If This Same Pattern Repeats, Watch Out!

For the past nine weeks, the Dow and S&P have been repeating a pattern that if repeated this week, will spell trouble for the markets. The market has been going up and down in a somewhat regular fashion. If you look at a weekly chart of the Dow and S&P, you can see that they have not had two consecutive weeks closing in the same direction, either on the downside or the upside.

Last week we saw the indices close higher for the week and if the pattern repeats, this should be a down week with a lower weekly close.

Here are the key levels to watch today. Should these levels be broken, I would expect the markets to accelerate to the downside. Continue reading "If This Same Pattern Repeats, Watch Out!"

Next Week Could Change Everything

Next week, the Federal Reserve Board is set to meet between the 15th and the 17th to discuss the economy and if they should raise interest rates. There is not a unanimous opinion either in the marketplace, or the Fed itself regarding interest rates.

Should they choose to incrementally raise interest rates, the reaction in the market would tell us a lot about what the next big swing is going to be in stocks. I am not an economist nor do I have a crystal ball or inside track on what the Fed wants to do. What I do know is that the market will tell us what it wants to do and not the Fed. Right now, the major trend is down in all the indices and shows no real signs of reversing that trend any time soon. Continue reading "Next Week Could Change Everything"

Can Apple Pull A Rabbit Out Of A Hat?

Today is Apple's big day to show off all its shiny new toys, the only difference this year is that Apple doesn't seem to have any new surprise rabbits (products) in the hat.

You have to ask yourself, has Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) finally reached its zenith? As a longtime Apple fan and user of many of their products, I find that I am just not upgrading as fast as I once did. For example, I still carry an Apple 5S iPhone and not the new 6 or 6+ iPhone.

Research has shown that the smartphone market is leveling off and is not expected to grow as the market is saturated. The only growth area left in the phone market is the low-end, which is not an area that Apple will enter as it will cannibalize sales of its higher end iPhone. This is a huge concern for Apple, who derives two-thirds of its income from the iPhone. Logically if Apple has reached a saturation point in the smartphone market they cannot grow revenues. Then new revenues are going to have to come from a new whiz-bang product. In today's tech-driven world, that is going to be extremely difficult to do even for Apple. Continue reading "Can Apple Pull A Rabbit Out Of A Hat?"

Summer's Over, But Is The Market?

Summer's over but is the market, that's the burning question on every investors mind as they return from the long Labor Day weekend.

I expect that the volatility that we have seen in the last few weeks will begin to abate and settle down. That would be the normal course of action for this type of market. One of the first questions traders are going to ask themselves is this, is the Federal Reserve going to hike interest rates and if they are by how much?

Another item of interest to traders will be China, which in my opinion is not over with yet.

The last wild card in this bunch has to be the political scene that should be getting into high gear now that Labor Day has passed. The wildcard in the bunch, of course, is Donald Trump, who has defied every political pundits imagination and predictions. Whether you love him or hate him, Donald Trump is channeling the frustration level of the public with career politicians in general. If that were not enough we have Joe Biden is who is contemplating a run for the presidency of these United States. The political cycle this year should be both entertaining and dramatic much more so than previous years. Continue reading "Summer's Over, But Is The Market?"

It's Friday And Things Could Get Ugly

Even before the announcement of non farm payrolls, which is one of the most significant data releases of the summer, the markets were on the decline. One of the reasons for that has to be yesterday's market action, all the indices fell from their best levels of the day and closed at or close to the lows.

Yesterday's close in both the Dow and the S&P 500 was on target to be the lowest Friday close if nothing happened today. The fact that we are down sharply this morning is a huge negative in my book, but is not one that is surprising.

As we go into the long Labor Day weekend look for the markets to be very thinly traded and volatile. I'm looking for a new low Friday close today. The lowest most recent Friday close was 16,559.75 on the Dow and 1,970.89 on the S&P 500. The NASDAQ was the only index to remain above its lowest Friday close yesterday by just a few points. The level to watch in the NASDAQ is 4,717.16, that level represents the lowest most recent close on a Friday. Continue reading "It's Friday And Things Could Get Ugly"