, and a massive infrastructure rebuild expected to last until 2028, the fallout from this incident is far from over.
These developments cast a shadow over the entire shipping industry, as legal and regulatory issues tend to create uncertainties that make investors wary. Moreover, as shipping companies operate on tight margins, incidents like this could lead to stricter regulations, increased scrutiny, and higher operational costs. As Synergy Marine Group grapples with legal and reputational challenges, investor confidence in shipping stocks may falter. Plus, the possibility of similar issues in other companies might prompt a more cautious approach to investing in the sector, at least in the short term.
To regain trust, shipping companies will likely need to prioritize transparency, safety improvements, and risk mitigation. However, these efforts could drive up costs and squeeze profitability across the industry.
Given this backdrop, investors should steer clear of A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S (AMKBY) but keep an eye on Matson, Inc. (MATX). Let’s evaluate the fundamentals of these stocks:
Stock to Avoid: A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S (AMKBY)
AMKBY operates globally in the ocean transport and logistics sector, providing a wide range of services, including container shipping, terminal handling, and supply chain management. Despite its robust service offerings, the company has faced significant challenges recently.
For the fiscal second quarter that ended June 30, 2024, AMKBY’s revenue decreased 1.7% year-over-year to $12.77 billion. Its EBIT fell 40.1% from the year-ago value to $963 million, while its profit for the period came in at $833 million, down 43.9% year-over-year. The company’s earnings per share also dipped 40% from the prior-year quarter to $0.51. Also, its cash flow from operating activities amounted to $1.63 billion, indicating a 41% decline from the same quarter last year.
Analysts expect AMKBY’s revenue and EPS for the current year (ending December 2024) to be $53.18 billion and $1.56, respectively. For the fiscal year 2025, both its revenue and EPS are expected to decline by 7.9% and 76.6% from the prior year to $48.97 billion and $0.37, respectively.
Adding to the bleak outlook, shares of AMKBY have declined more than 12% over the past nine months and nearly 8% year-to-date. Given these challenges and declining financial metrics, it may be wise for investors to steer clear of this stock for the time being.
Stock to Watch: Matson, Inc. (MATX)
Matson is a long-established player in ocean transportation and logistics services, founded in 1882. It plays a critical role in connecting the domestic non-contiguous economies of Hawaii, Alaska, Guam, and Micronesia with its fleet of specialized vessels, including containerships and custom-designed barges.
In the second quarter of 2024 (ended June 30), MATX delivered strong financial results, with total operating revenue rising 9.6% year-over-year to $847.40 million. Its Ocean Transportation segment showed even stronger growth, with an 11.8% increase in revenue, reaching $689.90 million. The company’s operating income stood at $109 million, up 32.3% year-over-year, while its net income grew 40.1% from the year-ago value to $113.20 million. Also, its EPS came in at $3.31, up 46.5% year-over-year.
Matson's consistent performance is reflected in its shareholder returns. On September 9, the company paid its shareholders a quarterly dividend of $0.34 per common share, representing a 6.3% increase over the previous quarter. With a decade of consecutive dividend growth, MATX pays an annual dividend of $1.36, yielding 0.98% at current price levels. Its dividend payments have grown at a CAGR of 9.5% over the past three years and an 8.9% CAGR over the past five years.
Street expects MATX’s revenue for the fiscal third quarter (ending September 2024) to increase 16.9% year-over-year to $967.68 million, while its EPS estimate of $4.66 for the same period indicates a 37.2% year-over-year growth. It is no surprise that the company has topped the EPS and revenue estimates in the trailing four quarters, which is excellent.
In terms of price performance, the stock has returned more than 60% over the past year and nearly 30% year-to-date. Further, analysts’ average price target of $148 indicates a 4.5% upside from the last price, making it a stock worth watching for investors seeking solid growth potential and steady returns.
