More jobs needed to taper bonds

Many Federal Reserve members agreed last month that the job market's improvement would have to be sustained before the Fed would reduce its bond purchases, according to minutes of their June meeting. Several felt confident that a pullback in bond purchases could occur soon.

The minutes released Wednesday echo remarks Chairman Ben Bernanke made at a news conference after the meeting. Bernanke said the Fed would likely slow its bond purchases later this year and end them around mid-2014 if the economy continued to strengthen. The bond purchases have helped keep long-term interest rates low to spur spending.

Since the purchases began in September, the economy has added an average 204,000 jobs a month, up from 174,000 jobs in the previous nine months. Still, unemployment remains a high 7.6 percent.

The minutes showed that Fed members struggled with how best to convey the Fed's thinking about its timetable for bond purchases. Some wanted to explain it in the post-meeting statement. Others felt the statement might be misinterpreted. In the end, most participants thought Bernanke should lay out the Fed's thinking in his news conference _ and stress that any pullback in bond purchases would depend on the economic outlook. Continue reading "More jobs needed to taper bonds"

Taper to Carry … a Logical Chain

Below is the opening segment of this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 246).  My friend’s request for a 'simple' road map ended up a bit wordy, but I think the chain is logical.

Mail from a friend:  "I think your taper-to-carry idea has legs, but I’d really appreciate it if you went over the basic theory and how you see the dots connecting, if you decide there’s space and time in this weekend's edition at least. What I’d really want is a simple road map, the logical chain if you will. Nothing fancy, just the way it may (repeat may) play out and what its consequences might be."

When this request came in I had already been thinking about trying to put this all together in a logical sequence since 'T2C' was graduated to an actual plan from a thesis last week.

The idea was first introduced in NFTRH 241 on June 2, which was the week that the BKX-SPX ratio broke out to the upside and long-term Treasury bond yields broke up from bottoming patterns.  In the ensuing 5 weeks the macro fundamentals and technicals have only become firmer in support of T2C. Continue reading "Taper to Carry … a Logical Chain"

Physical Gold and Paper Gold Battling for Supremacy

The Gold Report: In your latest newsletter, you advocate that gold investors pay close attention to the Federal Reserve meeting taking place on June 18. What are you looking for out of that meeting?

Brien Lundin: The main driver for gold right now is quantitative easing (QE). An investor trying to figure out where the gold market is heading in the near to intermediate term needs to focus on QE. Investors should look for clues to the future prospects of the Fed's QE programthat's what's going to drive gold in the short and intermediate term. The question really is: To QE or not to QE? The next Fed meeting will be a prime indicator of that, and the one after that and the one after that.

My general view is that the reports of a resurgent U.S. economy are way ahead of themselves and some data points are indicating that the recovery is not that robust and may even be in danger. The jobs numbers will shed some light on this. If such a scenario develops, then the snap back for gold would be pretty dramatic. A weakening U.S. economy would be bullish for gold because it's bullish for continued QE, and that's the real factor for gold going forward.

TGR: Besides the jobs numbers and the Fed meeting minutes, what indicators are you watching to get some insight into whether the economy really is improving? Continue reading "Physical Gold and Paper Gold Battling for Supremacy"

Bernanke Approval Rating

Bernanke gave his second speech last Wednesday voicing his pessimism regarding the state of the U.S. economy. After his speech, people were left with mixed emotions on whether there is any worth to his words and if he (and the FED) will ever make this attempted recovery successful. So we are taking our own approval rating...

Are Bernanke's tactics right for this economic state?

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POLL: Will The End Of QE2 Determine Gold’s Destination?

The second run of quantitative easing is coming to a close and no one can quite agree on how it will effect the market moving forward. Regardless of your opinions on QE and QE2, the government's "easy money" policy has a profound influence on the price of gold, stocks, and the dollar.

Do you think the $100 sell off that occurred in gold this week is a sign of things to come, or will the price move higher by year’s end?

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