Enter Long Position on New Monthly "Trade Triangle" for the DOW and NASDAQ today @ 10,719.94 and 2,341.11 respectively
Tag: MarketClub Techniques
Trader's Whiteboard: Lesson 5
If you’ve made it this far through the series, you’ve learned the basics: reading charts, spotting trends, implementing stops, but what now?
Today Adam shows you what you need to do to tie all of this information together. Becoming a more effective, organized, and successful trader is just one short video away.
Click here to watch Lesson 5 in the Trader's Whiteboard series and take the next step in order to trade like the pros.
Enjoy!
The MarketClub Team
Traders Toolbox: How to use the Directional Movement Index
The Directional Movement Index, commonly called the DMI, is a powerful trend-following indicator. Many false signals generated by indicators such as the stochastics are filtered out by the DMI. Subsequently, this trading and analytical tool gives few signals, but, when generated, they tend to be very reliable.
Many, who at first glance are strangers to the DMI, find they are familiar with the prime component of the index: The ADX or average directional movement index. This discussion will center on the main use of the ADX, the turning point concept.
The DMI consists of three components: The + DI, which represents upward directional movement; the - DI, indicating downward movement; and the ADX, which signifies the average directional movement within a market.
In STRONG UPTRENDING moves, such as the late 1989 and early 1990 rally in the CRB, the + DI and the ADX turn up early in the move and move higher, with the + DI generally holding above the ADX. A high probability signal the uptrend has stalled or ended is generated when the ADX crosses above the +DI and turns down. This signal commonly occurs on the trading period of the trend change or slightly before. It rarely takes more than a few periods past a true trend shift to see the ADX turn down.
The rules for signalling a potential bottom are the same as for a top: Simply substitute the - DI for the + DI. There appears to be one slight difference between tops and bottoms: Generally, the ADX turns from a higher level when marking a top.
Several chart services plot only the ADX. In these instances, it can generally be assumed that a downturn in the ADX which occurs after crossing above 40 will have seen the ADX cross above the + DI if the market had been in an uptrend and above the -DI if in a downtrend. In simple terms, a move by the ADX above 40 followed by a downturn generally signals a probable trend change.
Signals such as those which occurred in May, 1990 and February, 1991 in the CRB index (arrows) can be very valuable in confirming a turn which had been projected by unrelated methods of technical analysis. ADX signals can help confirm the expected completion of a wave structure or to underscore a turn within a critical time period.
The DMI is based on a certain number of periods. I have had the most success with 14 days on daily charts. And with the exception of Treasury Bonds, for which I use 14 weeks, I prefer to use 9 periods on the weekly and monthly charts.
Editors note: While the examples shown are somewhat dated the concept and use of the ADX is not. The ADX indicator is available on MarketClub.
Traders Toolbox Lesson 4: How to profit and use pivot areas effectively
Over the years, I have found certain areas of support and resistance to be especially effective in trend analysis. These special levels have been given the term pivot areas. These are areas which, once reached, act like a pivot man in basketball. The pivot man is faced with the choice of which direction to send the play; once the decision has been made and the ball has been passed, the play generally continues in that direction. When a market reaches a pivot area, a decision needs to be made to go higher or lower, and once a decisive close has been made away from or beyond the pivot area, the direction is likely to continue.
A good example of a pivot area is the 5040 level on the weekly hog chart. When the market has approached this level, it has either clearly turned or definitely con- tinued the existing trend with very little consolidation. Other examples include the 550 level in soybeans, 500 area in silver and sugar, 5500 area in cattle, 1500 level in soybean oil, the 80-00 area in Treasury bonds and the 205 level in soy- bean meal. Many markets exhibit pivot areas especially well on Gann (contract specific continuation) charts.
Traders Toolbox Lesson 3: Change is inevitable
The most powerful ally you can have in trading and analysis is the trend. A market may stay in a given trend for a long period of time, but change is inevitable.
Since change is inevitable, it is important to be able to identify when or where a market may turn. I use an analytical tool called terminal areas to identify a time or a place in the market where a trend potentially may change. Terminal areas are the single most powerful tool I possess.
The word "terminal" is defined as, at or reaching an end. It can also mean a stopping point. The importance of terminal areas is that these are the only places where a market can make a major turn. Very simply, a market cannot make a major change in trend unless it is in a position to do so. When a terminal area is reached, and if the end of the trend is at hand, the old trend will die and a new trend will be born. However, reaching a terminal area does not mean a trend change is automatic. Since terminal areas also serve as a stopping point, a market may experience an interruption of trend instead of a change in trend. An interruption of trend will develop as a congestion area or a sideways pattern, preceding continuation of the trend.
There are six primary areas which can be termed terminal. These are: 1) Major retracement levels, primarily 25%, 38%, 50%, 62%, and 75%; 2) congestion or sideways areas of the past, preferably from weekly, or even longer-term, charts; 3) old highs and lows, again from longer-term charts; 4) trendlines natural trendlines, Andrews lines, Gann angles or whatever your preferred method of drawing trendlines; 5) gaps caused by market action, not those created by the changing of contract months on a continuation chart; and 6) critical points in time, such as cycle turns, anniversary dates, Fibonacci counts, etc.
The combination of several terminal areas greatly enhances the probability of a major turn. Combine two terminal areas and you have a point which has as much as three times the influence of a single terminal area. Three converging terminal areas have the potential to be as much as nine times more powerful than a single area. Occasionally, a convergence of four legitimate terminal areas will occur. This development can evolve into the "home run" type of move.
Terminal areas which have the greatest impact for a major trend change are found on long-term charts. Also, I have found the combinations which have the highest reliability in forecasting a turn usually include a major time point.
