As former President Donald Trump prepares to speak this week at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, the big event is creating the most excitement in the crypto community. Bitcoin USD (BTC) has surged more than 9% over the past month and nearly 58% year-to-date, crossing the $66,500 mark and nearing its all-time high set earlier this year.
Moreover, this week, crypto investors are gearing up for several exciting developments, including the anticipated approvals from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for eight exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold Ethereum (ETH), the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.
These ETFs can become staples in 401(k)s, IRAs, and pension plans, thereby boosting their mainstream acceptance. Notably, many money managers awaiting these approvals already manage ETFs that invest directly in Bitcoin, which sets a precedent for the new ether-focused funds.
Crypto-Friendly Stance From the Trump Administration
The cryptocurrency industry hopes the upcoming U.S. presidential election will usher in a softer approach to enforcement, potentially ending prolonged battles with Wall Street’s primary regulatory body. Former President Donald Trump has recently warmed up to the $2.5 trillion crypto industry and is hosting a Bitcoin-focused fundraiser on July 27.
While the Republican nominee was previously critical of cryptocurrencies, calling bitcoin a “scam,” Trump’s recent remarks have been more supportive, referring to cryptos as “amazing” in an interview with Bloomberg published last week. Legal experts predict a less aggressive stance on the digit-asset space from the SEC should he be elected.
According to data from the betting application Polymarket, there is a 62% chance of Donald Trump beating Kamala Harris. Following the assassination attempt on Trump last Saturday, July 20, the odds of him winning the U.S. presidential 2024 election have surged considerably.
Also, Trump chose crypto-friendly Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) as his vice-presidential candidate. In 2022, Vance held over $250,000 worth of Bitcoin.
Michael Selig, partner at Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP, suggests that a Trump administration would likely seek to “reset and rethink the SEC’s crypto regulatory policy,” which would involve resolving ongoing enforcement actions and investigations initiated under the current administration.
Under President Joe Biden, the SEC, led by Chair Gary Gensler, has intensified its regulatory efforts, particularly following the collapse of crypto exchange FTX in 2022. The SEC has launched numerous enforcement cases against exchanges and broker-dealers for failing to register properly under securities laws.
Gensler maintains that most cryptocurrencies are securities and should, therefore, register with the agency, a stance that has led to several high-profile legal battles. While the SEC has settled some cases, litigation involving firms like Kraken, Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN), and Binance is still tied up in court. Also, the SEC has closed some investigations, including one into Ethereum and another about BUSD, a Binance-branded crypto issued by New York-based Paxos.
“Remember, if Trump gets elected, the Republicans can immediately change who the chair is,” stated Austin Campbell, a blockchain consultant and adjunct professor at Columbia Business School. “What this means in practical terms is that many of these cases — which have been shotgunned out at highly variable degrees of quality and generating highly variable decisions that are increasing confusion — could all be settled instead of having to go forward.”
The GOP, in its 16-page party platform last week, explicitly criticizes the current administration’s approach to cryptocurrencies, stating, “Republicans will end Democrats’ unlawful and unAmerican Crypto crackdown.”
As the election approaches, the crypto community remains optimistic that a Trump administration could herald a new era of regulatory clarity and support for digital assets.
Bitcoin to Surge as Trump’s Chances of Winning Election Rise
Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” predicts that Bitcoin could surge to $105,000 by August 2025 if Donald Trump wins the upcoming U.S. presidential 2024 election. Trump’s pro-crypto stance could drive up the prices of major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ether, as well as other altcoins.
Additionally, regulatory clarity and support could pave the way for more financial products, such as ETFs and derivatives, further integrating cryptocurrencies into traditional financial markets.
Moreover, Bitcoin traders anticipate prices reaching up to $70,000 in the near term, driven by positive sentiment in the broader crypto sector ahead of the U.S. elections and a decrease in selling pressure from key wallets.
“The rebound in Bitcoin price shows the market has a more optimistic outlook in the near-term macro environment,” said Lucy Hu, senior analyst at Metalpha, in a message to CoinDesk. “The market was encouraged by Trump’s vice president pick, which indicates a more crypto-friendly administration and policies.”
“BTC could hover around the 120-day moving average, and the price may have the momentum to go up to $68k or even $70k, but we need to continue to monitor closely the Fed policies and implications of Mt Gox,” Lucy Hu added.
“A change in perspective on the digital assets industry in the US is creating expectations of more favorable policy toward Bitcoin and crypto as the elections look to capture single issue voters and special interest groups,” stated Nick Ruck, head of growth at BitU Protocol.
Ruck added, “There’s also less expected sell pressure in the long term as Mt Gox distributes funds to creditors.”
Bottom Line
With his pro-crypto stance, the potential of Trump winning the U.S. presidential 2024 elections could mark a significant shift in the regulatory landscape. A supportive regulatory environment could provide much-needed clarity for the crypto community, encouraging innovation and attracting more investors.
The anticipated SEC approvals for Ether ETFs further suggest a growing acceptance of digital assets in mainstream financial products like 401(k)s, IRAs, and pension plans, paving the way for broader adoption.
With Trump’s friendly crypto stance and the possibility of a more favorable regulatory environment, digital assets like Bitcoin and Ether could see a substantial surge in the near term. The potential changes underscore the importance of regulatory support in driving the growth and adoption of cryptocurrencies.
