The real price of gold, as adjusted by commodities is making some nice baby steps toward rebounding. Here is a picture of the gold ETF vs. certain key commodity ETF’s and markets, that show the progress of what would be the most desirable condition (a rising real price) for a healthy gold bull.
And then of course there are other notable measures like Gold vs. Stock Markets. Here is the progress vs. SPY and EZU… Continue reading "The Real Price of Gold"
The following is one of a wide range of analytical topics covered in NFTRH 293′s 35 pages this week, much of which is straight ahead technical analysis. But the T Bond market is usually central to an overall macro view at any given time. This segment is not meant to provide actionable direction (other than perhaps to prepare for a potential rise in T bonds yields), it is meant to dig into the mechanics beneath the financial markets in an effort to have people consider that there is much more going on with markets than simple nominal TA or conventional fundamental analysis (PE ratios, growth metrics, reported economic data, etc.) can account for.
10 & 30yr yields have declined to support as NFTRH projected
Yields on long-term Treasuries have continued to decline in line with our view that was contrary the 'Great Rotation' (out of bonds) hype. The [30-year] especially is now close to support and the next play seems like it could be rising yields and declining T bonds. Continue reading "US Treasury Bonds, Gold & Stock Market"
Those micro managing the precious metals are fixating on the Symmetrical Triangle (bearish continuation) and a coming 'Death Cross' of the MA 50 below the MA 200.
The Sym-Tri has been apparent for about three weeks and the Death Cross is hype put forth by those who would make grand TA statements. The Death Cross means next to nothing. I mean, how much good did the Golden Cross that the "community" was pumping in March end up doing?
Gold is bearish and has been bearish by its technicals (below the 50 and 200 MA’s), and ever since the economic soft patch was was put behind us (cold weather, remember?) by its apparent macro fundamentals as well. NFTRH has been keeping this situation locked down and in a box for future reference. The box will be opened when the time is right.
Meanwhile, I'd suggest that people avoid micro managing gold. It is not an idol or a religion, and while there is a whole industry champing at the bit to begin promoting it again, it is just a tool for retaining the value of money. Sometimes tools sit in the toolbox.
As for silver… Continue reading "Gold, Silver & the Macro"
Among its 29 pages of high quality market analysis, this week's NFTRH (#287) reviewed the Commitments of Traders (CoT) structures of a few markets and their implications.
The above CoT graph clearly shows that gold has declined as the structure improved (red arrows). It then bottoms with the circled extremes and rises in conjunction with a degrading structure (green arrows). Gold is still on its journey toward bottoming. Continue reading "CoT – Gold, Silver, Commodities & T Notes"
There is a growing presence out there talking about a potential Inverted Head & Shoulders (IH&S) on the HUI, which NFTRH has had going since mid-late last year. Below is a simple view of it, with last week's 'Week 2 down' making perfect sense (symmetrically speaking) with 'Weeks 1 & 2 up'.
NFTRH subscribers had a heads up (from both a sentiment and technical view) that it was time for traders to take profits and holders to prepare for corrective activity in and around the Ukraine hysterics that threw over the final upside (right side of the neckline). Continue reading "HUI Gold Bugs Index Symmetry"
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